The events of 11 September 2001, bloody terrorist attacks in Middle East, Bali Island, Dubrovka, Madrid or London, like thousands of other terror acts, depict how difficult, complicated and, at the same time, dangerous and unexpected phenomenon we deal with. Terrorism can undoubtedly be labeled on of the most important global problem of the present world. In this article the author tries to bring the problem of the Chechnya conflict, which is – in the eyes of international public opinion – today regarded as Russia’s internal affair. NewYork terrorist attacks of 11 September helped the West to perceive this war as an element of international fight with Islamic fundamentalism.
Dwadzieścia kilka lat niepodległej Ukrainy to stanowczo za mało, by móc w pełni idarzetelnie stawić hipotezy odnośnie rozwoju sytuacji wewnętrznej i zewnętrznej tego państwa, niemniej jednak, już to pozwala nam snuć pewne przypuszczenia.W artykule przedstawiona jest wizja rozwoju sytuacji politycznej na Ukrainie, jaka zdaniem autora nastąpi – a raczej już następuje – po wyborach parlamentarnych z 2012. Owa – uproszczona – wizja skonstruowana jest w oparciu o jedną z metod prognozowania, zwaną metodą scenariusza międzynarodowego. Biorąc pod uwagę fakt, że prognozowanie zjawisk społecznych bywa pod wieloma względami utrudnione (co wynika m.in. z tego, że w naturze tych zjawisk tkwi silne i wielostronne powiązanie z innymi zjawiskami społecznymi; ale nie tylko – także fizycznymi czy biologicznymi) w artykule przywołano wybrane problemy prognozowania, zwłaszcza te związane z metodą scenariusza międzynarodowego, następnie odniesiono ową metodę do sytuacji politycznej na Ukrainie. Zdaniem Autora Ukraina w kolejnych latach znajdzie się – a raczej już się znajduje – na równi pochyłej, staczając się w stronę reżimów autorytarnych, lub przynajmniej “umacniając się” wśród reżimów hybrydowych.
EN
The twenty or so years of Ukrainian sovereignty is definitely too short a period to facilitate fully justified hypotheses concerning the development of both the domestic and international situation of Ukraine, but it does make it possible to make some conjectures. This paper presents a scenario for the development of Ukraine’s political situation which, in the author’s opinion, will take place, or is actually in progress, following the 2012 parliamentary elections. This simplified scenario has been designed employing a forecasting method named the international scenario method. Taking into consideration that forecasting social phenomena tends to be difficult in many respects (which is a consequence of their strong and multifarious relations not only with other social, but also physical and biological, phenomena) the paper refers to selected forecasting issues, in particular those related to the international scenario method, which is then applied to the political situation of Ukraine. In the author’s opinion, in the years to come Ukraine will continue to degenerate towards authoritarian regimes, or will ‘strengthen’ its status as a hybrid regime.
Forecasting social phenomena may be hampered in many ways. This is because in nature of these phenomena lies strong and multilateral connection with other social phenomena; but not only – also physical and biological (natural) ones. The content of this publication constitutes presentation of chosen problems of forecasting in social sciences. The attention in the article was focused among others on deterministic chaos theory, on the attempt of its implementation to phenomena from the scope (or from borderline) of social sciences: economy, logistics, science about safety etc. Moreover, one of the threads of ponderation was the attempt to consider whether it’s possible to create so-called final theory. The aim of the publication is to signalize possibilities of taking advantage of seemingly exotic for “political scientists” methodology of modeling and explaining phenomena, having its source in exact sciences (in chaos theory) to study social phenomena and processes.
Energy security is one of the targets of the energy policies adopted by modern states and more and more by supranational structures. At the same time, it is a precondition for a country’s economic growth and the society’s well-being. In the 21 century, we depend on both primary (like electricity) and secondary energy carriers. Among the latter, oil and natural gas played and play an important role in the foreign policies of a number of states. But for resistance from political elites and business a substantial part of energy sources, whose depletion and disastrous effects on climate are touched upon by the same people, could already be successfully replaced. The article represents a contribution to the discussion on the future of world energy production. The concepts referred to might seem pointless, unreal, or trivial, but let us hope that thanks to the discoveries and ideas of both individuals and research teams, the energy problems of the world will be overcome.
The aim of the publication is to present selected forecasting problems in social sciences. The article focuses on the method of Grey Theory System. Particular attention is paid to the complexity of such systems as the political system, and consequently the shortcomings of traditional research methods such as system analysis. The purpose of the publication is to signal the use of such an exotic “methodology” for political science as grey-scale methodology and fuzzy modeling for forecasting political phenomena.
