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Przewidywanie tendencji rozwojowych w gospodarce na podstawie badań koniunktury w budownictwie

100%
Adamowicz E., Podgórska M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1995
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vol. 46
107-119
EN
The study begins with a brief introductory chapter in which a questionnaire method of business situation surveying in construction was introduced. Then, a structure of a questionnaire sampling of enterprises drawn by lot from a - 200 thousand population was treated. The sample structure and returnability of questionnaires guarantee a faithful representation of the surveys findings. The main part of the study presents both a current business situation in construction and its changes, observed in the course of studies (since the end of 1993) and even earlier (since 1990). An analysis made, is based on a general business indicator's development and on a detection of causes which differentiated business indicators, according to regions, ownership fonns, size of constructing companies and dates of their establishment, inside sectors and according to branches. Next, construction was characterized against the background of the whole economy. This characteristic contains a description of events, particularly those which have been seen recently, like decline in a generał !evel of employment, better use of existing productive capacities, improvement in the field of investments and improvement in the financial standing of the construction companies. In this part the ranking of barriers for economic activity in construction was presented (economic barriers prevail). According to the surveyed companies, construction is assessed pessimistically, against the background of the whole economy. Likewise the general economic situation is seen. Regardless of the clear sings of improvement in the situation in construction, the pessimistic picture, outlined by the enterprises, is influenced by coming phenomena of słowing-down of growth tendencies in the national economy, which in construction are reflected by not very optimistic prognoses concerning investments, domestic and foreign orders and in the field of use of the existing productive capacities.
2
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Modele Markowa w analizie wyników testu koniunktury

100%
Podgórska M., Decewicz A.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2001
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vol. 70
119-156
3
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Sytuacja w budownictwie z perspektywy firm budowlanych

100%
Podgórska M., Decewicz A.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2002
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vol. 72
73-86
EN
This paper presents the results of econometric analysis of business activity of the construction industry in Poland in the period 1996-2001. Time series used to estimate the models were taken from the database of the business survey, both for private and public construction firms. Linear regression models describe the factors and tendencies of declining business activity of the construction firms. Switching Markov Models with a discrete regime variable shows the worsening of the construction firms’ evaluation of both recent and expected situation in the construction industry and of the generał economic situation.
4
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Modele Markowa w analizie koniunktury

81%
Decewicz A., Dędys M., Podgórska M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2008
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vol. 80
351-362
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