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Bartosz Michalski, Międzynarodowa koordynacja polityki konkurencji. Budowa ładu korporacyjnego w gospodarce światowej, Difin, Warszawa 2009, s. 255

100%
Kaliszuk E.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
|
2010
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vol. 242
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issue 9
109
2
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Wpływ redukcji ceł na towary nierolne w rundzie Doha na handel zagraniczny Polski

63%
Hagemejer J., Kaliszuk E.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2007
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vol. 216
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issue 5-6
61-83
EN
The paper examines the effects of a multilateral reduction of customs duties on non-agricultural goods, under a “nonlinear Swiss formula,” on Poland’s foreign trade, including both exports and imports. As part of the Doha Development Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO), countries are trying to work out a mathematical formula according to which national customs tariffs would be reduced. This is the key focus of ongoing negotiations concerning Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA). The author analyzes the newest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), known as GTAP 6.0, according to four scenarios. The GTAP model is a multiregional, multi-sector model that is often used to study the effects of commercial policy. The author describes the results of the multilateral negotiations according to their state as of the end of August 2006. The scenarios analyzed by the author differ in terms of “reduction coefficient A” under the Swiss formula. However, in all variants, the coefficient for developed countries is lower than that for developing countries. The analysis shows that the reduction of customs duties will have a limited impact on Poland’s foreign trade. All scenarios point to a small increase in the volume of exports and an insignificant drop in the volume of imports, accompanied by a rise in import prices and a decline of export prices. The deterioration of the country’s terms of trade is the most visible in the most radical scenario. The European Union as a whole would be more visibly affected than Poland by the planned reduction of customs duties. Similarly, the move would lead to limited changes in the overall volume of industrial production in Poland, though, in terms of individual sectors, there will probably be a clear drop in the production of clothing, textiles and leather goods, accompanied by a small increase in output in the wood industry. Changes in the volume of trade, production and employment are the most visible in the radical scenario. In all options, the reduction of customs duties will have no perceptible influence on Poland’s gross domestic product, though GDP in purchasing power parity terms will decrease as a result of deteriorated terms of trade. There will be a marginal deterioration in the overall level of prosperity in Polish society. This will be due to the fact that the drop in terms of trade will outweigh the increase of consumer surplus.
3
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Strefa wolnego handlu Unia Europejska i Ukraina - skutki handlowe dla Polski

63%
Ambroziak Ł., Kaliszuk E.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2009
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vol. 236
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issue 11-12
141-163
EN
In March 2007, the European Union and Ukraine opened negotiations on an association agreement to replace the existing agreement on partnership and cooperation. The main part of the new agreement will be a deal on the establishment of a free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine. The paper aims to examine the commercial implications of such a zone for Poland, especially as Ukraine is one of the largest export markets for Polish goods and Poland is the second largest commercial partner for Ukraine in the EU27 in terms of trade volume. The authors estimate the results of reducing import duties in terms of trade creation and diversion effects. They also examine the potential implications of lifting export duties by Ukraine and of using trade protection policies by both sides. Even though the estimated commercial effects are moderate, the authors say, they conclude that a free trade zone between the EU and Ukraine would benefit Poland’s trade. The zone would enhance Polish-Ukrainian relations without harming bilateral commerce, according to Ambroziak and Kaliszuk.
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