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1

How information about probabilities and pay-offs is combined in risk judgment?

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Sokolowska J., Pohorille A.
Polish Psychological Bulletin
|
2004
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vol. 35
|
issue 3
141-152
EN
In most theories of risk judgment, it is assumed that probabilities and payoffs combine multiplicatively. However, there is empirical evidence that risk judgment is better represented by an additive combination of probability and utility. So far, this additive relation has been demonstrated only for risk rates averaged over all participants. Thus, it may be argued that the observed additive combination rule is an artifact of averaging individual strategies focused either on probabilities or payoffs. In this experiment, both the average and individual risk rates were compared with prediction of the multiplicative and additive models. The additive model provides good description of actual risk rates, both for the averages and for a majority of participants individually, whereas the multiplicative model performs poorly. Moreover, the analysis of the relative importance of payoffs and probabilities in risk judgments points to individual differences in weighting both factors but does not support concerns that the additive relation between probability and amount of loss results from averaging individual strategies, in which participants pay attention to only one of these two dimension.
2

EXPECTED PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS. THE ROLE OF SITUATIONAL AND PERSONALITY FACTORS

100%
Sokolowska J., Klonowicz T.
Psychological Studies
|
2006
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vol. 44
|
issue 2
69-81
EN
The study was aimed at evaluating the impact of situational and personality factors on expectation of success. Participants (130 university students) estimated their probability of success in two - lottery and competition - situations. 'Success scenarios' for the two situations were constructed in such a way, as to include situations in which the number of winners participants was higher, equal, or lower than the number of participants who win nothing. The two personality characteristics under study were dispositional optimism (assessed with the LOT-R) and belief in good luck (assessed with the BIGL). The data indicate that in both the lottery and competition situations people display optimistic expectations of success. These optimistic expectations depend most strongly on the objective frequency of outcomes, however, optimistic expectations were higher in competition than in the lottery situations. The role of individual differences in dispositional optimism and/or belief in good luck was most salient in ambiguous situations (equal probability of winning vs. not winning). Under lottery condition optimistic expectations of success were positively associated with belief in good luck, whereas under competition these expectations were positively related to disposional optimism. In general the impact of situational factors was more salient than the impact of personal factors on expectancies of success.
3

DOES INFORMATION DISPLAY AFFECT THE WAY IN WHICH INFORMATION ABOUT PROBABILITIES AND PAY-OFFS IS COMBINED IN RISK JUDGMENT?

100%
Sokolowska J., Kossakowska B.
Psychological Studies
|
2004
|
vol. 42
|
issue 3
89-106
EN
In most theories of risk judgment the multiplicative combination of probabilities and payoffs is assumed. However, some authors argue and have shown empirically that risk judgment is represented by an additive combination of probability and utility. In these studies, information about probability was presented differently from information about payoffs. This, in turn, could encourage subjects to consider separately each dimension leading to their additive combination in risk judgments. Thus, here it is tested whether the empirical support for an additive combination of probability and utility could result from the way in which information about payoffs and probability was presented. Three different graphic forms of stimuli presentation were used (Experiment 1) and the easiness of information processing about either dimension was controlled (Experiment 2). In general, it has been found that information display affects the strength of main effects of utility and probability on risk rates. However, the results indicate that information display affects neither value of risk rates nor the pattern by which information is combined.
4

Risk perception, risk acceptance, and dispositional optimism

100%
Sokolowska J., Klonowicz T.
Polish Psychological Bulletin
|
2004
|
vol. 35
|
issue 1
55-63
EN
A quasi-experimental study was designed to examine, whether (1) perceived risk is a function of the relative frequency of bad to good outcomes and (2) individual differences in dispositional optimism influence risk perception and risk acceptance. A total of 263 undergraduate students of psychology (189 women and 74 men) participated in the study. Subgroups of high- and low optimism selected on the basis of their optimism scores were presented with 28 multi-outcome gambles and asked to rate risk separately for each gamble and next indicate, whether they would play a given gamble or not. The data indicate that: (1) risk judgments depend on the ratio of bad to good outcomes in the outcomes' distribution, (2) high- and low optimists did not differ with respect to average risk rates but in more optimistic persons decision making would be associated with more trade-offs.
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