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Pomiar obciążenia wskaźnika cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych

100%
Białek J.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2014
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vol. 271
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issue 3
63-80
EN
The article takes an in-depth look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is widely used as a basic measure of inflation. In practice, the author says, when measuring the CPI economists usually use the so-called Laspeyres price index, which does not take into account changes in the structure of consumption resulting from price changes in a given time interval. The problem is that the Laspeyres index can be biased due to commodity substitution, the author says. The article discusses potential sources of the CPI bias and the application of two approaches for calculating the index. The first approach is connected with superlative indices, while the second uses the so-called generalized Fisher price index. The article presents the results of empirical and simulation studies conducted by the author. An empirical analysis for the 2010–2013 period points to the existence of a small and unstable CPI substitution bias, according to the author. The simulation study, in turn, makes it possible to conclude that imputations of prices of new and disappearing goods are crucial for CPI bias calculations, Białek says. Moreover, the sign and value of the correlation between prices and quantities do not generally influence the CPI substitution bias in the broad sense, the author notes.
PL
Wskaźnik cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych (CPI, Consumer Price Index) stosowany jest jako podstawowa miara inflacji. W praktyce do pomiaru CPI używany jest indeks cen Laspeyresa z wagami z okresu bazowego. Tak liczony indeks nie uwzględnia zmian w strukturze konsumpcji, które są spowodowane zmianami cen w badanym przedziale czasowym. Oznacza to, że indeks liczony formułą Laspeyresa może być obciążony z tytułu substytucji dóbr (commodity substytution bias). Celem pracy jest omówienie potencjalnych źródeł obciążenia indeksu CPI oraz zastosowanie dwóch podejść do jego oszacowania. Pierwsze z nich wiąże się z pojęciem tzw. indeksów superlatywnych. Drugie związane jest z uogólnionym indeksem Fishera i pozwala na bardziej szczegółową dekompozycję obciążenia indeksu CPI. W artykule, poza wynikami badania empirycznego dla danych dla Polski, zaprezentowano również badanie symulacyjne uwzględniające uogólniony indeks Fishera. Analiza empiryczna dla okresu I 2010 – I 2013 prowadzi do wniosku o niewielkim, choć niestabilnym w czasie obciążeniu CPI wynikającym z tytułu substytucji dóbr. Badanie symulacyjne z kolei pozwala stwierdzić, że imputacja cen dóbr nowych i znikających ma diametralny wpływ na wielkość obciążenia CPI z tytułu ich substytucji. Ponadto można zaobserwować, że znak i wielkość korelacji pomiędzy cenami a ilościami dóbr z analizowanego koszyka CPI z reguły nie mają wpływu na wielkość obciążenia CPI w szerokim sensie.
2
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Quality adjusted GEKS-type indices for price comparisons based on scanner data

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Białek J.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2023
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vol. 24
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issue 3
151-169
EN
A wide variety of retailers (supermarkets, home electronics, Internet shops, etc.) provide scanner data containing information at the level of the barcode, e.g. the Global Trade Item Number (GTIN). As scanner data provide complete transaction information, we may use the expenditure shares of items as weightsfor calculating price indices at the lowest (elementary) level of data aggregation. The challenge here is the choice of the index formula which should be able to reduce chain drift bias and substitution bias. Multilateral index methods seem to be the best choice due to the dynamic character of scanner data. These indices work on a wholetime window and are transitive, which is key to the elimination of the chain drift effect. Following what is called an identity test, however, it may be expected that even when only prices return to their original values, the index becomes one. Unfortunately, the commonly used multilateral indices (GEKS, CCDI, GK, TPD, TDH) do not meet the identity test. The paper discusses the proposal of two multilateral indices and their weighted versions. On the one hand, the design of the proposed indices is based on the idea of the GEKS index. On the other hand, similarly to the Geary-Khamis method, it requires quality adjusting. It is shown that the proposed indices meet the identity test and most other tests. In an empirical and simulation study, these indices are compared with the SPQ index, which is relatively new and also meets the identity test. The analytical considerations as well as empirical studies confirm the high usefulness of the proposed indices.
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Some remarks on the original price index inspired by the notes of peter von der lippe

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Białek J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2013
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issue 3(41)
40-54
EN
We discuss an original price index formula presented in Białek [2012a] and Białek [2012b]. The inspiration for this discussion are the correlated notes of Prof. Peter von der Lippe. This article presents the author’s point of view on the problems considered by Prof. Peter von der Lippe and some other properties of the discussed formula.
4
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Proposition of Stochastic Postulates for Chain Indices

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Białek J.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2014
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vol. 15
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issue 4
545_558
EN
This article presents and discusses a proposition of stochastic postulates for chain indices. The presented postulates are based on the assumption that prices and quantities are stochastic processes and we consider also the case when price processes are martingales. We define general conditions which allow the chain indices to satisfy these postulates.
5
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Proposition of a hybrid price index formula for the Consumer Price Index measurement

