Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Results found: 3

first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last

Search results

help Sort By:

help Limit search:
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
1
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Macroeconomic factors in modelling the SMEs bankruptcy risk. The case of the Polish market

100%
Ptak-Chmielewska A., Matuszyk A.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2019
|
issue vol. 23 no. 3
40-49
EN
The last financial crisis affected the SMEs sector in different countries at different levels and strength. SMEs represent the backbone of the economy of every country. Therefore, they need bankruptcy prediction models easily adaptable to their characteristics. In our analysis we verified hypothesis: including information about macroeconomic conditions significantly increases the effectiveness of the bankruptcy model. The data set used in our research contained information about 1,138 SMEs. All information was taken from the financial statements covering the period 2002-2010. The sample included enterprises from sectors: industry, trade and services. Selected financial ratios were used to build the model and the macroeconomic variables were added: GDP, inflation, and the unemployment rate. Logistic regression as the research method was applied. In our study we showed that the incorporation of the macro variables improved the prediction of the SMEs bankruptcy risk.
2
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Analiza możliwości zastosowania metody DEA W modelach scoringowych

100%
Nowak A. K., Matuszyk A.
Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2014
|
vol. 186 cz 1
113-126
EN
A clue for the research have become analysis made by A. Feruś in 2006, In which the author points the possibility of extending classical scoring models with the DEA method, allowing to predict a credit risk. In 2006, in the era of the Basel II implementation, the possibility of such an extension was not reflected in the practice of banks in Poland. But now, as a part of the Basel III implementation, it is reasonable to consider the possibility of their expantion, for example using the DEA . The study was carried out on the basis of 139 companies operating in Poland in 2010-2011 data and a comparison with their actual condition in 2012. Survey results both for 2010 and 2011 indicate a weaker prediction of the scoring models alone than scoring models with DEA In terms of: correct customers classification and the value of a R2 determination factor.
3
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

DEFAULT PREDICTION FOR SME USING DISCRIMINANT AND SURVIVAL MODELS, EVIDENCE FROM POLISH MARKET

100%
Ptak-Chmielewska A., Matuszyk A.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
|
2014
|
vol. 15
|
issue 2
369-381
EN
The aim of this paper was to compare the new technique (survival analysis) used in the credit risk models with the traditional one (discriminant analysis), analyse the strengths and weaknesses of both methods and their usage in practice. This study attempts to use macroeconomic data to build models and examine its impact to the prediction. For this purpose, a number of models was built on the basis of the sample of 1547 enterprises including 494 defaults. The time range covered by sample was 2002-2012.
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.