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The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security

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Kozicki B., Zelkowski J., Mitkow S., Gontarczyk M.
Polish Political Science Yearbook
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2021
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issue 4 (50)
149-158
EN
The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.
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Evolution of the Methodology of Conducting Military Operations on the Example of the Clash of Two-Speed Civilisations During the Conflict in Ukraine 2014–2022

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Mitkow S., Górnikiewicz M., Sługocka E.
Polish Political Science Yearbook
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2022
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issue 4(51)
35-46
EN
The difference in the methodology of conducting military operations by Russian and Ukrainian troops during the war ongoing since February 2022 is striking. It does not result only from the adopted convention of conducting these activities but is conditioned on a much deeper mental level resulting from cultural conditions. They determine the perception and understanding of the phenomenon of war. In other words, the operational and tactical methodology can be adapted to changing realities, provided that the essence of such a change is understood in terms of achieving the assumed military and non-military goals. Furthermore, these goals could be achieved by conducting military operations according to a completely different methodology, probably with much greater effectiveness. Why, in such a perspective, did the Russian side choose such a barbaric way of conducting war, characterising the methodology of military actions of the past decades or even centuries? This paper aims to answer the research question: What premises condition the Russian methodology of military action in the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2022? Empirical methods were employed to obtain an answer to this question.
3
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The Forecasting of Military Expenditure in Saudi Arabia in Terms of Military Security

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Kozicki B., Zelkowski J., Mitkow S., Gontarczyk M.
Polish Political Science Yearbook
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2022
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issue 2 (51)
61-68
EN
The study attempts to forecast military expenditure in Saudi Arabia for 2020. The research began with a comparative analysis of military expenditure in Saudi Arabia and Russia between 2000–2019. For this purpose, bar charts were used on which the calculated values of the dynamics indices with a fixed (2000) and movable (previous year) base of the considered primary data were outlined. The study was preceded by constructing a multiple regression model to evaluate the impact of the increase in military expenditure in Russia on Saudi Arabia. This model shows that as military spending in Russia increases by one million dollars, military spending in Saudi Arabia increases by $ 0.085 million. Then, data on the expenditure incurred by both analyzed countries in 2020, obtained from various internet sources, was outlined. Their analysis made it possible to select only qualitative methods in the form of expert opinions for the forecast. Saudi Arabia's military expenditure forecast was $ 57 500 million.
4
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COVID-19 and the Politics of Russia and Saudi Arabia: Oil Prices and Security

100%
Kozicki B., Mitkow S., Jaśkiewicz P.
Safety & Defense
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2021
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vol. 3
22-31
EN
The aim of the study is an attempt to examine the impact of oil prices on the politics of Russia and Saudi Arabia in terms of economic security. This research covers the period from February 1, 2000 to March 10, 2020. This study uses qualitative and quantitative methods to measure the effectiveness of Russia's influence in Saudi Arabia. The research began with a multidimensional comparative analysis and evaluation of data on the price of one barrel of crude oil in the world on a daily basis in the period 2000-2020 in terms of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the politics of Russia and Saudi Arabia. The considered data obtained from the website www.eia.gov was grouped and specified in order to discover the regularities governing them. Then, advanced research tools were used to analyze and evaluate them dynamically in the form of categorized box-plot charts. The conclusion of the research is that low prices of crude oil per barrel over a long period of time may be a reason for the emergence of the global financial crisis. As a result, Russia suffers financial losses. Overcoming the crisis requires signing international agreements which are hampered due to the own interests of the leaders of world economies: the United States, China and Russia.
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