Demographic changes are one of the factors determining labour market changes. This article presents the results of the analysis of the influence of demographic processes on the Town of Zamość and Zamość County labour market changes. As regards labour market changes, the predicted decrease in the number of people who are the most active professionally, that is those aged 20-59, is very important. In the year 2020, the analysed group of people will comprise 10 470 persons less (10.4% less) than in 2010. The decrease in the number of people aged 20-59 will be close to the number of unemployed persons now registered. Thus, the predicted demographic changes will cause a significant reduction of the pressure on the labour market. The number of graduates and young people looking for their first job should fall. Even though now it may seem improbable, if the overall economic situation improves in the following years, especially by the end of this decade, it may be difficult to find workers.
A NEET or neet is a young person who is Not in Education, Employment, or Training. According to OECD NEETs are between 15-24 years. According to European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions NEETs are between 15-29 years. The fraction of NEETs in population of 15-24 (or 15-29) is a measure of disengagement from the labour market and perhaps from society in general. The acronym NEET was first used in the United Kingdom but its use has spread to other countries including Japan, China, and South Korea. NEETs in Polish language sounds like nothing. In the paper the basic problems and statistics of NEETs are presented.
PL
NEET lub neet to młoda osoba, która nie uczy się, nie jest zatrudniona i nie szkoli się (z j. ang. Not in Education, Employment or Training). Według Organizacji Współpracy Gospodarczej i Rozwoju (OECD) NEETsy mają od 15 do 2Ą lat. Według Europejskiej Fundacji na rzecz Poprawy Warunków Życia i Pracy NEETsy mają od 15 do 29 lat. Liczba NEETsów w populacji 15-24-latków (lub 15-29-latków) jest wskaźnikiem wycofania z rynku pracy, a być może ze społeczeństwa. Akronim NEET był po raz pierwszy użyty w Wielkiej Brytanii, ale jego wykorzystanie rozpowszechniło się w innych krajach, takich jak Japonia, Chiny i Korea Południowa. W języku polskim NEETs brzmi jak „nic”, co w sposób przypadkowy, ale trafny odzwierciedla sytaucję tej grupy młodzieży. W artykule przedstawione są główne problemy NEETsów i statystyki opisujące to zjawisko w państwach OECD i Unii Europejskiej.
More and more companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, as well as developed on capital markets, pay dividends, which amounts to a small extent depend on the profit for the last financial year. To this end, the companies form dividend reserve funds (DRF), which allow them to freer dividend policy. Special attention deserves strategy applied in recent years by the Żywiec Group S.A., which each year a portion of the net profit spends on DRF and at the same time, the dividend is paid with the rest of the net profit for the last financial year and the DRF which was created in the previous year. In the article detailed analysis of this strategy was carried out by showing its impact on independent payments from profit for the last year and by introducing the concept of profit for distribution, which realigns the dividend payout ratio. The hypothesis were verified using Lintner’s partial adjustment models.
PL
Coraz więcej spółek notowanych na GPW, podobnie jak na rozwiniętych rynkach kapitałowych, wypłaca dywidendy, których kwoty w niewielkim stopniu zależą od zysku za poprzedni rok obrotowy. W tym celu spółki tworzą dywidendowe fundusze rezerwowe (DRF), które umożliwiają im swobodniejszą politykę dywidendową. Na szczególną uwagę zasługuje strategia stosowana w ostatnich latach przez Grupę Żywiec S.A., która w każdym roku część zysku netto przeznacza na DRF, a jednocześnie dywidendę wypłaca z pozostałej części zysku netto za ostatni rok obrotowy oraz z DRF utworzonego w poprzednim roku. W artykule dokonano szczegółowej analizy tej strategii, pokazując jej wpływ na uniezależnienie wypłat od zysku za ostatni rok i wprowadzając pojęcie zysku do podziału, który urealnia stopę wypłaty dywidendy. Postawione hipotezy zweryfikowano za pomocą modeli Lintnera.
In the paper there were presented the results of the estimation on the basis of a balanced panel of 9 banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 1999–2014 probit panel models with random effects which showed that issued from 2009 by Polish Financial Supervision Authority recommendations have a significant impact on reducing the banks’ propensity to pay dividends.
