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Heurystyki w prognozowaniu w przedsiębiorstwie

100%
Dittmann I.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2014
|
issue 4(46)
98-107
EN
Forecasts built for the needs of the enterprise may be inaccurate. Actual forecast errors (errors ex post) may be greater than the user-defined acceptable prediction errors. One reason for this may be the impact of psychological factors on the forecaster (eg. emotions) and the application of heuristics (usually unconsciously). The purpose of this article was, first, to draw attention to the issue of the possibility of various kinds of heuristics during the construction of forecasts in the company and second to indicate the possibility of eliminating the adverse effects of heuristics on the course and outcome of the forecasting process.
2
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Open-end debt investment funds and bank deposits in Poland 1995-2015. A comparison of the a posteriori probability (chance) of failure to achieve the level of aspiration

100%
Dittmann I.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2016
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issue 2 (52)
77-97
EN
The aim of the study was to compare, a posteriori, the probabilities (chances) of failure to achieve the level of aspiration (expressed in expected rates of return) on open-end debt investment funds (debt OEF), as well as the rates of return on bank deposits in Poland in light of different investment horizons. The data covered the periods of operation of each individual fund. The values for the probability of not achieving the level of aspiration (PNAL) have been calculated on the basis of empirical probability distributions of the rates of return on funds and bank deposits, obtained through the use of a rolling window of observation. Studies have shown the existence of a lower limit for the level of aspiration, the achievement of which is required in order for investment in a fund to be chosen over investment in a bank deposit. Based on research on the investment horizons which had, in the past, guaranteed the achievement of a given rate of return on a fund, both good and bad funds were identified. The results were largely influenced by the very high interest rate on bank deposits in Poland in the period 1995 – 2001 (in the case of the oldest funds) and by the boom on the Treasury bond market in 2011 – 2012 (for the youngest funds).
3
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The assessment of the suitability of equity investment funds for the investor. The use of distribution returns parameters

100%
Dittmann I.
Studia Ekonomiczne
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2017
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vol. 323
24-39
EN
The aim of this research was to show the possibilities and methods of applying the parameters of return distributions in assessing the suitability of an equity investment fund for an investor. The study was conducted for 15 Polish equity funds. The empirical return distributions were constructed on the daily quotation from the period 2005-2016 for 10 investment horizons. It was stated that: 1) due to the significant variability which can occur in the values of the parameters of the return distributions, the investor should not rely exclusively on the average values, 2) the choice of equity fund can be narrowed down to a group of 2 to 4 of the best based on all or most of the parameters of the return distribution, 3) the investor does not always have to choose between funds with the lowest risk and funds giving the possibility of the highest above-average returns, 4) there was equity fund, which should not be the object of an investor’s interest because of the worst parameters values.
PL
Celem badania było ukazanie możliwości i metod użycia parametrów rozkładu stóp zwrotu w ocenie odpowiedniości funduszu akcyjnego dla inwestora. Badanie zostało przeprowadzone dla 15 polskich funduszy akcyjnych. Empiryczne rozkłady stóp zwrotu dla 10 horyzontów inwestycyjnych skonstruowano na podstawie notowań dziennych z lat 2005-2016. Stwierdzono m.in., iż: 1) wybierając fundusz akcyjny nie powinno się opierać wyłącznie na wartościach średnich parametrów rozkładu stóp zwrotu dla grupy funduszy akcyjnych, 2) wybór funduszu akcyjnego można zawęzić do grupy 2-4 najlepszych ze względu na wszystkie lub większość parametrów rozkładu stóp zwrotu; 3) inwestor nie zawsze musi wybierać między funduszami akcyjnymi o najmniejszym ryzyku a funduszami akcyjnymi dającymi szansę na najwyższe ponadprzeciętne stopy zwrotu; 4) istnieją fundusze akcyjne, które nie powinny być przedmiotem inwestycji inwestora ze względu na najniższe wartości wszystkich parametrów rozkładów stóp zwrotu.
4
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The impact of planning conditions on residential land prices in the district of Bydgoszcz

51%
Krajewska M., Szopińska K., Dittmann I.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2014
|
issue 4(46)
108-120
EN
Real estate market analyses are the basis for making many investment decisions, including residential land market. Residential lands may have different planning conditions, which in the literature are also called states planning space. In the paper the authors diagnose conditions of planning and carry out an analysis of transaction prices of land designated for residential development and residential services. The purpose of the article was an attempt to answer the question whether planning conditions affect prices of undeveloped land allocated for housing development in the rural district of Bydgoszcz. Based on transaction price data from the years 2011-2012 there were calculated average transaction prices and examined their variability. In order to assess the impact of planning conditions on undeveloped land prices two-way analysis of variance test and the test for two means were used. The results indicate that the planning conditions have an impact on the price of undeveloped land in most communes of district of Bydgoszcz.
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