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1

GSIM Measurement of the Effects of the EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey on Agricultural Trade

100%
Holzner M.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
|
2008
|
vol. 3
|
issue 1
7-14
EN
In this paper, the global simulation model (GSIM) for the analysis of global, regional, and unilateral trade policy changes by Francois and Hall (2003) was applied to the agricultural trade between the EU, the Balkans and Turkey. This was done in order to measure the effects of an EU accession of the Balkans and Turkey. Most of the changes in welfare after a full liberalisation of agricultural trade between the Balkans and Turkey on the one hand and the EU on the other hand can be expected in the accession countries themselves. It is estimated that incumbent EU members will be affected only to a minor extent. It was also estimated that the exchange rate risk is not very high.
2

Determinants of Kosovo Trade: A Gravity Model Approach

51%
Peci F., Holzner M., Kutllovci E.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
|
2010
|
vol. 5
|
issue 2
33-41
EN
This study attempts to identify and quantify the factors affecting bilateral trade flows between Kosovo and its trading partner countries using a gravity model. The econometric model is estimated based on both economic and institutional aspects. The results show that family networking with Kosovo emigrants determines to a large extent both exports and imports, while corruption and informality in the partner country seem not to be issues with regard to Kosovo imports. This comes as a surprise given the initial assumption that Kosovo trades more with countries that have a high share of corruption because of informal networks between small and medium enterprises (SME) predominant in Kosovo. The regional CEFTA free trade agreement has a positive effect on both Kosovo imports and exports. Key words: international trade, gravity model, informality, Kosovo
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