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THE POST-ACCESSION MIGRATION OF POLES - CONTINUITY OR CHANGE? (Poakcesyjne migracje Polakow - ciaglosc czy zmiana?)

100%
Anacka M.
Studia Migracyjne - Przegląd Polonijny
|
2010
|
vol. 36
|
issue 4(138)
37-54
EN
The day of becoming one of the European Union Member States appeared as a key moment in developing migration processes in Poland. Obviously, it is the magnitude of the outflow that population of Poland is experiencing since that moment, that makes this emigration unique. However, as Grabowska-Lusinska&Okolski (2009) show, it is also its structure. Grabowska-Lusinska&Okolski proved that the key factor of post-accession change in migration processes was opening of British and Irish labour markets for New Member States workers. In this paper we are trying to examine if the 'late' post-accession period (2007-2009) brought a similar change, as during these years 10 EU Member States allowed Poles to access their labour markets without any restrictions. By using a synthetic measure of selectivity index (Cieslak 1992: 252) we show that the structure of emigration in the 'late' post-accession period seems to stay unchanged, even though there are some premises that the opposite holds true.
2
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Selektywność emigracji i migracji powrotnych Polaków – o procesie „wypłukiwania”

63%
Anacka M., Fihel A.
Central and Eastern European Migration Review
|
2012
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vol. 1
|
issue 1
57-67
EN
The paper contains the analysis of selectivity of emigration and return migration to Poland in years 2004-2008. By using Migration Selectivity Index with comparable data (Labour Force Survey) we were able to confirm the hypothesis of ‘washing-out’ of selected categories of Polish population: men, people with post-secondary, secondary and vocational level of education, inhabitants of rural areas and those who live in agricultural households. We made an attempt to estimate the scale of the phenomenon and described its demographic consequences. Our analysis corresponds with the ‘crowding out’ hypothesis (Okólski 2011, 2012; cf. Grabowska-Lusińska, Okólski 2009; Anacka, Okólski 2010) stating that the post-accession emigration from Poland gave a chance to an economically ‘redundant’ labour force to move to regions and economic sectors with high demand for labour.
3
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Prognoza ludności dla Polski na podstawie ekonometrycznej prognozy strumieni migracyjnych

63%
Anacka M., Janicka A.
Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician
|
2018
|
issue 8
5-27
PL
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie wyników prognozy ludności Polski na lata 2015—2060, opartej na ekonometrycznym modelu strumieni migracyjnych. Od dotychczas tworzonych prognoz i projekcji podejście to odróżnia się trzema istotnymi założeniami: przyjęciem za przedmiot prognozy populacji rezydentów, zastosowaniem ekonometrycznych narzędzi do szacowania czterech strumieni migracyjnych (napływu oraz odpływu w podziale na cudzoziemców i Polaków) oraz uwzględnieniem (w sposób formalny) niepewności uzyskiwanych oszacowań. Wyniki badania wskazują na zgodność zastosowanych modeli strumieni migracyjnych z teoriami migracyjnymi. Prognozy przewidują nasilenie imigracji do Polski w ciągu najbliższych czterech dekad. Należy się przy tym spodziewać spadku liczby ludności i starzenia się populacji, choć tempo tych dwóch zjawisk będzie wolniejsze, niż przewidują to inne analizy demograficzne.
EN
The aim of this article is to present the results of a population forecast for Poland for the years 2015—2060, based on an econometric model of migration flows. This approach differs from existing forecasts and projections in three significant ways: the projected population are residents, the four migration flows (i.e. inflow and outflow divided into foreigners and Polish citizens) are estimated with econometric tools and the uncertainty of the obtained estimates is taken into account (in a formal manner). The results obtained indicate consistency of the applied econometric models of migration flows with theories of migration. Immigration to Poland is expected to intensify during the next four decades. Depopulation as well as ageing are expected nevertheless, although the pace of these two phenomena will be slower than predicted in other demographic analyses.
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