PL
W pracy, korzystając z oszacowanych na podstawie zbilansowanego panelu dziewięciu banków notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie w latach 1999–2014 probitowych modeli panelowych z losowymi efektami, pokazano, że wydawane od 2009 r. przez Komisję Nadzoru Finansowego zalecenia miały istotny wpływ na ograniczenie skłonności banków do wypłat dywidend.
Since the beginning of the 21st century there has been a significant increase in the value of the dividend payments in the world. In 2012, their value exceeded $ 1 trillion and in 2014 it has already been $ 1,167 trillion. In the article, after a short presentation of the payment policy changes on the developed capital markets in the 20th century, details changes in the value of dividends in the world in the years 2009–2014 were presented. The analysis is also carried in terms of the major regions and markets around the world.
PL
Od początku XXI w. obserwuje się znaczący wzrost wartości wypłacanych dywidend na świecie. W 2012 r. ich wartość przekroczyła 1 bln dolarów, w 2014 r. było to już 1,167 bln dolarów. W artykule, po krótkim przedstawieniu zmian polityki wypłat na rozwiniętych rynkach kapitałowych w XX w., szczegółowo omówiono zmiany wartości wypłat dywidend na świecie w latach 2009–2014. Analizę przeprowadzono również w ujęciu głównych regionów i rynków na świecie.
In the paper the results of estimation of Lintner’s partial adjustments of dividends model for companies noted on Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 1992–2012 were presented. The estimated target payout ratio is 80,38%, but the speed of adjustment is comparatively low (0,6519), so it would take significant period of time do reach so high payout ratio.
The purpose of this article is to show on the example of Warsaw Stock Exchange, Poland (WSE) how in emerging capital markets dividends provide information about earnings quality as measured by their persistence. In the paper the regressions models of future earnings (in years t + 1 and t + 2) were applied on current earnings (in year t), current dividends decision (in year t) and the interaction of current dividend decision and earnings proposed by D. J. Skinner and E. Soltes (2011), using pooled cross – sectional time – series data. A set of 2263 observations coming from the companies listed on the WSE in 1995-2009 was used for the calculation. For estimating the parameters, recursive modeling was used. Specific models were estimated using the heteroskedasticity-corrected general least squares method. It was shown that on the WSE the quality of earnings depends more distinctly on a firm’s dividend policy than on the developed markets.
The purpose of this article is to show on the example of Warsaw Stock Exchange, Poland (WSE) how in emerging capital markets dividends provide information about earnings quality as measured by their persistence. In the paper the regressions models of future earnings (in years t + 1 and t + 2) were applied on current earnings (in year t), current dividends decision (in year t) and the interaction of current dividend decision and earnings proposed by D. J. Skinner and E. Soltes (2011), using pooled cross – sectional time – series data. A set of 2263 observations coming from the companies listed on the WSE in 1995-2009 was used for the calculation. For estimating the parameters, recursive modeling was used. Specific models were estimated using the heteroskedasticity-corrected general least squares method. It was shown that on the WSE the quality of earnings depends more distinctly on a firm’s dividend policy than on the developed markets.
Share repurchase happens when a company repurchases its own shares for any purpose determined by the general meeting of shareholders, including their further sale. Share repurchase is like dividend payout a form of transferring profit to shareholders. However, contrary to dividends, it is quite a new legal institution, which gained importance in developed capital markets as late as in the last twenty years of the 20th century. This article presents the development of the institution of share repurchasing and changing relations between purchasing shares and paying out dividends in developed capital markets. It also presents the legal situation concerning share repurchase in Poland, pointing out that only the regulations introduced in 2008 adjusted Polish legal solutions to those valid in developed capital markets.
The article shows that business sentiment measured with general economic and sector barometers in Lublin province in 2004 was influenced by Poland’s accession to the European Union. In the second quarter of 2004, mood in the corporate sector was much better than suggested by forecasts taking into account long-term trends. A similar trend, though less intense, was noted in the third quarter. However, that optimism was short-lived. In the fourth quarter, business sentiment barometers were lower than predicted. This trend should be taken into account when analyzing business sentiment in the future.
