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1

The Challenge of Eurozone Reforms in a Time of Uncertain Economic Prospects

100%
Tokarski P.
The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs
|
2014
|
issue 3
7-18
EN
The autumn 2014 brings widespread fear that the crisis in the eurozone may reescalate. A truism is to say that its main drawbacks have not been solved. The problems with the banking sector in the EU are far from solved and the need to clean up bank balance sheets. The necessary process of private sector deleveraging will continue to have an adverse effect on economic activity. The public finances of several eurozone economies are in poor condition. In three out of four of the largest eurozone economies, the general government gross debt-to-GDP ratio is increasing. Several Member States still face considerable structural challenges and the sustainability of economic models will have to be reconsidered, not only in countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Italy or France but also in Finland. After Standard & Poor’s stripped Finland of its triple “A” rating in October 2014, the only members of this exclusive club in the eurozone remained Germany and Luxembourg.
2

Fiasko programu reform gospodarczych francuskiej lewicy

100%
Tokarski P.
Sprawy Międzynarodowe
|
2014
|
issue 3
73-87
EN
Several eurozone members still suffer from serious structural problems, the roots of which go back much further than the creation of the common currency or even the European Union itself. Although the challenges in France are much less significant than in Greece, Italy or Spain, halfway through the term of office of President François Hollande it is worth taking a moment to make an overall assessment of the process of economic reform in the country and the difficulties with it that lie ahead. This is important because in 2017 the country will hold parliamentary and presidential elections that will likely change the balance of power in Paris. The French political scene, both left and right, is in serious crisis, leaving fertile ground for the growth of the radical National Front party. That does not bode well for the possibility of reforms after 2017 and may contribute to the overall risk of undermining the future of the Economic and Monetary Union.
3

Poland’s Winding Road to the Eurozone: From a Cost-Benefit Stance to Risk Aversion

63%
Tokarski P., Visvizi A.
The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs
|
2015
|
issue 3
65-83
EN
More than a decade after EU accession, Poland, an initial enthusiast of euro adoption, has turned into merely an assertive endorser thereof, with the prospect of Polish entry to the eurozone vanishing over an uncertain political horizon for the foreseeable future. Although legally bound to adopt the euro, Poland has drawn on the indeterminacies built in to the Maastricht convergence criteria to effectively postpone eurozone entry. While the euro adoption initially constituted a predominantly legal challenge, today it is an essentially a political issue. Moreover, as a result of the eurozone crisis, the debate on euro adoption switched from a sober cost-benefit analysis to a political risk (and cost) assessment, where the attainment of nominal and legal convergence has become a function of the Polish government’s broader domestic and European political strategy. The outcome of the presidential election in May 2015, described by commentators in terms of an epochal change, further blurs the prospect of Poland’s euro area membership.
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