PL
Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na teorii szarych systemów. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię komplikacji wynikających ze złożoności takich systemów, jak system polityczny, a w konsekwencji na niedostatki tradycyjnych metod badawczych – takich jak chociażby metoda analizy systemowej. Celem publikacji jest zasygnalizowanie możliwości wykorzystania tak zdawałoby się egzotycznej dla „politologów” metodologii szarych systemów oraz modelowania rozmytego do prognozowania zjawisk politycznych.
The objective of scientific forecasting is to present the most probable course of an analyzed phenomenon, taking into account the direction and dynamics of its development. In the course of making forecasts one endeavors to determine the conditions providing for the evolution of this phenomenon. Twenty-something years of an independent Ukraine is decidedly too short a period to facilitate responsible hypothesizing on the development of internal and external situation of this country, but some suppositions are justified. On account of the limitations of this paper the author analyzes only selected events from the recent history of Ukraine. The analysis does not answer the question of whether the recurring crises in Ukraine result primarily from phenomena that cyclically occur in a democracy (i.e. elections), and are simply inherent in it or not. Alternatively, when the chronic nature of a crisis (not: crises) is assumed, it may be concluded that as Ukraine emerges ‘unscathed’ from each stage of the crisis it evolves towards a new, more advanced phase, in consistence with Kondratiev’s theories of economic and political cycles.
Prognozowanie zjawisk społecznych bywa pod wieloma względami utrudnione. Wynika to stąd, że w naturze tych zjawisk tkwi silne i wielostronne powiązanie z innymi zjawiskami społecznymi; ale nie tylko - także fizycznymi czy biologicznymi. Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów, z jakimi borykają się aktualnie - zwłaszcza w naukach społecznych (w tym także w naukach politycznych) - futurolodzy. Choć artykuł przedstawia różne metody badawcze, ich klasyfikacje itd.. to skoncentrowano się przede wszystkim na metodach heurystycznych: ich genezie, zasadach, sposobie wykorzystania.
EN
Forecasting social phenomena can, in many ways, be difficult. The reason is that it is the nature of these phenomena to be closely and multilaterally linked with physical, biological, and other social phenomena. The main aim of this article is to present selected problems related to futurology. Although various research methods are presented in this text, the main focus was put to heuristic methods (their development, rules, ways of application ect.).
The aim of the publication is to present selected forecasting problems in social sciences. The article focused on the method of decision-making/simulation games that, especially with the development of game theory and computers, have increasingly been used in many fields. Using examples of decision/simulation games - Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E - and the online game EVE Online, the author recognised the importance of such exercises in an accurate prediction of the future. He drew special attention to the element of chance and confounding factors that may destabilise the process of prediction. He also raised the problem of decision-making in the context of classical and quantum logic.
PL
Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.
Treścią publikacji jest próba oceny pierwszego roku prezydentury W. Zełenskiego. Dokonując analizy procesu podejmowania decyzji przez W. Zełenskiego (posiłkując się metodą decyzyjną, instytucjonalno-prawną, systemową oraz indukcją i dedukcją) autor próbował odpowiedzieć, czy jest to działanie służące Ukrainie i jej dalekosiężnym interesom. Określając determinanty wpływające na politykę zagraniczną Ukrainy, autor starał się ukazać, co w dalszej perspektywie czeka kraj nad Dnieprem.
EN
The paper sets out to assess the first year of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidency. By analyzing the decision-making process followed by Zelensky (using the decision-making, institutional-legal, systems, induction and deduction methods), the author attempts to answer whether the process serves Ukraine and its long-term interests. By identifying the determinants affecting Ukraine’s foreign policy, the author tries to show the long term prospects for the country.
The recent years of the Trotskyite movement have seen the intensification of two tendencies. The first one involves a new perception of the radical social demands made by the Trotskyite candidates in local, parliamentary and presidential elections. The other one involves the functional incorporation of a broad range of youth and alternative issues into the Trotskyite movement. Similar elements are also present in the program of the Ukrainian Union ‘Struggle’, established in 1999. The ‘Struggle’ shares the opinions on the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the reasons for its failure with all other Trotskyite organizations. It has also developed quite a detailed approach to the issue of Ukrainian independence and the Orange Revolution. In the opinion of Ukrainian Trotskyists V. Yushchenko and V. Yanukovych represented the clans of oligarchs, who had the single aim of destroying the Ukrainian economy by privatizing national property and stealing what the former government did not manage to take away from the nation. The choice was not between Europe and Russia but between American capital waving a European flag and American capital waving a Russian flag. The ‘Struggle’ assumes though that the Orange Revolution has brought advantages as well: the judiciary is trusted, the nation no longer dreads corrupted bureaucracy and political processes raise social interest. It is doubtful that the nearest future will bring any significant changes in the influence of the Trotskyite movement. It is possible, however, that it will manage to contribute new elements to the growing anti-globalist movement. In terms of the Ukrainian future it may be justifiably assumed that society will become ‘disappointed’ with the new government. Then, radical groups with clear views, such as Trotskyists, are likely to participate in the government.
