Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Results found: 6

first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last

Search results

help Sort By:

help Limit search:
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
1
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Zmiany na światowych rynkach paliwowo-energetycznych i ich wpływ na polskie obroty nośnikami energii

100%
Skórkowska B., Instytut Ekonomiki i Polityki Handlu Zagranicznego SGPiS
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
1984
|
vol. 35
EN
The article discusses an attempt at estimation of the effects of changes in prices on the world fuels and energy markets on Poland's trade in primary energy carriers. In the first part of this article there are analyzed changes in the world prices of crude oil, natural gas, and hard coal. The analysis encompasses, first of all, changes in the level of the world prices and changes in relations of primary energy carriers. Next the author discussess changes in the Polish foreign trade in energy carriers in the seventies and the projected demand of Poland's economy for energy in the eighties according to a division into particular primary energy carriers: hard coal, crude oil, and natural gas In three variants. The first variant is based on extrapolation of previous development trends; the second variant - on analysis of changes in the Income elasticity of demand, and the third variant - on probable changes in the structure of demand for energy carrier (basing on the expertise elaborated by the Raw Materials Committee in the Polish Academy of Science in 1978). The third part of the article is devoted to an attempt at answering a question, what possibilities there are of obtaining the necessary hydrocarbonic fuels in the world markets for the Polish economy having in view, first of all, possibllites, of financing import of these fuels.
2
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Analiza wymiany handlowej Polski z europejskimi krajami RWPG. Propozycje badawcze

100%
Piotrowski Z., Instytut Ekonomiki i Polityki Handlu Zagranicznego SGPiS
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
1984
|
vol. 35
EN
The report contains a description of the methodology of researches on the relationship between the value of the Polish exports to particular CMEA member-3tates, and the value of the Polish imports from this group of countries (total,from different countries, and groups of countries). The input-output method is used. The research project is under way at present.
3
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Ekonometria a analiza rynków zagranicznych i prognozowanie handlu zagranicznego

100%
Błaszczuk D., Instytut Ekonomiki i Polityki Handlu Zagranicznego SGPiS
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
1984
|
vol. 35
PL
Celem artykułu jest ukazanie wzajemnych związków, jakie występują między trzema naukami podanymi w tytule. Związki te rozpatrywane będą z punktu widzenia cech wspólnych i różnic występujących w zadaniach stawianych przed wspomnianymi naukami, гакгезет badań w ramach tych nauk oraz metod badań w nich stosowanych. Punktem wyjścia rozważań autora są definicje omawianych nauk.
EN
The aim of this paper is to describe correlations between econometrics, foreign markets analysis and foreign trade forecasting. These correlations are analyzed from the angle of common features and differences, which appear in tasks posed before the above mentioned sciences, scope of studies within the framework of these sciences as well as of research methods applied by them. The starting point for the analysis is definition of the sciences in question.
4
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Przykłady prognozowania cen za pomocą wybranych metod ekonometrycznych

100%
Rosati D., Ryszkiewlcz A., Instytut Ekonomiki i Polityki Handlu Zagranicznego SGPiS
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
1984
|
vol. 35
PL
Niniejszy artykuł jest ilustracją (na podstawie konkretnych przykładów liczbowych) niektórych metod prognozowania cen, przedstawionych w artykule D. Rosatiego "Wybrano metody prognozowania cen w handlu zagranicznym". W pierwszej części artykułu przedstawiony jest przykład na zastosowanie modeli szeregów czasowych: w tym modeli autoregresyjnych (AR), modeli średniej ruchomej (MA) oraz modeli mieszanych, stanowiących połączenie dwu poprzednich (AIWA). Część druga artykułu zawiera przykłady na zastosowanie modeli PROBIT i LOBIT w prognozowaniu cen.
EN
Applying concrete numerical examples the authors illustrate selected methods of price forecasting in foreign trade. In the first part of the article there are presented examples of application of time-series models. These include autoregressive models (AR), moving-average models (MA), and mixed models (ARMA), combining elements of autoregressive and moving-average models. The second part of the article contains examples of application of qualitative choice models in price forecasting as well as an example of application of PROBIT and LOBIT models.
5
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Wybrane metody prognozowania cen w handlu zagranicznym

100%
Rosati D., Instytut Ekonomiki i Polityki Handlu Zagranicznego SGPiS
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
1984
|
vol. 35
EN
The article deals with some selected methods of international price forecasting. First, specific features of international price forecasting are formulated and need for a special methodology is emphasised. Next, some econometric modele of time series are discussed, foremost among them pure random walk process, moving - average process, autoregressive process, and finally a combined ARIMA model. Furthemore, selected simple models of binary choice are presented, like linear probabilistic model, LOGIT model, and PROBIT model. Particular usefulness of stochastic »odelling for price forecasting is demonstrated on the basis of general characteristics of international price mechanisms.
6
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Możliwości wykorzystania metody współwiązań w prognozowaniu handlu zagranicznego

100%
Marciniak Z., Instytut Ekonomiki i Polityki Handlu Zagranicznego SGPiS
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
|
1984
|
vol. 35
EN
The interrelations method is one of less known forecasting methods combining the merits of descriptive and econometric-statistical methods. The essence of the method consists in determining probabilities of realization of events in the future while taking into account interrelations between events. This method consists of two procedural phases: phase of collecting and handling the input information, and phase of Information processing by means of computer. The main merits of this method include a possibility of forecasting measurable and immeasurable events, a possibility of elaborating forecasts for any period of time, and a possibility of simultaneous forecasting of many events.
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.