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Wskaźniki wyprzedzające dla polskiej gospodarki

100%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
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vol. 63
115-128
EN
This paper concerns leading indicators for Polish economy. It includes the Leading Indicator for whole economy and for its inflation. There are two kinds of leading indexes for whole economy: Leading Index, which consists of such series as new orders, building permits, stock prices and corporate profits. These series reliably lead the coincident index and GDP by several months, thus revealing the direction in which the economy is headed in the future; the other index is the relatively new - Long Leading Index. This index has roughly twice the lead of other leading indexes and provides forecasts of the coincident index and its components as well as GDP by as much as year in advance. Because of short term of observation, not proper or unavailable data, there are no possibilities to prepare long leading index for Polish economy up to this time. For Leading Index i used the quality and quantity series. The quantity series are: money supply (M2), credit liabilities of households, Warsaw stock price index and productivity (deflated value of sold production divided by number of employees). The quality data includes: new orders, financial situation of enterprises, inventories and consumer confidence index. The quality data is easily available and is collected using same methodology throughout the survey. All the data; both quality and quantity are seasonally adjusted using ARIMA X-12, deflated with the base year 1995=100 and standariesed. The regression between my Leading Index and the curve of production, GDP, and my Coincident Index with lead from 2 to 7 months is pretty high and amounts 0,89-0,95. The second leading index for Poland is Leading Index for Inflation. I used such components as: average of unit costs in industry, forecasts of prices, consumer confidence index (this dada is from surveys), real changes in money supply (M2), the value of zloty to dollar. This index represents the main tendency for inflation very well (comparing to CPl curve) but unfortunately it has very short lead - only 2-3 months.
2
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Psychologiczne uwarunkowania nastrojów konsumentów i propozycja alternatywnego ich pomiaru

100%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2011
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vol. 87: Zmiany aktywności gospodarczej w świetle wyników badań koniunktury
87-115
PL
W oparciu o wnioski z badań nad psychologicznymi uwarunkowaniami indeksów nastrojów konsumenckich, stworzona zostaje propozycja nowej formuły wskaźnika dobrobytu w oparciu o ilościowe dane statystki oficjalnej. Czynnikami ekonomicznymi mającymi decydujący wpływ na kształtowanie opinii konsumentów są: dochody, inflacja oraz zatrudnienie. Istotny dla kształtowania opinii konsumentów jest również sposób postrzegania przez człowieka tych kategorii ekonomicznych. Na kształtowanie opinii konsumentów większy wpływ wywierają zmiany zjawisk ekonomicznych niż ich poziomy. Ludzie nie dostrzegają zmian krótkookresowych. Asymetrycznie odbierają pozytywne i negatywne zmiany o tej samej wartości. Wnioski z badań prowadzą do konstrukcji Wskaźników Dobrobytu opartych na danych ilościowych statystyki oficjalnej. Zaprezentowano wskaźniki dla Polski, USA oraz Niemiec.
EN
This paper proposes a well-being index based upon psychological research and official qualitative statistics. The main economic factors that influence the consumer confidence are: inflation, employment, and income. The way people perceive these economic categories is crucial in estimating the consumer confidence. For consumer confidence, the changes in economic categories are more important than their overall levels. People do not perceive the short term changes. The impact of change in the economic categories on consumer confidence is asymmetrical. Specifically, the same value of economic change has a different impact depending on whether the change is positive or negative. These conclusions lead to the construction of well-being indexes, which were tested for Poland, US and Germany.
3
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Cykl koniunkturalny i próba jego weryfikacji na podstawie badań testem koniunktury w przemyśle

100%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1995
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vol. 46
71-92
EN
The study constitutes a theoretical approach to a business cycle in the economy supplemented with an attempt to verify it with findings of the business situation survey in the Polish industry in the systemic transformation period. A proncipal part of the study is predeced with a graphic presentation of business cycles in the economy, consisted of the four stages, according to the theory of business cycle: I - slowing down and ending of the period of reduction of productive activity, II - entry into a period of accelerated economic development, III - continuation of growth along with slowing down of its rate, until a maximum productive activity of the economy is attained, IV - entry into a stage of intensifying recession. Then, the author identifies factors which cause a regularity of fluctuations on a path to the development, focusing on changes in the global demand: an "old" demand (renewable in its volume and structure) and a "new" demand (demand on goods inaccesible in the previous business cycles). A theoretical part of the study contains an original explanation of a mechanism which generates the economy to pass through the four consecutive stages of a cycle. The mechanism was shown in a conceptual diagram where a time sequence of interaction among different categories was specified. These categories are: changes in components of a global demand, stocks, output volume, proces, inclination of enterprises to get bigger profits, propensity to save, changes of demand for credits, changes in investments, interest rates, import and export. This is a set of many links of the feedback along with time-legs in adjustment of one quantity to anotheer. This mechanisms' activity, calles a mechanism of changes in the business cycle, has been verified for the Polish economy cince 1990, having in mind: stage one - deepening recession (January 1990 - June 1990), stage two - stagnation in recession (July 1990 - February 1992), stage three - business revival (March 1992 - January 1994), stage four - economic growth (since February 1994). A descriptive method is used to verify the mechanisms, with a reference to statistical data collected in the RIED (replies of big-scale enterprises to questions of the industrial survey).
4
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Reasons Why Poland Avoided the 2007-2009 Recession

100%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2011
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vol. 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference
39-66
EN
Poland was the only economy among the European Union members, which avoided the recession of 2007-09. Nevertheless, the impact of global recession was visible in many areas of the Polish economy. The paper analyzes some of the main reasons behind this outstanding performance. The analysis is based on data from business surveys, composite coincident and leading indexes and official statistics on Poland’s economy. The reasons are divided into four groups: (1) General economic condition before the global crisis. In this part the large inflow of direct investments and fast growing productivity throughout 2004-2007 are emphasized. (2) Structural factors related to the stage of Poland’s economic development. The main factors in this group are: low dependence on business and consumer credit; absence of high risk financial instruments (securities based on US subprime mortgages) in the banking sector; relatively small external ties of the Polish economy with relatively big domestic market. (3) Benefits of the EU membership. Poland benefited from the large share of investments linked to EU transfers since May 2004. It boosted the activity in sectors such as building and construction and reduced the scale of layoffs. (4) Market forces. Despite Poland’s goal to join the euro area as soon as possible, its own currency and floating exchange rates helped to enhance Polish export during recession. Strong Polish currency during the period of high oil prices (2007-2008) prevented the economy from increasing costs of production and made imports cheaper. The later depreciation of the zloty (2008-2009) made export goods more competitive on the international markets which prevented Polish exports from declining. Another factor in this group is the absence of any special stimulus programs undertaken by the government.
5
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Od recesji do boomu. Wahania cykliczne polskiej gospodarki 1990-2007

100%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2008
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vol. 80
25-40
6
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III. Założenia analizy cykli koniunkturalnych

88%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2006
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vol. 77
75-100
7
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Charakterystyka wskaźników wyprzedzających

75%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2002
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vol. 73
41-51
8
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I. Podstawowe pojęcia i definicje

75%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2006
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vol. 77
9-31
9
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V. Cykl koniunkturalny a inflacja

75%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2006
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vol. 77
147-166
10
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Composite Leading Indexes

75%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2004
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vol. 74
332-339
11
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VII. Cykl koniunkturalny a rynek pracy

75%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2006
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vol. 77
198-208
12
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Using Survey Data for Labor Market Leading lndex

51%
Drozdowicz-Bieć M., Pater R., Wargacki M.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2008
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vol. 79
118-148
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