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1

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR THE EUROPEAN INSURANCE SECTOR

100%
Danieli L., Jakubik P.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2022
|
vol. 70
|
issue 1
3 – 21
EN
This study proposes an Early Warning System model composed of macro-financial and company-specific indicators that could help to anticipate a potential market distress in the European insurance sector. A distress is defined as periods in which insurance companies’ equity prices crash and CDS spreads spike simultaneously. The model is estimated using a sample of 36 insurance companies that are listed. Based on a fixed-effects panel binomial logit specification, empirical evidence shows that economic overheating that could be manifested by high economic growth, inflation and interest rates have negative impact on insurance sector stability. At the company level, a drop in return on assets and price-to-book value or raising operating expenses increases the likelihood of distress occurrence.
2

IMPACT OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS ON EUROPEAN INSURERS: EVIDENCE FROM EQUITY MARKETS

100%
Jakubik P., Zafeiris D.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
|
vol. 66
|
issue 9
925 – 944
EN
The current macro-economic and financial conditions remain extremely challenging for the European insurance sector. Due to the ongoing low-yield environment and competitive pressure from new players, in particular technology-focused start-ups entering the markets, insurers are changing their business models and looking for new investment and business opportunities to improve their profitability and overall solvency positions. This is also reflected in increasing interest in mergers and acquisitions to achieve sufficient returns. However, there is no clear answer in the literature as to whether this strategy brings the anticipated positive results. This study empirically tests the effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on the share prices of European insurers via an event study. Our results do not confirm the positive impact of such strategies on acquirers’ share prices delivering abnormal returns for shareholders.
3

HOW TO ANTICIPATE RECESSION VIA TRANSPORT INDICES

81%
Jakubik P., Kerimkhulle S., Teleuova S.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2017
|
vol. 65
|
issue 10
972 – 990
EN
This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.
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