The paper examines business cycles in Poland’s Lublin province using quarterly business sentiment indicators calculated since the second quarter of 2001. Both composite and sector indicators are calculated on the basis of the results of quarterly surveys covering 320 companies and 350 households. Sector indicators are calculated as weighted arithmetic means of respondents’ assessment of their current condition and forecasts for the next quarter. Composite indicators are weighted averages of sector indicators, with the shares of individual sectors in gross value added generated in the province used as weights. Industry and construction in Lublin province began to slow down in the second quarter of 2007, according to Kowerski. By now the slowdown in these sectors has become evident. The slump in the service sector began in the first quarter of 2008, and consumers felt the downturn in the second quarter of 2008. The retail sector has yet to experience a downturn, according to Kowerski. The composite indicator of business sentiment began to deteriorate markedly in the second quarter of 2008. The research shows that the economy of the Lublin region began to slow down in the first half of 2008, though it is unclear if this trend can be called a recession, the author says.
GDP per capita is one of the basic criteria for granting European funding to particular regions. However, in Poland the Central Statistical Office calculates the GDP value in regions with a two-year delay. Therefore, it is important to create tools which, with greater accuracy, would make it possible to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions much earlier than the publications of the Central Statistical Office. In the article, in order to estimate the growth rate of GDP in regions, the autoregressive model is put forward, in which the voivodship entrepreneur’s economic sentiment index is used as one independent variable. The sentiment index is calculated on the basis of a survey, and its value is already known a month after the end of the year, which makes it possible to bring forward the estimation of the growth rate of GDP. Using the proposed model, the growth rate of GDP in the Lubelskie Voivodship in the years 2011–2012 was estimated.
W pracy przeanalizowano zmiany i stosując filtr Hodricka-Prescotta wyznaczono trendy stóp bezrobocia w państwach Unii Europejskiej w latach 2000–2013 zwracając uwagę na duży, chociaż zróżnicowany w zależności od państwa wzrost poziomu i stóp bezrobocia w ostatnich 5 latach. Wzrost ten był znacznie wyższy wśród młodzieży niż wśród osób starszych, przy czym wśród młodych ludzi bezrobocie dotyka najbardziej osoby z niskim poziomem wykształcenia. Szczegółowo przeanalizowano i porównano zmiany sytuacji młodych ludzi na rynku pracy Polski na tle Austrii — państwa o najniższej stopie bezrobocia i Grecji — państwa o najwyższej stopie bezrobocia w UE.
EN
In this paper the Hodrick-Prescott filter method is used to calculate trends of the unemployment rates in the years 2000–2013 in European Union countries. In the last 5 years the high increase of the level and the unemployment rates was observed in most EU countries. This increase was higher among youth than older people. An especially high increase is observed among young people with a low level of education. The changes in unemployment among young people in Poland are compared to Austria — the country with the lowest rate of unemployment and Greece — the country with the highest rate of unemployment were analyzed in detail.
Demographic processes are one of the fundamental factors determining the number of students. This article presents the analysis of the demographic processes’ influence on the current and future number of students in the Lubelskie Voivodship — a region of the NUTS 2 level, located in eastern Poland, bordering on Byelorussia and Ukraine. We used the auto-regression model to produce the forecast which indicates that through the year 2035 we will be experiencing drastic, permanent decline in the numbers of Polish students in the Lubelskie Voivodship, caused by the predicted significant decrease in the number of high school pupils.
Despite Europe’s global importance, very little published research has examined payout policy on this continent. The rather scarce research which has been conducted in this field throughout European companies cover different countries, groups of companies and timeframes, which makes it very difficult to perform comparisons and formulate proper conclusions. The aim of this work is to analyze the payout policy of European companies with comparison to companies outside the European market. Research on the literature has been performed as well as own analyses. The most important tendencies of the European companies’ payout policy have been formulated. Companies in Europe have higher propensity to pay dividends than their counterparts outside Europe and increasing, yet still variable, payout values, both dividends and share repurchases. European companies transfer a substantially bigger part of their net profit to their shareholders than their counterparts from the other continents. An increment in the dividend payout ratio in Europe is clearly visible over the last couple of years. High dividend yields of European companies compensate low yields of governments and corporate bonds.
