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Możliwości opisu stanu gospodarki na podstawie testów koniunktury

100%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1998
|
vol. 60
7-30
EN
In chapter 1, business activity tests, conducted by the IRG (Research Institute of Economic Development, Warsaw School of Economics) since 1986, have been described. Variables observed in individual projects have been presented with concentration on questionnaires used to analyze business activity in manufacturing and construction industries. Research tools used by the RIED werę compared with requirements of the European Union and EUROSTAT, and conchision has been reached that RIED business activity tests are consistent with harmonization requirements. As a result, it is possible to use data collected by the means of questionnaires for international comparisons. Business activity tests are a specific form of monitoring the current State of Polish economy. Regular observations of behavior of enterprises, repeated in monthly (industry) or quarterly (construction) cycles, allow to conclude what kond of behavior dominates among businesses. Getting acquainted with responses of enterprises is particularly important in the period of system transformation. It allows to analyze the rate of changes in various fields of economic activity and to adjust macroeconomic policy tools to phenomena taking place in the economy. Data collected as the result of business activity survey’s allow to analyze business activity as a business cycle. In particular, they make it possible to determine, with advance in comparison to data collected by traditional methods, the critical points of a cycle which point to changes in direction of economic activity. Thanks to that property, so-called early warning indicators are designed. Growing demand for information on real economy makes data collected as a result of business activity tests a valuable source of additional information. To use it, however, it is necessary to find research methods and tools which allow to predict trends on the basis of qualitative data. This study describes efforts to find these tools.
2
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Możliwości wykorzystania wyników badania koniunktury w polityce gospodarczej

100%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2001
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vol. 67
125-134
3
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Ankietowe badania koniunktury a polityka makroekonomiczna

100%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
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vol. 64
13-16
EN
Business surveys are an important guidance for the purpose of govemment’s economic policy. They provide us with current information on the condition and prospects of national economy. They also show estimated changes in such economic variables as production, employment, order-books, stocks, prices, costs, etc. Qualitative data from business surveys can significantly reduce uncertainty about the proper course of current economic policies. The information rendered by the RIED’s business surveys, notably by the industrial survey, has proved its accuracy against the actual development of the economy during the last few years. Govemmental bodies responsible for economic policy should pay more attention to the results of business surveys if they wish to avoid faulty decisions.
4
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Badania koniunktury a polityka makroekonomiczna

100%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1999
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vol. 63
71-87
EN
Business survey provides, among the others, the information of changes of such variables as: production, order, employment, stocks and prices. In the business cycle theories these variables are relevant to the dynamics of the economic activity’s level. And so both the production and employment are procyclical and treated as the simultaneous variables, while order and prices are also procyclical and regarded as the attentive ones. Stocks are counter-cyclical, unit cost is procyclical and is treated as a delatory variable. Observatation of the dynamics of these values' changes in connection with the dynamics of the generał business indicator enriches the infomation, used in macroeconomic policy. Fast gaining these information makes possible the decrease of delays and insecurity range in the economy first of all. It is particulary important in case of the economies in transition, like Polish economy.
5
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Dorobek naukowy Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH w latach 1993-2007

100%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2008
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vol. 81
6
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Dostosowanie ankiety badania koniunktury w przemyśle przetwórczym IRG do zaleceń Unii Europejskiej

100%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1998
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vol. 59
55-69
PL
Artykuł poświęcony został problemom harmonizacji testu przemysłowego do zaleceń OECD i wymagań UE. Przedstawiono zharmonizowany kwestionariusz ankiet, do badania koniunktury w przemyśle przetwórczym oraz zmiany jakie nastąpiły w formularzu ankiety IRG zapewniające harmonizację z wymogami UE.
EN
There was no research on economic situation carried out in Central and Eastern European countries during the era of centralized control of economic processes. The research initiated by the Institute in 1986 was an utter precedence of its kind. The work on harmonizing the survey forms used for researching economic situation in countries undergoing system transformation started in 1990 under the guidance of the OECD, the European Union (Eurostat), and CIRET (Center for International Research on Economic Tendency Survey). Anex 1 features a harmonized version (in English) of a survey form according to the recommendations of the OECD and the EU (Eurostat); Anex 2 provides a full version of the Institute's survey form for economic situation research in the processing industry. (J.W.)
7
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Użyteczność badań koniunktury dla polityki makroekonomicznej

88%
Adamowicz E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2001
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vol. 70
11-28
8
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Business Survey Research in the RIED

63%
Adamowicz E., Klimkowska J.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2004
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vol. 74
427-434
9
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ANEX: Koniunktura gospodarcza w Polsce w latach 1995-2014

63%
Adamowicz E., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2016
|
vol. 98: Polityka gospodarcza w warunkach przemian rozwojowych
271-281
10
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Przewidywanie tendencji rozwojowych w gospodarce na podstawie badań koniunktury w budownictwie

