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  1. 2 Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)

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  1. 2 2004

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  1. 2 Erdos T.

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How high can Hungary's sustainable growth rate be? II. Problems of sustainable economic growth at the time of the change of system

100%
Erdos T.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2004
|
vol. 51
|
issue 6
530-559
EN
The investment demand of the economic growth rate in Hungary is a starting point for estimating growth potential. Data for 1991-2001 as such suggest a sustainable growth rate of about 4.5 per cent. The realistically expectable rate will be much lower, as it is essential to modernize the infrastructure and alter the agricultural structure, while increasing environmental investment and overhauling education and the health service. Future contributions from foreign funds will be smaller than they were in the second half of the 1990s. The proportion of net savings by households will also ease. A fall in the calculable macro-level efficiency of investment will coincide with a reduction in the funds available for investment. These factors may be offset only partly by the resource-increasing and efficiency-improving effects of EU accession, so that the longer-term, sustainable growth rate can hardly exceed 3.0-3.5 per cent. Even that will be attainable only if the post-accession advantages provided by the EU are well utilized, if reforms are carried out in the great distribution systems and the growth is investment and export-led. Catching up with the EU average will take much longer than politicians had hoped, but the 3.0-3.5 per cent growth still counts as fast, although it will only be attained if unhampered by disputes over domestic political power.
2

How high can Hungary's sustainable growth rate be? I. Theoretical questions about sustainable economic growth

100%
Erdos T.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2004
|
vol. 51
|
issue 5
389-414
EN
The central question with sustainable economic growth is what rate can be achieved in the long term alongside internal and external equilibrium and without irreparable harm to the natural environment. At a given employment level, the growth rate is ultimately determined by technical development, but the rate is not irrespective of the proportion of investment. But a reverse relation applies here. Rather than the rate being arrived at from the investment ratio, but it determines the proportion of investment to GDP - through the general and marginal levels of capital efficiency. This brings to the fore the questions of investment funds and domestic savings, the external sources. Countries catching up with the developed economies usually suffer from a funding shortage, due to a number of factors, which gives special importance to investment efficiency and factors that increase internal sources and improve efficiency. A salutary role in these is played by reforming the system of institutions and developing human capital. The links make clear that the growth rate can be understood from the system of internal and external conditions - growth is endogenous in nature. The study underlines theoretical connections that help to determine the growth potential of the Hungarian economy.
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