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Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

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Sunega P., Lux M., Zemčík P.
Critical Housing Analysis
|
2014
|
vol. 1
|
issue 2
70-78
EN
Econometric models have produced contradictory results and have failed to provide warning of housing market crashes. The article aims to illustrate how econometrics was unable to reliably predict the recent housing price bubble and detect the disequilibrium in the housing markets. The authors will demonstrate that two distinct but well specified econometric models, using the same data, can lead to different outcomes. The authors argue that the demand for housing is influenced by social constructs, social norms, ideologies, unrealistic expectations, symbolic patterns, and that the actual choice of housing is the outcome of complex social interactions with reference groups. Consequently, it is necessary to analyse the potential instability of social constructs, norms, expectations and the changing character of social interactions to better understand purchasing behaviour and, then, housing price volatility.
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