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The impact of regional disparities on economic growth

100%
GURGUL H., LACH Ł.
Operations Research and Decisions
|
2011
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vol. 21
|
issue 2
17-43
EN
The authors investigated how economic growth affects the disparity in the distribution of regional income in Poland and vice versa. The research was based on annual data covering the period 2000–2009. In general, the research was divided into two main parts. First, the authors examined the evolution of the level of spatial inequalities in income in Poland over the last decade using the concepts of sigma and beta convergence. Next the nature of causal dependences was investigated between this inequality and economic growth. It was found that Polish regions did not converge with respect to the distribution of income as total GDP grew. The second part of the research provided evidence to claim that this inequality caused growth. Moreover, the evidence was also found that growth affected regional inequality. Finally, the authors noticed that the effects of both these factors were positive. The results suggest that as a consequence of rapid economic growth, some regions in Poland seized new opportunities, while less developed regions were unable to keep up with the challenging requirements of a decade of fast economic growth.
2
Content available remote

Linear versus nonlinear causality for DAX companies

100%
GURGUL H., LACH Ł.
Operations Research and Decisions
|
2009
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vol. 19
|
issue 3
27-46
EN
This study provides empirical evidence of the joint dynamics between stock returns and trading volume using stock data for DAX companies. Our research confirms the hypothesis that traditional linear causality tests often fail to detect some kinds of nonlinear relations, while nonlinear tests do not. In many cases, the test results obtained by use of empirical data and simulation confirm a bidirectional causal relationship, while linear tests did not detect such causality at all.
PL
W badaniach empirycznych, prezentowanych w literaturze a dotyczących zależności pomiędzy wielkością obrotów, stopami zwrotu i ich zmiennością, jest o wiele mniej wyników dotyczących przyczynowości nieliniowej niż liniowej. Naszą pracę wyróżnia spośród innych prac przede wszystkim to, że w artykule są przedstawione nie tylko wyniki z zakresu przyczynowości liniowej, ale i nieliniowej. Stosując testy przyczynowości liniowej i nieliniowej dla giełdy frankfurckiej zbadano, czy znajomość wielkości obrotów może być pomocna w prognozowaniu stóp zwrotu i ich zmienności. Badanie przeprowadzono w trzech wersjach: dla wielkości obrotów z usuniętym trendem, dla oczekiwanej wielkości obrotów i nieoczekiwanej wielkości obrotów. Badania, przeprowadzone zarówno za pomocą testu przyczynowości liniowej, jak i nieliniowej, potwierdzają istnienie przyczynowości od oczekiwanej wielkości obrotów do stóp zwrotu i ich zmienności. Drugim empirycznie stwierdzonym interesującym faktem jest równoczesne występowanie statystycznie istotnej zależności w odwrotnym kierunku. Natomiast w przypadku uwzględnienia w badaniach nieoczekiwanej wielkości obrotów przyczynowości są słabe, a w większości nieistotne statystycznie. Jednakże w przypadku tej wersji wielkości obrotów test nieliniowy wykrywa więcej istotnych wypadków niż test liniowy. W pracy, w celu porównania poprawności wskazań liniowych i nieliniowych testów przyczynowości, przeprowadzono też badania symulacyjne na bazie sześciu wybranych modeli nieliniowych.
3
Content available remote

International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy

100%
GURGUL H., LACH Ł.
Operations Research and Decisions
|
2010
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vol. 20
|
issue 3-4
5-29
EN
The paper presents the results of examinations of linear and nonlinear causalities performed for international trade involving the Polish economy and its economic growth. In order to infer the impact of the world crisis on the Polish economy, two samples have been studied (containing quarterly data) – a full sample (Q1 1996–Q3 2009) and pre-crisis sample (Q1 1996–Q3 2008). The results of linear causality tests support the existence of feedback between the growth rate of exports and growth in gross domestic product (GDP) irrespectively of the time period chosen. For both the samples examined, no direct causal links between the growth rates of GDP and imports were detected. One can only suppose the existence of indirect links before the crisis. Bidirectional causality was found for growth rates of exports and imports only for the pre-crisis sample. Some weak evidence of a causal link running from the growth rate of imports to the growth rate of exports was also found for the period that covers the crisis, which may be interpreted as a confirmation of the fact that growth in imports also precedes growth in exports in bullish periods. It results from our computations that, at the time of the financial crisis of 2008, the main factor that caused Polish GDP growth to remain positive was domestic demand. The results of nonlinear causality analysis provided only weak evidence for causality running from GDP to exports, from GDP to imports and from imports to exports.
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