63%
Adamowicz E., Podgórska M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1995
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vol. 46
107-119
EN
The study begins with a brief introductory chapter in which a questionnaire method of business situation surveying in construction was introduced. Then, a structure of a questionnaire sampling of enterprises drawn by lot from a - 200 thousand population was treated. The sample structure and returnability of questionnaires guarantee a faithful representation of the surveys findings. The main part of the study presents both a current business situation in construction and its changes, observed in the course of studies (since the end of 1993) and even earlier (since 1990). An analysis made, is based on a general business indicator's development and on a detection of causes which differentiated business indicators, according to regions, ownership fonns, size of constructing companies and dates of their establishment, inside sectors and according to branches. Next, construction was characterized against the background of the whole economy. This characteristic contains a description of events, particularly those which have been seen recently, like decline in a generał !evel of employment, better use of existing productive capacities, improvement in the field of investments and improvement in the financial standing of the construction companies. In this part the ranking of barriers for economic activity in construction was presented (economic barriers prevail). According to the surveyed companies, construction is assessed pessimistically, against the background of the whole economy. Likewise the general economic situation is seen. Regardless of the clear sings of improvement in the situation in construction, the pessimistic picture, outlined by the enterprises, is influenced by coming phenomena of słowing-down of growth tendencies in the national economy, which in construction are reflected by not very optimistic prognoses concerning investments, domestic and foreign orders and in the field of use of the existing productive capacities.
11
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Stylised Facts about Cyclical Fluctuations of Business Survey Data

63%
Adamowicz E., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2013
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vol. 93: Expectations and Forecasting
123-142
EN
The paper discusses cyclical fluctuations of business activity in selected sectors of the Polish economy, with the use of business confidence indicators. We analyse main morphological features of the cyclical fluctuations: phase duration, timing of turning points, amplitudes, intensity and leads/lags of qualitative indicators in reference to GDP, and cross correlations. Four sectors of the economy are analysed: manufacturing, construction, motor transport and retail trade. We make an insight into empirical regularities of cyclical fluctuations, known as stylised facts. We particularly aim to examine the following stylised facts about business cycles in Poland, ie (1) whether manufacturing contributes the highest to a business cycle, (2) construction and transport are leading sectors of the economy, and (3) retail sales stabilise general business activity.
12
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Ograniczenia aktywności przedsiębiorstw

63%
Adamowicz E., Jóźwiak J.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2008
|
vol. 80
157-179
13
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Regional Business Activity in Light of Business Surveys Results

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2008
|
vol. 79
94-117
14
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Global Financial Crisis and Its Effects on Real Economies in the Light of Quantitative and Survey Data

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Pachucki D., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2011
|
vol. 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference
11-37
EN
The paper discusses the effects of global financial and banking crisis of 2007-2008 on US and selected European economies. Due to its widespread incidence it has triggered substantial research challenge. The main area of our interest is the real side of economies. However, taking into account the fact that the crisis was accompanied by substantial breakdown of corporate and consumer confidence, we use quantitative as well as survey data in the research. We study fluctuations of main economic aggregates: output, consumption, industrial production and retail trade. Quantitative variables are matched with BTS and CS counterparts (confidence and sentiment indicators) to find out whether the survey data preceded quantitative one in signalling changes in real economies, whether synchronisation, the depth and the duration of the recession were different for each variable and country, and finally whether survey/quantitative variables were coherent in describing consequences of the crisis. We analyse cyclical fluctuations of selected variables and describe characteristics of the recession in each country in order to compare reactions of selected economies to the crisis.
15
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Wykorzystanie wyników testu koniunktury do prognoz krótko terminowych

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2002
|
vol. 73
7-39
16
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Wahania koniunktury w Polsce i strefie euro