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Białek J.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2020
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vol. 15
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issue 4
697-716
EN
Research background: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a basic, commonly accepted and used measure of inflation. The index is a proxy for changes in the costs of household consumption and it assumes constant consumer utility. In practice, most statistical agencies use the Laspeyres price index to measure the CPI. The Laspeyres index does not take into account movements in the structure of consumption which may be consumers' response to price changes during a given time interval. As a consequence, the Laspeyres index can suffer from commodity substitution bias. The Fisher index is perceived as the best proxy for the COLI but it needs data on consumption from both the base and research period. As a consequence, there is a practical need to look for a proxy of the Fisher price index which does not use current expenditure shares as weights. Purpose of the article: The general purpose of the article is to present a hybrid price index, the idea of which is based on the Young and Lowe indices. The particular aim of the paper is to discuss the usefulness of its special case with weights based on correlations between prices and quantities. Methods: A theoretical background for the hybrid price index (and its geometric version) is constructed with the Lowe and Young price indices used as a starting point. In the empirical study, scanner data on milk, sugar, coffee and rice are utilized to show that the hybrid index can be a good proxy for the Fisher index, although it does not use the expenditures from the research period. Findings & Value added: The empirical and theoretical considerations con-firm the hybrid nature of the proposed index, i.e. in a special case it forms the convex combination of the Young and Lowe indices. This study points out the usefulness of the proposed price index in the CPI measurement, especially when the target index is the Fisher formula. The proposed general hybrid price index formula is a new one in the price index theory. The proposed system of weights, which is based on the correlations between prices and quantities, is a novel idea in the price index methodology.
6
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The size of the substitution bias of inflation measurement in relation to the level of innovativeness of the European Union’s economies

63%
Roszko-Wójtowicz E., Białek J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2018
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issue vol. 22 no. 4
79-100
EN
The consumer price index (CPI) is a common measure of inflation. Similarly to the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), it is determined using the Laspeyres index, thus data on the consumption of the basket of goods do not have to be current. The Laspeyres index, using weights only from the base period, may not reflect changes in consumer preferences that occurred in the studied year. This is the reason for the formation of the so-called substitution bias in the measurement of inflation. The aim of the article is to assess the impact of the level of innovativeness of a given country’s economy on the occurrence of the substitution effect. The empirical part of the article is based on basic innovation indices, i.e. the SII, IOI, and GII. The assessment of the relationship between the level of innovativeness and the scale of the substitution effect was carried out based on the methods of multidimensional statistical analysis (including cluster analysis, the PROFIT method).
7
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Pomiar wzrostu i rozwoju gospodarczego w krajach UE – zastosowanie metod oceny grupowej

63%
Roszko-Wójtowicz E. M., Białek J.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2017
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vol. 3
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issue 329
EN
Voting methods allow to create a synthetic (global) rank of analyzed objects basing on ranks coming from independent experts. The aim of the paper is ordering of the EU member countries according to their level of economic development. The self‑developed rating takes as a starting point well‑known in the literature international indices. We consider ranks based on the following indices: i.e. Global Innovation Index, Global Creativity Index, Global Competitiveness Index, Summary Innovation Index, Innovation Output Indicator. Selected synthetic measures were classified into four groups: innovativeness, competitiveness, entrepreneurship and knowledge. Borda’s and Dodgson’s grouping methods are applied for a creation of a synthetic (global) rank. All calculations are made in the original computer program. Conducted analysis confirms that synthetic (global) rank is closer to assessment of the overall level of socio‑economic development rather that simple economic growth. Achieved results show strong correlation between synthetic (global) rank and selected international indices. Simultaneously, there is a significant discrepancy between synthetic (global) rank and countries or­dering according to GDP per capita.
PL
Metody oceny grupowej pozwalają na utworzenie syntetycznego (wypadkowego) rankingu analizowanych obiektów na bazie dostępnych już rankingów pochodzących od niezależnych ekspertów. Celem pracy jest uporządkowanie krajów członkowskich UE ze względu na poziom rozwoju gospodarczego na podstawie opracowanego rankingu wypadkowego, powstałego z popularnych w literaturze przedmiotu indeksów międzynarodowych. Zakwalifikowane do analizy mierniki syntetyczne podzielono na cztery grupy, tj. innowacyjność, konkurencyjność, wiedza, przedsiębiorczość. W pracy uwzględniono rankingi opracowane na bazie indeksów: Global Innovation Index, Global Creativity Index, Global Competitiveness Index, Summary Innovation Index, Innovation Output Indicator. Do analizy zastosowano metodę Bordy i Dodgsona. Obliczeń dokonano za pomocą autorskiego programu komputerowego. Przeprowadzona analiza wykazała, że zaproponowany ranking wypadkowy służy bardziej ocenie ogólnie pojętego rozwoju w wymiarze społeczno‑ekonomicznym niż jedynie wzrostu gospodarczego. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują na silną korelację między rankingami wypadkowymi a wybranymi indeksami sumarycznymi. Jednocześnie występują znaczne rozbieżności między rankingami wypadkowymi a porządkowaniem krajów zgodnie z wartościami PKB per capita.
8
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Application of the Divisia Index with Interconnected Factors in the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) fluctuation analysis

