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  1. 3 Slawinski A.

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1

The Importance of Risk Factors Related to Poland's Joining the ERM2 and the Euro Zone

100%
Slawinski A.
Ekonomista
|
2008
|
issue 1
33-49
EN
Two issues related to Poland's entry into ERM2 are analyzed in the first pat of the article: 1) the factors behind zloty moderation after Poland joined the EU, and 2) how the Central Bank of Poland should conduct its monetary policy to stabilize the zloty within the ERM2 band. In the second part the main risks related to Poland's entry into euro zone are analyzed. The main risk is seen in the potentially procyclical influence of ECB monetary policy on Polish economy. A question is posed how to secure the high rate of productivity growth which would shield Poland's economy against the risk of loosing competitive edge and entering a period of protracted slow growth. Poland, thanks to the process of real convergence, enjoys a relatively high rate of productivity increase. It is necessary, however, to implement structural reforms in order to secure productivity growth in longer perspective. The final part of the article emphasizes that the main sources of Finnish and Swedish economic successes were the structural reforms. A proposal to establish Fiscal Policy Council in Poland concludes the article.
2

The Risk of Loosing Control over Real Interest Rates under the Currency Zone

100%
Slawinski A.
Ekonomista
|
2007
|
issue 2
147-159
EN
The article analyses how the functioning of the currency board system affects the prospects of joining the euro zone by the Baltic countries. Not long ago, it was expected that for the Baltic states the currency board system would be a convenient shortcut to the euro zone. Two years ago, such a scenario was perceived as almost certain. At present accession of the Baltic states to the euro zone seems very remote and uncertain. The main reason for this dramatic change was the materialisation of risks, which are inherent to the currency board system. Above all, the system is pro-cyclical. The illustration is the worrisome feedback, between the credit boom and the decrease in real interest rates. The latter were pushed by the inflation into the negative level. The recent problem of the Baltic countries is not when to join the euro zone but how to avoid a financial crisis, which might be triggered by the credit boom and rapidly growing foreign indebtedness.
3

ZLOTY IN THE EUROPEAN EXCHANGE MECHANISM

100%
Slawinski A.
Ekonomista
|
2004
|
issue 2
173-186
EN
The article analyses the potential risks related to the stability test, which zloty will undergo after entering the ERM II. The cost of abandoning the floating exchange rate will, in the case of Poland, be relatively low. Nonetheless, the ERM II stability test will bring in the risks, which were avoided under the floating exchange regime. The reintroduction of the fluctuation band may create a target for potential speculative attack. The experiences of former accession countries, however, indicate that markets do not launch a speculative attack once they trust that a country in question is able to maintain its external and interal equilibrium. The experiences of the former accession countries also reveal that the important issue is to enter the euro zone with the market exchange rate, which is close to a long-term equilibrium rate Professor Andrzej
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