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Zoon Politikon
|
2017
|
issue 8
313-338
PL
Powstanie w czerwcu 2014 r. tak zwanego Państwa Islamskiego (Daesh) na terenie Iraku i Syrii, w szczególności zaś jego szybkie sukcesy terytorialne, w tym poparcie, jakim zaczęło się Daesh cieszyć wśród niektórych środowisk radykalnych na Bliskim Wschodzie, ale i w wielu państwach Europy, było szokiem zarówno dla establishmentów rządzących w regionie, jak i dla przywódców Zachodu. W celu zapobieżenia rozszerzenia się Daesh na kolejne państwa regionu administracja Baracka Obamy zorganizowała Globalna Koalicję Przeciwko Daesh. W działania przeciwko Deash włączyła się również Rosja oraz Iran, jednak głównym celem obu krajów jest zapobieżenie upadku reżimu w Damaszku. Utrata przez Daesh większości terytorium w 2017 r. nie oznacza wyeliminowania tej organizacji w tym radykalizmu z Bliskiego Wschodu. Pojawiły się natomiast nowe punkty zapalne, w tym związane z kwestią kurdyjską, jak również problem powrotów zradykalizowanych bojowników do krajów pochodzenia.
EN
The establishment in June 2014 of the so-called Islamic State (Daesh) in Iraq and Syria, in particular its rapid success territorial, including support, which began Daesh enjoying among some circles of radical Middle East, but also in many European countries, it was a shock for both for of the establishment's rulers in the region and for Western leaders. In order to prevent Daesh from spreading to other countries in the region, Barack Obama's administration organized a Global Coalition Against Daesh. In these actions against the spread of Daesh Russia and Iran was also included, but the main goal of both countries is to prevent the fall of the regime in Damascus. The loss by Daesh majority territory in 2017 does not mean the elimination of the organization radicalism of the Middle East. There are however some new flashpoints, including those related to the Kurdish issue, as well as the problem of radicalized fighters returning to their countries of origin.
EN
Despite the hopes of the Palestinians, the outbreak of the Arab Spring, instead of accelerating positive changes, led to a significant deterioration of the situation in the region and in the Palestinian Authority itself. Positive economic processes have been stopped. Successive Israeli military operations devastated the Gaza Strip. The divisions on the West Bank ruled by the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hamas controlling the Gaza Strip deepened. Social sentiment among Palestinians has deteriorated. In view of the emergence of the so-called Islamic State in the region, the international community, in particular the US, lost interest in resolving the Middle Eastern conflict. The moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, in May 2018, was a blow to the Palestinians. But what’s the worst, is the loss of Israeli trust to the Palestinians, especially the fact that the idea of a two-state solution has been questioned in Israel. The partial success that the Palestinians achieved by obtaining the status of an observer in the United Nations in 2012 does not balance the losses that the 2011–2018 period brought to the Palestinian cause. There are many indications that the Palestinian National Authority is at a crossroad, on the eve of changes that will have to take into account the changes that have taken place in recent years.
PL
Wbrew nadziejom Palestyńczyków wybuch Arabskiej Wiosny, zamiast przyśpieszyć pozytywne przemiany doprowadził do pogorszenia sytuacji w regionie i samej Autonomii Palestyńskiej. Zostały zatrzymane oczekiwane procesy gospodarcze. Doszło do kilku dewastujących Strefę Gazy operacji militarnych Izraela. Pogłębiły się podziały – na Zachodni Brzeg rządzony przez OWP oraz Hamas kontrolujący Strefę Gazy. Pogorszeniu uległy nastroje społeczne wśród Palestyńczyków. Wobec pojawienia się w regionie tzw. Państwa Islamskiego, wspólnota międzynarodowa, w szczególności USA, straciły zainteresowanie trudnym do rozwiązania konfl iktem bliskowschodnim. Ciosem dla Palestyńczyków było przeniesienie przez Donalda Trumpa, w maju 2018 r., ambasady USA w Izraelu z Tel Awiwu do Jerozolimy. Wobec pogłębiających się problemów w Autonomii Palestyńskiej, w tym utraty zaufania do Palestyńczyków ze strony Izraela, kwestionowana zaczęła być w Izraelu idea rozwiązania dwupaństwowego, to jest przyszłego pokojowego współistnienia żydowskiego Izraela i arabskiej Palestyny. Połowiczny sukces, jaki osiągnęli Palestyńczycy uzyskując w 2012 r. statusu państwa obserwatora w ONZ nie równoważy strat, dla sprawy palestyńskiej z lat 2011–2018. Wiele wskazuje, że Palestyńska Władza Narodowa znajduje się dziś w przededniu przeobrażeń, które będą musiały uwzględnić niekorzystne zmiany, które zaszły w ostatnich latach.
EN
The al-Qaeda terrorist attacks upon the United States on September 11, 2001, in the Western countries commonly acknowledged to be the turning-point in relations with the Islamic world, were merely a reflection of the growing from several decades Muslims' dislike for the West of which initially the most important reason was the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, unsolved from 1948. However, the actual situation was also influenced by: the consequences of the Yom Kipur War in 1973, which proved the dependence of the West, especially Europe, on the Middle Eastern petroleum supplies; the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the rising of the first Islamic republic which was accompanied by gradual rejection of Western influence and values adopted during the colonial period; and finally the Mujahedeen victory during the Soviet war in Afghanistan in 1978-1989. The success in Afghanistan made many Muslims believe that elimination of the Western influence also from the other Middle Eastern countries is possible. In 1990s the Islamic radicals, including al-Qaeda leaders, succeeded in convincing some Muslims that the West, together with cooperating local Arab leaders, are responsible for the deepening civilizational backwardness of the region. Several awkward statements of Western politicians, including the one of George Bush initially describing the operation of elimination of the Saddam Hussein's regime from Iraq in 2003 as a 'crusade', confirmed many Muslims' opinion on the hostile intentions of the West. However, the chances are that the real causes of the deteriorating economic situation of the Islamic world are internal: above all the very high demographic expansion and the persistent poor economic performance. Both the Western and the Arab experts point out that the Middle Eastern Islamic world needs political and economic reorganization to surpass the obstacles obstructing its development. Unfortunately, nothing yet indicates that the American authoritative attempt to introduce Western-style reforms and democracy in the Middle East was successful. The direct effect that problems of the Southern Mediterranean Coast countries have upon the European security (the increasing terrorist threat, illegal immigration, ecological problems) was the ground of decisions taken by the UE leaders in regards of the policy towards this region. The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, initiated in 1995 in Barcelona, is a coordination forum for the cooperation between the Northern and Southern countries. Today it is still difficult to predict the future of the Middle East but it seems that in the most part it will depend on the very inhabitants of the region. Due to those new factors that added to the tension after 1948, at the moment nothing indicates that even the probable resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict could fully recover peace in the region but it could at least seriously improve the mutual relations of both civilizations.
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