Theoretical background: The order to assess the suitability and adequacy of financial instruments by producers and distributors of investment products was introduced with the first Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID). In conditions of high inflation, it is justified to assess the suitability of investment products in terms of protection of the real value of capital. Purpose of the article: The research aims to indicate which groups (or subgroups) of open-ended investment funds (distinguished according to the investment policy) were suitable for an investor whose financial goal was to protect the real value of capital in the period of rising inflation and increased interest rates in Poland. Research methods: Nominal and real HPY from funds managed by Polish investment fund companies (TFI) and foreign funds were examined in two investment horizons: one-year (1 May 2021 – 1 May 2022) and half-year (1 December 2021 – 1 May 2022). Two research hypotheses were formulated: 1) commodity funds were the suitable funds for the investor, whose aim was to protect the real value of capital in the analyzed period; 2) other types of funds (than commodity funds) were not suitable for an investor whose purpose was to protect the real value of capital. Two main criteria were used to assess the suitability of the (sub)group of funds. For an investor aiming for complete protection of the real value of capital, these were: 1) the percentage of funds with non-negative real HPY and 2) the minimum value of real HPY in the (sub)group. For an investor who only needs partial real capital value protection, these were: the percentage of funds with a positive nominal HPY and the minimum value of the nominal HPY in the (sub)group. Main findings: The first research hypothesis has been positively verified. If the investor’s goal was total protection of the real value of capital in each researched horizon, the second research hypothesis can be considered positively verified. However, if the suitability criteria do not have to be met for each of the horizons studied, or if the investor’s satisfactory objective was partial protection of the real value of capital, then the second hypothesis should be rejected.
This article presents the results of a study concerning the forecasting of mean transaction prices per 1 m2 in eight residential markets in Poland. The first research problem was an attempt to study the dependencies between the similarity of price development between these markets and the values of the errors of price forecasts that were constructed based on this similarity. The analysis showed a lack of a negative linear relationship. This means that a greater similarity in price development in different markets did not allow for the construction of forecasts with a smaller error. The second research problem was a construction of global mean price forecasts. The results showed that the proposed method of constructing global forecasts was, compared to the traditional one, better in the case of some markets, and worse for others.
The paper provides a statistical analysis of behaviour of average transaction prices of 1m2 of apartment space on local markets in the Silesian Voivodeship. The conducted research reveals that time and space analogies occur on local apartment markets in this voivodeship, i.e. the similarity of behaviour of transaction price changes with time. The shape similarity measure was applied for evaluating the degree of similarity and identifying the amount of lags. It enabled distinguishing leading, convergent and imitating markets among the analysed apartment markets. There was analysed also if the phenomenon of sigma convergence or sigma divergence occurs among local markets. Sigma convergence in the period of 1Q2006 - 1Q2009 and the stabilization in the period of 2Q2009 - 2Q2011 was stated.
This paper applies to investment decisions on housing markets based on forecasts housing prices constructed on the basis of expert opinion using the Weibull distribution. The first part shows the different ways to generate or increase revenue from property. The second part addresses the issue of using different types of price forecasts on the housing market that are useful in making investment decisions. The third section deals with the aim of the study i.e. indicates the possibility of using the model of subjective probability Weibull distribution built on the judgment of experts to construct house price forecasts and to assess the chances of profitability of investment.
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