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  1. 2 Myśl Ekonomiczna i Prawna

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  1. 1 2008

  2. 1 2005

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  1. 2 Guzek M.

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1

ON DECOMPOSITION AND VARIABILITY LIMITS OF THE FOREIGN TRADE MULTIPLIER

100%
Guzek M.
Myśl Ekonomiczna i Prawna
|
2008
|
issue 2(21)
102-137
EN
A critical approach to the well-known in macroeconomics and international economics model of the foreign trade multiplier is leading the author to the proposal of replacing the old formula with a different construction. As the main imperfection of the existing foreign trade multiplier is lack of decomposition that can cause faulty results of quantitative analysis, the proposed model has been based on a modified formula. It has a shape of a weighted average foreign trade multiplier of the examined country, reflecting its marginal propensity to import from all partners. The weights are proportions of the individual trade partners in a total export increase of the examined country. Although the very idea of the Keynesian investment multiplier has been followed, the author is introducing two limits of the foreign trade multiplier; the bottom limit is 1 while the top limit has a form of a variable absorbing screen, adjusted to an achievable in reality GDP increase in the examined country.
2

TRENDS ON THE GLOBAL FUEL MARKET

100%
Guzek M.
Myśl Ekonomiczna i Prawna
|
2005
|
issue 4(11)
88-108
EN
The author distinguishes three stages in development of global economy according to the criterion of access of the high developed countries to energy resources. He claims that in the first stage the impact of this factor on the development of global economy was very favourable as the countries' industrialization was based on their own rich resources. The second stage witnessed a considerable dependence of high developed countries on foreign resources which did not cause any difficulties in the development of motorization and energy sectors. The third stage, however, which was initiated by the energy crisis of the 70s of the 20th century, a significant increase in dependence of USA, EU and Japan on the imports of oil and gas was accompanied by a more difficult access to these resources. The future prospects look even worse. This is due to the unprecedented in the history of global economy the alternative market for oil and gas producers in China, India and other developing countries. The developed countries' own resources of oil and gas run low and their new sources are far from being rich. The author concludes by presenting two major ways of counteracting energy threats: the introduction of new international trade policy towards oil producers, especially the Arabic countries and acceleration in the search of alternative sources of energy.
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