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Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market

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Augustyniak H., Łaszek J., Waszczuk J.
Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie
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2014
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vol. 31
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issue 2
63-77
EN
Analysing the real estate market, the authors focused on the modelling of short-term housing market, instead of a long-term residential space market. In this perspective, even a slight change in the factors affecting the real estate market, due to the multiplier effect leads to strong shocks on the demand side, and consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the demand and supply price elasticity, may disappear or explode. The article presents the modelling cycles in the real estate market. The analysis takes into account changes in prices and the number of dwellings on the primary and secondary market. As calculations indicate, in order to smooth the housing cycle the demand for housing should be mitigate, what can be achieved using fiscal policy, prudential regulation and housing policy – the authors suggest.
2
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Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw

100%
Augustyniak H., Łaszek J., Olszewski K., Waszczuk J.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
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2013
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issue 35
5-23
EN
This paper presents a simple disequilibrium model in the primary housing market, calibrated to the Warsaw market. Our aim is to point out that the primary housing market, due to the long construction process is always in disequilibrium, which has important policy implications. We discuss the last housing cycle and show how a combination of slight demand shocks with short-term rigid supply leads to strong fluctuations of house prices and new construction. The primary market can create a significant distress to the economy, because when house prices rise, this sector attracts capital and workers and is able to generate excessive supply, which finally can lead to the burst of the price bubble. The cyclical character is a permanent feature of the property market and can be explained by the inelasticity of supply. Market participants form price and demand expectations based on past observations. This causes frequent cycles that, under specific conditions, can lead to economic crises. We believe that the model describes the reality of the primary housing market better than equilibrium models do, so it can be useful for central banks and financial supervision institutions in the analysis of the impact of fiscal and monetary policy and regulations on the real estate market.
3
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Model popytu mieszkaniowego – analiza od strony właścicieli, właścicieli-inwestorów i inwestorów

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Łaszek J., Olszewski K., Augustyniak H.
Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie
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2017
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vol. 43
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issue 2
69-77
EN
An apartment is both a consumption and an investment good. The aim of this article is to present a holistic approach to the assessment of housing demand. The residential demand may be divided into purely proprietary demand combined with a form of allocation of savings, active investing in property that generates income from rents, and speculations, consisting in buying and waiting for increase of prices in the future. These three types of demand affect each other. In their analysis, the authors rely on the basic microeconomic and financial models and those associated with the market of housing properties, that is the consumer model, interim consumption, and the financial investor. On the basis of calculations, a housing demand on the primary hosing market was established for the six largest cities of Poland.
PL
Mieszkanie jest dobrem zarówno konsumpcyjnym jak i inwestycyjnym. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie holistycznego podejścia do oceny popytu mieszkaniowego. Popyt na mieszkania można rozbić na popyt czysto własnościowy połączony z formą lokowania osz-czędności, na aktywne inwestowanie w nieruchomość generujące dochody z czynszów oraz spekulację, polegającą na zakupie i oczekiwaniu na wzrost cen w przyszłości. Te trzy rodzaje popytu wpływają na siebie. W swojej analizie autorzy oparli się na podstawowych modelach mikroekonomicznych i finansowych oraz związanych z rynkiem nieruchomości mieszkanio-wych, czyli na modelu konsumenta, konsumpcji międzyokresowej oraz inwestora finanso-wego. Na podstawie przeprowadzonych obliczeń oszacowany został popyt mieszkaniowy na pierwotnym rynku mieszkaniowym sześciu największych miast Polski.
4
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To Rent or to Buy – Analysis of Housing Tenure Choice Determined by Housing Policy

100%
Augustyniak H., Łaszek J., Olszewski K., Waszczuk J.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
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2013
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issue 33
31-54
EN
The article discusses the relatively large share of owner-occupied housing in the housing stock in selected European countries with relatively low per capita income and describes the underlying causes of this phenomenon. We also identify the economic implications of the growing number of owner-occupied housing and poorly developed rental market. The paper analyses home purchase or rental decisions and explains the correlations between housing availability, consumption and households’ savings, as well as housing policy and investigates this question empirically. The way in which the development of the rental market can improve the situation in the property market is presented on the basis of a simple model.
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