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1

Modeling the disability-free life expectancy

100%
Gazinska M., Mojsiewicz M.
Studia Demograficzne
|
2004
|
issue 1(145)
75-91
EN
The life expectancy depends greatly on health - morbidity, disability and invalidity. A rise of life expectancy and increased morbidity make problems of the disabled people even more important; in many countries disability becomes more common. This paper presents methods of modeling the life expectancy without disability.The sample survey of disable persons was used to estimate the disability-free life table and to verify Gompertz, Weilbull, exponential and linear-expotential disability hazard functions. None of these functions was accepted to describe the disability hazard for the total surveyed population.The hypothesis that a probability of becoming disabled depends on age, sex, education, type of disability certificate, causes of disability, necessary support and subjective restraints from taking up a job was verified by the use of the semiparametric Cox model of proportional hazards. It was concluded that only age influence significantly the disability hazard. For people in the working age results of the disability-free life tables as well as Gompertz, Weilbull, exponential and linear-exponential disability hazard functions, estimated separately for the considered age groups, provided acceptable results except for the age 45-54. About 10 years before reaching the retirement age the disability hazard rate increased markedly and according to the estimated Cox model depends strongly on restraints in taking up jobs and needed care as well as on sex. Therefore disability hazard functions should be specified by sex.
2

DIAGNOSTIC FUNCTION OF THE NONCLASSIC BREAK-EVEN POINT IN FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ON THE CAPITAL MARKET

100%
Tarczynski W., Gazinska M.
|
2008
|
vol. 55
|
issue 1
97-112
EN
One of the main aspects of the analysis of business enterprises is the break-even point, which belongs to the Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP) analysis. Since revenues, cost and profits are the functions of the level of the enterprise's activity it is possible to apply the analytically determined relations to support the decision-making process. The economic account basing on the break-even point leads to planning the production on the production level that assures that the difference between the sales and the cost of goods sold is higher than zero. In this meaning, the break even-point is a very useful tool that enables the analysis of the profitability of a business. The usage of the break-even point within the basic analysis in the stock exchange analysis might in significant way decrease the investment risk or increase its effectiveness. The analyses of non-classical break-even point were conducted for companies in selected sectors listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2000 and 2005 years.
3

MODELLING OF MORTALITY AMONG PEOPLE OVER 80 YEARS OF AGE

81%
Purzynski J., Gazinska M., Mojsiewicz M.
Studia Demograficzne
|
2005
|
issue 1(147)
30-49
EN
This paper addresses the issue of numeric calculations related to the modelling of the probability of dying within a year among people aged 80 years and over. According to 'The Force of Mortality between the Ages of 80 and 120' (A.R. Thatcher, V. Kannisto, J.W. Vaupel, 1999), the applicability of the following models were analysed: Gompertz, Weibul, Heligman-Pollard, Kannisto, logistic, and Coale-Kisker. After appropriate modification of the formulas, the authors achieved a better goodness of fit for the logistic and the Coale-Kisker models than that reported in the aforementioned publication. A hyperbolic-tangent model was proposed - being an equivalent to the logistic model - and it provides a much better goodness of fit for the empirical data.
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