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1

The role of the housing market in monetary transmission

100%
Kiss G., Vadas G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 5
408-427
EN
The housing market is among the most important shaping factors behind monetary policy. This study sets out to reveal the role of the housing market in monetary transmission with special attention to Hungary. The authors begin by reviewing experience in the developed countries, especially experience with the monetary union. Then comes an account of processes in Hungary in the last few years and a tentative outline of likely events in the period up to introduction of the euro. An attempt is made by econometric methods to identify the relation between macroeconomic changes and housing prices, and the effects of monetary policy on housing investment and consumption by households.
2

What are we studying? The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation targeting in the first five years

81%
Jakab M. Z., Kiss G., Kovacs M. A.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 12
1101-1134
EN
This paper marks the fifth anniversary of the inflation targeting regime in Hungary by reviewing the role of forecasting in inflation-targeting regimes and evaluating the experiences of the National Bank of Hungary. A brief historical review is followed by a forecast assessment. Based on theoretically justified assessment of conditional forecasts, the following conclusions can be drawn. In most cases, the turning points in inflation were projected correctly, i. e. the monetary-policy signals were adequate. The statistical analysis of key forecast errors revealed that projection errors were unbiased. There were, however, projection errors as well, in wage adjustment, household consumption growth, and external activity of the corporate sector. Comprehensive analysis of the structure of the forecasting errors indicates that ex post forecasts have not utilized all information to an optimal extent. There was overreaction to the latest-quarter CPI figure, while the effect of nominal wages, exchange rates and oil prices might be weaker in the short run and stronger in the long run, compared with the National Bank forecasting methods.
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