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EN
The article tries to present the role and significance of Germany in overcoming European debt crisis an stabilization of the euro zone. It consists of three parts focusing consecutively on analysis of the following issues: the origin, essence and implications of the euro zone crisis for Germany; the role of Germany in activities for overcoming euro zone debt crisis; challenges of fiscal pact for stabilization of the euro zone as well as the role of Germany in the EU. The principle thesis of the article is: the main reasons of the euro zone crisis are both results of global financial and economic crisis of 2007–2009 and – revealed in 2009 – excessive debt some southern euro zone states, especially Greece. On the other hand, the progressive euro zone debt crisis proved the incorrect functioning of economic and monetary union mechanisms in the context of degenerations and turbulences of globalization process. As the strongest state of the euro zone, in economic and financial terms, Germany played a leading role both in attempts to help Greece during 2009–2010 period and in attempts to work out in cooperation with France new mechanisms for stabilization of euro zone during in 2010–2011, which took form of two instruments – European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and European Stability Mechanism. The attempt of partial implementation of the instruments mentioned above succeeded only to some degree. That in turn led to forcing through the guidelines of the Fiscal Pact, which tightens budget discipline criteria, by Germany and France at the meeting of the European Council on 9th–10th December, 2011. The Fiscal Pact has been signed by 17 euro zone states and 8 non-euro zone member states of the EU apart form the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic. The final implementation of the pact will be possible just after its ratification by 12 states over 2012. However, due to diversity of national interests of different EU members, it may come across many serious hardships and challenges which had been thoroughly discussed using Germany as an example. In the final part of the article the author presents problems and challenges faced by chancellor Merkel’s and president Sarkozy’s administrations, i.e. so-called Merkozy tandem, as for creating strategy overcoming debt crisis and stabilizing of the euro zone. These are the results of both increasing opposition against the concept of further austerity measures and threats of sanctions included in the Fiscal Pact. In this contexts probably the Fiscal Pact is going to be complemented with so-called Pact for Growth on May 2012. The success or failure of the actions aimed to stabilization of the euro zone mentioned above will, ultimately, have an influence not only on developments within Germany and the euro zone but also it will concurrently have impact on the EU’s role and international position, including Poland.
EN
In the paper the author raises the issue of challenges resulting from euro zone crisis for shaping new role and partnership of Germany and Poland in the EU. The paper consists of three parts, in which one by one the following problems has been presented: Germany’s role in the stabilization of the euro zone (1); implications of the crisis for Poland seeking new role within the EU (2); and challenges for developing of a permanent Polish-German partnership in the EU (3). The principal thesis of the article is as follows: during 2010-2013 Germany, due to its significant economic and financial potential as well as successively implemented domestic reforms, assumed the key role in actions aimed at stabilizing the euro zone. Because of questionable effectiveness of former German strategy for saving the euro area its gradual modification towards substitution of cuts and sanctions policy with activities for economic growth and reduction of unemployment in the EU cannot be excluded. The progressing euro zone crisis with accompanying divisions within the EU led to Poland seeking to enter the first integration circle by development of Polish-German partnership among other things. The successive accomplishment of the above-mentioned goal is a giant challenge for Poland, demanding on its part to unambiguously determine of its interests and aims within activities for accession to the euro area. It also entails providing the public opinion with deepened and thorough analysis of real benefits and threats resulting from Poland’s accession to the euro zone.
EN
The purpose of the article is to provide a synthetic presentation of the challenges and controversies concerning the crisis in the Euro zone, with a special focus on Germany. The article contains three parts discussing the origin and nature of the Euro zone crisis, the role played by Germany during the successive stages of the crisis, main political controversies concerning the Euro zone and their consequences for Germany. In the author’s opinion the reasons for the crisis which hit the sixteen members of the Euro zone should be traced back to the consequences of the financial and economic crisis of 2007–2009 and the symptoms of excessive indebtedness of some southern countries of the Euro zone, especially Greece, revealed already in 2009. Being politically and economically the strongest state in the European Union, Germany played an important role in the process of supporting and helping Greece in the years of 2009–2010, and together with France in the process of hammering out new mechanisms for stabilizing the situation in the Euro zone in 2010. In the concluding part of the article the author presents very sharp controversies within the German government, political elites, experts and German general public concerning the issue of saving the Euro, pointing at the pluses and minuses of the strategy for rescuing and stabilizing the Euro zone as well as the whole of the European Union, worked out by the groups gathered round Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Sarkozy. The success or failure of the strategies will have an impact on the development of the situation in Germany, in the Euro zone as well as on the role and international position of the EU, including Poland. The analysis has been based on the extensive source materials, publications on the issue and author’s own research.