PL
Pomimo wielkiego znaczenia Europy w globalnej gospodarce, stosunkowo niewiele jest publikacji na temat polityki wypłat spółek europejskich. Prowadzone, stosunkowo nieliczne badania polityki wypłat przez spółki europejskie dotyczą różnych państw, grup spółek i okresów, co powoduje duże trudności w porównaniach i formułowaniu właściwych wniosków. Celem pracy jest analiza polityki wypłat spółek europejskich na tle spółek z rynków pozaeuropejskich. Przeprowadzono badania literaturowe oraz własne analizy i wyodrębniono najważniejsze tendencje polityki wypłat spółek europejskich. Spółki europejskie charakteryzują się wyższą niż pozaeuropejskie skłonnością do płacenia dywidend i rosnącą, chociaż zmienną, wartością wypłat, zarówno dywidend jak i nabywania własnych akcji. Spółki europejskie przeznaczają znacznie większą część zysków netto dla akcjonariuszy niż spółki z innych kontynentów przy czym w ostatnich latach obserwuje się tendencję wzrostu stóp wypłat dywidend w Europie. Wysokie stopy dywidend europejskich spółek kompensują niskie oprocentowanie obligacji skarbu państwa i korporacyjnych.
Zaproponowany przez Lintnera (1956) model częściowych dopasowań pozwala zidentyfikować długoterminową politykę dywidendową spółki poprzez określenie docelowej stopy wypłaty dywidendy i szybkości dopasowania się do niej wypłat. I chociaż w ciągu ponad 60 lat model przeszedł różne modyfikacje i zmieniały się metody jego estymacji, to jest on nadal dobrym narzędziem analizy decyzji dywidendowych podejmowanych przez spółki. Celem artykułu jest pokazanie przydatności modelu Lintnera do analizy zmian polityki dywidendowej spółki w okresie zawirowań związanych z pandemią koronawirusa. Do ilustracji wybrano spółkę Hydrotor SA, która najdłużej na GPW w Warszawie nieprzerwanie wypłaca dywidendę. Przeprowadzone obliczenia pokazały, że sytuacja, która nastąpiła w 2020 roku, spowodowała zrewidowanie długoterminowej strategii dywidendowej spółki, której konsekwencją było obniżenie docelowej stopy wypłaty dywidendy i większe uzależnienie wypłat od bieżącej sytuacji (bieżących zysków netto) – wzrost szybkości dopasowania.
EN
Lintner’s (1956) partial adjustment model identifies the company’s long-term dividend policy by setting a dividend target payout ratio and the speed of adjustment. And although the model has undergone various modifications and methods of estimation over more than 60 years, it is still a good tool for analyzing dividend decisions made by companies. The aim of the article is to show the usefulness of the Lintner model for analyzing changes in the company’s dividend policy during the pandemic turmoil. For the illustration, Hydrotor SA was chosen, which, the longest time at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, continuously pays dividends. The calculations showed that the situation in 2020 resulted in a revision of the company’s long-term dividend strategy, which resulted in a lowering of the dividend target payout ratio and a greater attention to the current situation (current net profits)-an increase in the speed of adjustment.
Any verification of financial hypotheses (theories) requires appropriate data. Such a requirement is met by panel data, which make it possible to use observations of many companies in many periods. The paper discusses the properties of the unbalanced panel of 112 domestic companies (excluding banks) which was constructed by the authors. At the end of 2019 these companies had been listed for at least 3 years, i. e. they had entered the WSE no later than December 31, 2016. The companies in the panel were described using 76,000 numerical values. This does not exhaust the possibilities offered by the panel because, using the variables in the panel, one can create, depending on one’s research needs, subsequent variables.
PL
Weryfikacja hipotez (teorii) finansowych wymaga odpowiednich danych. Taki wymóg spełniają dane panelowe, które umożliwiają wykorzystanie obserwacji z wielu podmiotów w wielu okresach. W pracy omówiono własności skonstruowanego przez autorów panelu niezbilansowanego 112 spółek krajowych, z wyłączeniem banków, które w końcu 2019 roku były notowane przynajmniej przez 3 lata a więc weszły na GPW nie później niż 31 grudnia 2016 roku. Spółki w skonstruowanym panelu zostały opisane za pomocą 76 tys. wartości liczbowych. Należy podkreślić, że to nie wyczerpuje możliwości jakie daje panel, gdyż mając zapisane w panelu zmienne można tworzyć, w zależności od potrzeb badawczych, kolejne zmienne.
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