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Pachucki D., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2009
|
vol. 82: Polityka gospodarcza w warunkach integracji z Unią Europejską
7-30 223-233
PL
Przedmiotem opracowania jest analiza porównawcza przebiegu cyklu koniunkturalnego w Polsce i krajach strefy euro w latach 1995 -2008. W analizie wykorzystano dane ilościowe i dane o charakterze jakościowym. Do opisu dynamiki wahań cyklicznych wykorzystano następujące zmienne makroekonomiczne: PKB, indeks produkcji sprzedanej przemysłu (dane ilościowe), wskaźniki koniunktury dla przemysłu przetwórczego i gospodarstw domowych, ogólny wskaźnik nastrojów gospodarczych oraz stopień wykorzystania mocy produkcyjnych (dane jakościowe, pozyskiwane w badaniach koniunktury metodą testu). Po wypreparowaniu czynnika cyklicznego przy użyciu filtra Christiano-Fitzgeralda przeprowadzono analizę zależności wypreparowanych komponentów cyklicznych dla wszystkich zmiennych, objętych badaniem, pomiędzy Polską i poszczególnymi krajami strefy euro oraz strefą euro jako całością. W badanym okresie wyróżniona w gospodarce polskiej 4 krótkie cykle, trwające od 2,5 roku do 4 lat. Stwierdzono, iż wahania cykliczne w Polsce mają charakter wyprzedzający w stosunku do wahań w strefie euro. Odnotowano także znaczne podobieństwo w przebiegu cyklu koniunkturalnego w Polsce i strefie euro. Największą zgodność w przebiegu wahań cyklicznych stwierdzono dla zmiennych o charakterze jakościowym, zwłaszcza dla wskaźnika koniunktury w przemyśle przetwórczym. Przeprowadzona analiza wykazała także, iż zachowania polskich gospodarstw domowych są inne niż w krajach strefy euro.
EN
A comparative analysis of business cycle in Poland and in the Euro-zone countries within 1995-2008 is the objective of the paper. The analysis makes use of both quantitative and qualitative data. The following macroeconomic variables have been applied to describe the dynamics of cyclical fluctuations: GDP, indexes of business situation in manufacturing industry and households, general indicator of economic sentiment and the degree of utilizing production capacity (qualitative data obtained in business situation research through test method). After retrieving a cyclical factor with the use of the Christiano-Fitzgerald filter, an analysis of dependence of the retrieved cyclical components – for all the variables covered by the research – between Poland and individual countries of the Euro-zone and the Euro-zone as a whole has been carried out. Within the period of the research in Poland’s economy 4 short cycles have been distinguished, lasting from 2.5 to 4 years each. It has been stated that cyclical fluctuations in Poland are of preceding nature in relation to the Euro-zone fluctuations. Furthermore, a significant similarity in the course of business situation cycle in Poland and the Euro-zone has been observed as well. The largest unanimity in the course of cyclical fluctuations has been recorded in case of qualitative variables, notably regarding business situation indicator in manufacturing industry. The analysis conducted has also provided that the behaviour of Polish households is different than in the countries of the Euro-zone.
17
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The Usefulness of Business Surveys Data for Short-Term Forecasting Raw data vs seasonally adjusted and smoothed one

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2004
|
vol. 75
77-97
18
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Wahania koniunkturalne w Polsce

51%
Adamowicz E., Klimkowska J., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2011
|
vol. 87: Zmiany aktywności gospodarczej w świetle wyników badań koniunktury
9-32
PL
W opracowaniu omówiono przebieg wahań cyklicznych – w okresie ostatnich kilkunastu lat – wskaźników koniunktury w tych sektorach gospodarki polskiej, które objęte są badaniami koniunktury Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH i Instytutu Transportu Samochodowego, tj. w przemyśle przetwórczym, budownictwie, transporcie, handlu, bankowości, rolnictwie i gospodarstwach domowych, a także barometru koniunktury (wskaźnika złożonego). Dla odniesienia analizą objęto również cykl wartości dodanej brutto. W analizie wahań koniunkturalnych szczególną uwagę zwrócono na okres ostatniego światowego kryzysu finansowego i gospodarczego. W jego wyniku w sferze realnej gospodarki polskiej nastąpiło głębokie załamanie koniunktury, głębsze niż w poprzednich cyklach. Kryzys był dotkliwy, lecz krótkotrwały. We wszystkich branżach nastąpiło względnie szybkie odwrócenie tendencji spadkowych. Analiza potwierdziła wyprzedzający charakter wskaźników jakościowych, a jednocześnie większą intensywność ich wahań niż zmiennej ilościowej.
EN
The paper discusses cyclical fluctuations of BTS and CS indicators of economic activity in Poland in recent years. The set of indicators covers: manufacturing, construction, transport, retail trade, banking, agriculture and households, both separately and all together (composite indicator). The cycle of gross value added (GVA) is also analysed for reference purpose only. The analysis is focused on the effects of the recent global financial and economic crisis. The main finding is that the crisis was conducive to collapse of the real economy, much more profound than during previous downturns. The collapse was extensive but short-lasting, with all the industries turning into an expansion quite fast. The analysis also confirmed the leading characteristics of the BTS and CS indicators and their intensity be higher than that of GVA.
19
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Czy można wierzyć badaniom koniunktury?

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2002
|
vol. 72
141-152
EN
Business tendency surveys (BTS) have a long tradition in maturę market economies. The survey results are used to diagnose the economic conditions of a country and to forecast the direction of changes in business activity. One can observe that economic units (ie business firms), financial institutions, municipal organizations and public administration are all interested in the data obtained from these surveys. The paper presents some of the results of the research conducted by the Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED) on the use of business survey data (qualitative data elaborated by RIED) to forecast the industrial production index (quantitative data elaborated by Central Statistics Office). As a qualitative variable we used the balance of opinion about generał economic situation (diagnostic and expectation). Presented are results of three types of analyses: graphic analysis, crosscorrelation analysis and econometric analysis.
20
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The Use of Business Survey Data in Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting

51%
Adamowicz E., Dudek S., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2004
|
vol. 74
357-375
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