PL
Celem artykułu jest syntetyczne przedstawienie wyzwań i kontrowersji wokół kryzysu strefy euro na przykładzie Niemiec. Składa się on z trzech części, w których przedstawiono: genezę i istotę kryzysu strefy euro, rolę Niemiec w poszczególnych fazach kryzysu strefy euro, główne kontrowersje polityczne wokół strefy euro oraz ich następstwa dla Niemiec. Zasadniczą przyczyną kryzysu 16 krajów UE, będących członkami strefy euro, są zdaniem autora skutki światowego kryzysu finansowo-gospodarczego z lat 2007– 2009 oraz ujawnione już w 2009 r. symptomy nadmiernego zadłużenia niektórych krajów południowych powyższej strefy, zwłaszcza Grecji. Jako najsilniejsze państwo finansowo-gospodarcze Unii – Niemcy odegrały pierwszoplanową rolę w udzielanej Grecji w latach 2009/2010 pomocy oraz w procesie wypracowania, wspólnie z Francją, nowych mechanizmów stabilizowania strefy euro w 2010 r. W końcowej części artykuł autor przedstawia ostre kontrowersje w łonie rządu chadecko-liberalnego, elit politycznych, ekspertów oraz niemieckiej opinii publicznej wokół ratowania euro, wskazując zarówno na argumenty za, jak i przeciw, wypracowanej przez otoczenie kanclerz Angeli Merkel oraz prezydenta Nicolasa Sarkozy’ego, strategii na rzecz stabilizacji strefy euro oraz całej UE. Powodzenie lub niepowodzenie powyższych działań stabilizujących strefę euro będzie oddziaływało na dalszy rozwój sytuacji wewnętrznej Niemiec i strefy euro, a także rzutowało na rolę i pozycję międzynarodową UE, w tym Polski. Analiza została oparta na obszernych materiałach źródłowych i literaturze przedmiotu oraz poszukiwań badawczych autora.
EN
The article attempts to synthetically analyze the premises and challenges involving Germany’s search for new international role and responsibility in the era of snowballing crises afflicting the European Union. The basic task of the analysis is to show the interdependence between various aspects of theoretical and applied studies as well as their impact on practical formulation of Germany’s international position in the 21st century by the subsequent federal governments on the examples of the eurozone crisis (2010–2015) and the EU’s migration crisis lasting since the midst of the 2015. The text consists of three parts, in which the following issues were presented in sequence: 1) the general premises of the evolution of the unifi ed Germany’s international role; 2) the hunt for new international role and responsibility of Germany in the context of attempts to solve the eurozone crisis after 2010; 3) the challenges for German leadership in the EU with particular reference to the chancellor Angela Merkel’s role in migration crisis of 2015/2016. The principal thesis of the paper is as follows: Due to the giant economic-fi nancial potential as well as the important position within the EU, Germany played a crucial role in the endeavours to fi nish the crisis and to stabilize the eurozone after 2010. However, the serious diffi culties accompanying massive infl ow of illegal refugees to Germany and the entire Europe since the half of 2015, which so far have not been unambiguously solved, are truly enormous challenges for the German and chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership in the EU.
PL
Artykuł przedstawia implikacje wyborów do Bundestagu z 24 września 2017 r. oraz znaczenie masowego napływu ok. 1 mln nielegalnych uchodźców dla przemian wewnętrznych oraz roli Niemiec w UE. Według wszystkich sondaży ankietowych zwycięzcą wyborów do Bundestagu będzie chadecja – CDU/CSU, która utworzy nowy rząd z liberałami (FDP), bądź będzie zmuszona utrzymać dotychczasową koalicję z socjaldemokratami (SPD). Krytyka przewodniczącej CDU Angeli Merkel za otwarcie granic Niemiec dla nielegalnych uchodźców 2015/2016 nie zmniejsza szans jej ponownego zwycięstwa wyborczego. Strategia Merkel ma na celu przezwyciężenie licznych kryzysów unijnych, dalsze umocnienie roli Niemiec w UE oraz zacieśnienie bliskiej współpracy z nowym prezydentem Francji M. Macronem w ramach gruntownie zreformowanej strefy euro do 2025 r.
