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From Data to Scenarios: On the “Imaginative Coefficient” of Futurology

100%

Campa R.

ER(R)GO: Teoria – Literatura – Kultura

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2023

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issue 47

127-142

PL

Futurologię zdają się charakteryzować dwa główne paradygmaty: historyczno-literacki, który podkreśla znaczenie wyobraźni i talentu artystycznego, oraz techniczno-naukowy, który sprzyja rygorystycznej analizie danych i precyzji prognoz. Artykuł ten pokrótce przedstawia ewolucję tych dwóch paradygmatów i pokazuje, w jaki sposób znalazły one syntezę we współczesnych „analizach scenariuszy”, których inicjatorem jest Herman Kahn. Co więcej, pokazuje, że ten trzeci sposób analizy może zyskać większą świadomość teoretyczną dzięki koncepcji „współczynnika wyobraźni”. Autor rozwija tę koncepcję, biorąc pod uwagę analityczne rozróżnienie historii i poezji wprowadzone w Poetyce Arystotelesa, rolę wyobraźni w nauce podkreślaną przez filozofa Karla Poppera i chemika Jacobusa Henricusa van't Hoffa oraz dwie dobrze znane zasady metodologiczne socjologii , a mianowicie „współczynnik humanistyczny” opracowany przez polskiego socjologa Floriana Znanieckiego i „wyobraźnię socjologiczną” teoretyzowaną przez Charlesa Wrighta Millsa.

EN

This article reconstructs the historical circumstances that led to the emergence of futurology, as a distinct field of research, and of Herman Kahn’s scenario analysis, as an investigative tool alternative to trend analysis. Two main paradigms characterized prospective thinking up to the mid-20th century, a historico-literary one that emphasized the importance of imagination and artistic talent, and a technical-scientific one that favored the rigorous analysis of data and precision of forecasts. After the Second World War, these two paradigms found a virtuous synthesis in scenario analysis, a halfway approach between literary arts and science. The author argues that the use of imagination and creativity does not undermine the scientific status of futurology, just as it does not put in jeopardy that of other sciences. He also introduces the term imaginative coefficient to indicate a fundamental ingredient of prospective thinking and provides the theoretical basis of this concept.

2

Un ruolo anomalo. La figura del flâneur nella letteratura sociologica

100%

Campa R.

Romanica Cracoviensia

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2015

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vol. 15

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issue 3

PL

The figure of the flâneur is attracting growing interest among sociologists. The question that has stimulated this research is the following: which is the “role” of the flâneur in the social system? After having briefly expounded the Theory of Roles, we examine some sociological works which seem particularly useful to formulate a response. Our analysis is primarily focused on the works of Walter Benjamin, Anthony Giddens, Zygmunt Bauman, and Giampaolo Nuvolati, taken as paradigmatic cases of four possible perspectives.

3

La poetica del Futurismo. Oltre i confini dell’arte

100%

Campa R.

Romanica Cracoviensia

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2015

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vol. 15

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issue 4

PL

The article is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between the program and the actual achievements of Italian Futurism. The Futurists introduce in literature the themes of the new urban, industrial, dynamic, technological, and tumultuous civilization, through a poetic which, without inhibitions, breaks linguistic, pictorial, rhetorical, and metric rules. The “words-in-freedom” program leads to the “liberation” of various forms of energy and vitality, and opens the way for a revolution in the perception of reality. The principle of mimesis gives way to free creation, which breaks down the boundaries between the fine arts and engineering, between artistic disciplines and life experience. The futurists seek not only the natural sublime as their predecessors, but also produce and glorify the artificial sublime, made through science and technology

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2 Romanica Cracoviensia

1 ER(R)GO: Teoria – Literatura – Kultura

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1 2023

2 2015

From Data to Scenarios: On the “Imaginative Coefficient” of Futurology

Un ruolo anomalo. La figura del flâneur nella letteratura sociologica

La poetica del Futurismo. Oltre i confini dell’arte