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  1. 2 Operations Research and Decisions

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  1. 1 2022

  2. 1 2017

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  1. 2 CHYBALSKI F.

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Forecast value added (FVA) analysis as a means to improve the efficiency of a forecasting process

100%
CHYBALSKI F.
Operations Research and Decisions
|
2017
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vol. 27
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issue 1
5-19
EN
A praxeological approach has been proposed in order to improve a forecasting process through the employment of the forecast value added (FVA) analysis. This may be interpreted as a manifestation of lean management in forecasting. The author discusses the concepts of the effectiveness and efficiency of forecasting. The former, defined in the praxeology as the degree to which goals are achieved, refers to the accuracy of forecasts. The latter reflects the relation between the benefits accruing from the re-sults of forecasting and the costs incurred in this process. Since measuring the benefits accruing from a forecasting is very difficult, a simplification according to which this benefit is a function of the fore-cast accuracy is proposed. This enables evaluating the efficiency of the forecasting process. Since im-proving this process may consist of either reducing forecast error or decreasing costs, FVA analysis, which expresses the concept of lean management, may be applied to reduce the waste accompanying forecasting.
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Occupational composition of an economy and effective retirement age across European countries: an econometric analysis

100%
CHYBALSKI F.
Operations Research and Decisions
|
2022
|
vol. 32
|
issue 3
65-79
EN
In this study, panel regression models for 21 European countries and data covering the period between 2008 and 2014 were used to demonstrate that the distribution of working population across different occupational groups explains cross-country differences in terms of the average effective retirement age. Thus, while the great majority of previous studies verified the causal trade-off investigated on the basis of single-country micro data with reference to one economy, this study takes perspective of cross-country diversity in terms of the investigated relationship. The confirmed link holds even when controlling inter alia for health status, education, unemployment, old-dependency ratio, interest rate, GDP per capita, or the share of salaries and wages in GDP. An important practical implication for the policy-makers is that decisions limited only to the increase in the universal pensionable age cannot be effective, since the occupational composition of an economy is very relevant.
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