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EN
This paper presents results of an empirical study designed to test effectiveness of immunization strategies for a portfolio of default-free fixed-income bonds, where immunization strategy consists in selecting a portfolio for which the exposure of its terminal value to arbitrary interest rate changes is minimized. Two immunization strategies were tested: M(2) minimization strategy - based on the second order duration, and M(A) minimization strategy - based on the absolute value duration. Immunization strategies were applied to RP Treasury fixed-coupon bonds traded on the MTS Poland Market. Upon deriving the empirical term structure of interest rates, three types of portfolio have been constructed for 25 different investment horizons: one for each immunization strategy, while portfolios of the third type were composed of two bonds selected quasi-randomly. Next, relative changes in the terminal value of all portfolios have been calculated on three dates: one day after, one week after, and four weeks after portfolios were constructed. The two immunization strategies have performed equally well in terms of the relative decrease in the end-of-horizon value of portfolio, and much better than the quasi-random portfolios. Results, therefore, do not support claims of superiority of the M(A) strategy over the M(2) strategy, reported by some researchers. .
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Wahania koniunkturalne w Polsce

51%
PL
W opracowaniu omówiono przebieg wahań cyklicznych – w okresie ostatnich kilkunastu lat – wskaźników koniunktury w tych sektorach gospodarki polskiej, które objęte są badaniami koniunktury Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH i Instytutu Transportu Samochodowego, tj. w przemyśle przetwórczym, budownictwie, transporcie, handlu, bankowości, rolnictwie i gospodarstwach domowych, a także barometru koniunktury (wskaźnika złożonego). Dla odniesienia analizą objęto również cykl wartości dodanej brutto. W analizie wahań koniunkturalnych szczególną uwagę zwrócono na okres ostatniego światowego kryzysu finansowego i gospodarczego. W jego wyniku w sferze realnej gospodarki polskiej nastąpiło głębokie załamanie koniunktury, głębsze niż w poprzednich cyklach. Kryzys był dotkliwy, lecz krótkotrwały. We wszystkich branżach nastąpiło względnie szybkie odwrócenie tendencji spadkowych. Analiza potwierdziła wyprzedzający charakter wskaźników jakościowych, a jednocześnie większą intensywność ich wahań niż zmiennej ilościowej.
EN
The paper discusses cyclical fluctuations of BTS and CS indicators of economic activity in Poland in recent years. The set of indicators covers: manufacturing, construction, transport, retail trade, banking, agriculture and households, both separately and all together (composite indicator). The cycle of gross value added (GVA) is also analysed for reference purpose only. The analysis is focused on the effects of the recent global financial and economic crisis. The main finding is that the crisis was conducive to collapse of the real economy, much more profound than during previous downturns. The collapse was extensive but short-lasting, with all the industries turning into an expansion quite fast. The analysis also confirmed the leading characteristics of the BTS and CS indicators and their intensity be higher than that of GVA.
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