EN
The article presents implications of elections to Bundestag set for the 24 September 2017 as well as signifi cance of massive infl ow of about one million illegal refugees for domestic changes and the role of Germany in the EU. According to all opinion polls the winner of the incoming elections will be Christian Democrats – CDU/CSU, which will create a new government together with liberals (FDP) or it will be hypothetically forced to keep the foregoing coalition with Social Democrats (SPD). The criticism toward the CDU leader Angela Merkel for the opening of German borders to illegal refugees at the breakthrough of 2015 and 2016 does not decrease her chances for the reelection. Merkel’s strategy heads for overcoming of numerous EU’s crises, further strengthening of German role in the EU as well as tightening of cooperation with new French president E. Macron within profoundly reformed eurozone to 2025.
EN
The paper synthetically presents new trends and selected issues concerning Germany’s stance vis-à-vis Russia in the second decade of the 21st century. It concentrates on an analysis of the following substantive issues: – draft of the essence of domestic political shifts in Germany and Russia in international context; – presentation of general assumptions featuring the new strategy in German policy vis-à-vis Russia; – showing principal challenges as well as selected problems of German cooperation with Russia in the period 2014-17; – underscoring new tendencies in Russia’s impingement on Germany together with German judgments as to Russia’s international role in the era of the Ukrainian crisis in light of opinion polls. Over the years 2003-17, as a result of internal changes in Germany, a multi-party system took on a shape that made it harder to create a coalition and a new government after the parliamentary election of September 24, 2017. In Russia, in turn, the authoritarian government system with president Vladimir Putin at the helm strengthened. President Putin, through the annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donbas, begot to the persistent destabilization of Ukraine. The above mentioned developments were accompanied by a transition from the post-Cold War, unipolar international system, with the United States on top, towards a multipolar international system with the rising significance of China and Russia. Russia transformed into a geopolitical “competitor” of its strategic partner, Germany. On the other hand, Germany – as a leading EU and NATO state – together with France attempted to solve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It managed merely to achieve a partial armistice in Donbas within the framework of the OSCE mission (the Second Minsk Agreement from February 12, 2015). Due to the strong political and economic ties, Germany solely and temporarily suspended some forms of contact and cooperation with Russia and decided to reintroduce them in 2015. Germany engaged in hammering Western sanctions against Russia and their implementation during 2014-18. It concurrently supported Ukraine in its endeavors to achieve association with the EU in 2016. Simultaneously, Russia took advantage of its trump cards in the form of its presence in Germany (“Russian Germans”, media: Sputnik and RT as well as sympathy in some political and social circles) to prop up anti-Western and populist tendencies in this country.
DE
Der Beitrag hat einen gegenwärtigen und prognostischen Charakter, konzentriert sich der Reihe nach auf die Analyse allgemeiner interner Bedingungen und Yoraussetzungen der Aussenpolitik der Regierung der Grossen Koalition CDU/CSU/SPD, auf ihre grundsätzliche Interessen und Prioritäten, sowie Initiativen seit ihrer Entstehung im November 2005, sowie auf einen Versuch, die mittel- und lang- fristige aussenpolitische Strategie im Kontext der gegenwärtigen und künfitigen Herausforderungen im europäischen und globalen Ausmass zu gestalten. Die wichtigste Stelle nimmt die Analyse der europäischen Integrationspolitik Deutschlands ein, in der die Grundprioritäten waren: Funktionsweise, Reformen und eine weitere EU-Erweiterung. Diese Angelegenheiten werden gemeinsam mit der Modifizierung und künftigen Ratifizierung des Verfassungsvertrages für Europa zu zentralen Punkten der EU-Präsidentschaft. Im Rahmen der G-8-Präsindentschaft wird Deutschland in einem stärkeren Ausmass sich für die Lösung globaler Probleme engagieren, insbesondere im Bereich Umweltschutz, Bekämpfung des internationalen Terrorismus u. ä. sowie für die Stärkung der Wirksamkeit der Entwicklungshilfe, insbesondere für die ärmsten und verschuldeten Südlander.Nach dem Regierungswechsel in Deutschland und Polen im Herbst 2005 kam es zu keinem wesentlichen Durchbruch zwischen den beiden Staaten sowohl bezüglich der Reform der Funktionsweise und der energetischen Sicherheit der EU, als auch in bilateralen Problemen, darunter insbesondere bezüglich der Nordpipeline von Russland nach Deutschland. Die oben erwähnten Sachbereiche werden weiterhin Gegenstand deutsch-polnischer Gespräche sein.
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