PL
The recent years of the Trotskyite movement have seen the intensification of two tendencies. The first one involves a new perception of the radical social demands made by the Trotskyite candidates in local, parliamentary and presidential elections. The other one involves the functional incorporation of a broad range of youth and alternative issues into the Trotskyite movement. Similar elements are also present in the program of the Ukrainian Union ‘Struggle’, established in 1999. The ‘Struggle’ shares the opinions on the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the reasons for its failure with all other Trotskyite organizations. It has also developed quite a detailed approach to the issue of Ukrainian independence and the Orange Revolution. In the opinion of Ukrainian Trotskyists V. Yushchenko and V. Yanukovych represented the clans of oligarchs, who had the single aim of destroying the Ukrainian economy by privatizing national property and stealing what the former government did not manage to take away from the nation. The choice was not between Europe and Russia but between American capital waving a European flag and American capital waving a Russian flag. The ‘Struggle’ assumes though that the Orange Revolution has brought advantages as well: the judiciary is trusted, the nation no longer dreads corrupted bureaucracy and political processes raise social interest. It is doubtful that the nearest future will bring any significant changes in the influence of the Trotskyite movement. It is possible, however, that it will manage to contribute new elements to the growing anti-globalist movement. In terms of the Ukrainian future it may be justifiably assumed that society will become ‘disappointed’ with the new government. Then, radical groups with clear views, such as Trotskyists, are likely to participate in the government.
Planning is a process of defining goals and identifying means and methods to achieve them, effective and relevant to future operating conditions, and therefore a diagnosis of a current situation, design and choice of goals, and ways to reach them. The main substance of this publication is to present research methods (methods of prediction) relating to the creation of the future of an organisation, especially a political organisation, or a country. They are: strategic planning and strategic review. In addition, the problems relating directly to the above methods such as limits to grand strategy, the Black Swan effect, the Tsunami effect, and the arguments against normative methods will be presented.
Forecasting is understood as predicting based on specific trustworthy data. Futurology in turn is the science of predicting the future. In the course of forecasting, we also aim to determine the conditions for the evolution of the analysed phenomenon. A forecast prepared for this purpose must take account of the known relationships, types, and intensity of external influences and internal changes expected in the development of the phenomenon under investigation. Forecasting social phenomena can in many ways be difficult. The reason is that it is the nature of these phenomena to be closely and multilaterally linked with physical, biological, and other social phenomena. Thus, making judgements about the future course of social phenomena, which, unlike physical phenomena based on “strong” science, are dependent on a large number of factors with varying degrees of stability is a complex task. The aim of the publication is an analysis of selected issues that affect predicting social phenomena, hence the paper discusses issues such as qualitative character of social science laws; Oedipus effect; syndromatic nature of social phenomena; evolving nature of social reality; substantive rationality and methodological rationality etc.
Various crises that Ukraine constantly goes through reflect/result from change the region is subject to. The transformation in Central and Eastern Europe is a complicated process that involves changes in the policy, economy, sociocultural system and so on. Often it is believed (as to whether rightly so that is another question) that such countries strengthen/strive after a liberal democracy. Ukraine’s position – in between Russia and weaker countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States – means the option of choosing the “3rd way”, that is shaping a sovereign national identity that is neither in Moscow’s sphere of influence, nor well integrated into the main organizations of the West, or the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. What were forecasts for after the 2010 presidential election? There were a few scenarios, but most often among those named as the new president, which was confirmed, were Y. Tymoshenko and V. Yanukovych (even though for some Arseniy Yatsenyuk was the “dark horse”). V. Yanukovych wan the Ukrainian presidential election 2nd round, gaining a 3.48 percentage point advantage over Y. Tymoshenko. The February 7 final round runoff ballot did not cause any disruption. National and international observers agreed that some flaws and abuse did not affect the result. Ukraine over the past 20 years has undergone significant change toward becoming quasi-western political and social entity. Although the Orange Revolution did not meet many expectations, it ensured that Ukraine could evolve. The most probable scenario is a continuation of Ukraine’s slow but evident move toward becoming integral part of the West. However, this is a long-term perspective.
Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – przede wszystkim na przykładzie Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość.
EN
The subject matter of the publication is presenting selected forecasting problems in the social sciences. The article focuses on the method of decision-making/simulation games that, especially with the development of game theory and computers, have increasingly been used in many fields. Using examples of decision/simulation games, in particular Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN, the author recognises the importance of such exercises in an accurate prediction of the future.