63%
Białek J., Pietrzyk R.
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2017
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vol. 4
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issue 330
PL
W artykule zaprezentowano metodę analizy ekonomicznej opartej na indeksie Divisia z powiązanymi czynnikami. Zweryfikowano możliwości aplikacyjne wymienionej metody do badania zmienności indeksu WIG. W analizie uwzględniono cztery główne zmienne wpływające na indeks warszawski: GDP, kurs PLN/EUR, indeks S&P500 oraz stopę bezrobocia, przy czym dokonano (w razie konieczności) transformacji zmiennych na stymulanty. Analizą objęto lata 2003–2014 i uwzględniono dane kwartalne, przy czym interwał czasowy podzielono na podokresy związane z hossą i bessą na giełdzie warszawskiej. Przyjęto również model czasu ciągłego z założeniem, że między kwartałami wartości zmiennych zmieniają się liniowo. Głównym wnioskiem z przeprowadzonego badania jest wyodrębnienie najbardziej wpływowych zmiennych objaśniających w postaci GDP i indeksu S&P500.
EN
This paper presents a method of economic factorial analysis based on the Divisia index extended to interconnected factors. We verify the applicability of the presented method to financial market research by examining fluctuations of the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG Index (WIG). We consider four main factors of WIG changes: the GDP growth, the PLN/EUR rate, the S&P500 and the unemployment rate. Due to computational reasons we apply the transformation that produces variables in the bigger the better form. We use quarterly data from the time interval between 2003 and 2014 divided into periods of bull and bear market. All considered variables are assumed to change linearly between quarters. The main conclusion is that during market prosperity, GDP and S&P500 changes exhibit the strongest influence on WIG changes.
9
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Assessing the effect of new data sources on the consumer price index: a deterministic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity

51%
Białek J., Panek T., Zwierzchowski J.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2022
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vol. 23
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issue 3
1-25
EN
One of the greatest challenges facing official statistics in the 21st century is the use of alternative sources of data about prices (scanned and scraped data) in the analysis of price dynamics, which also involves selecting the appropriate formula of the price index at the elementary group (5-digit) level. When consumer price indices of goods and services are constructed, a number of subjective decisions are made at different stages, e.g. regarding the choice of data sources and types of indices used for the purpose of estimation. All of these decisions can affect the bias of consumer price indices, i.e. the extent to which they contribute to the overall uncertainty about the resulting index values. By measuring how robust consumer price indices are, one can assess the impact that the decisions made at the different stages of index construction have on the index values. This assessment involves analysing uncertainty and sensitivity. The purpose of the study described in the article was to determine how much and in which direction the consumer price index changes when including scanner and scraped data in the analysis, in addition to the data on prices collected by enumerators. The impact of these new data sources was assessed by analysing uncertainty and sensitivity under the deterministic approach. To the best of the authors' knowledge, it is a novel application of robustness analysis to measure inflation using new data sources. The empirical study was based on data for February and March 2021, while scanner and scraped data about selected categories of food products were obtained from one retail chain operating hundreds of points of sale in Poland and selling products online. It was found that the choice of a data source has the most significant impact on the final value of the index at the elementary group level, while the choice of the aggregation formula used to consolidate different data sources is of secondary importance.
10
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Porównanie cen i wskaźników cen konsumpcyjnych: tradycyjna metoda uzyskiwania danych a źródła alternatywne

51%
Białek J., Dominiczak-Astin A., Turek D.
Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician
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2021
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vol. 66
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issue 9
32-69
EN
One of the major challenges official statistics is faced with in the 21st century is the use of alternative sources of price data in order to modernise consumer price statistics and, as a result, to improve the accuracy and reliability of inflation data. Data collecting based on the traditional method encountered numerous difficulties caused by COVID-19 (distance-keeping restrictions limiting price collectors’ fieldwork, closures of points of sale). As a consequence, the work on alternative data sources intensified. The article presents the results of an experimental study involving the use of prices collected by means of the traditional method (by price collectors), and scanner and web scraped data from one of the retail chains operating in Poland. The aim of the study was to investigate the occurrence of differences in prices and price indices of selected food products and to estimate them, using the traditional method and alternative data sources, i.e. scanner and web scraped data. An additional goal was set to identify sourcebased reasons for these differences. The empirical study covered the period of February and March 2021. The results based on data from different sources were compared using both graphical methods (histograms, box plots) and the calculation of elementary price indices according to the Dutot, Carli and Jevons formulas. The findings revealed certain, sometimes serious discrepancies in the distributions of prices obtained from various data sources, which suggests that the application of scanner and web scraped data may lead to the over- and understating of price indices obtained via the traditional method. The article also discusses the main methodological aspects of obtaining and applying data from alternative sources, and indicates the probable causes of the differences observed both in distributions of product prices and in monthly price indices calculated using data from various sources.
PL
Jednym z większych wyzwań stojących przed statystyką publiczną w XXI w. jest wykorzystanie alternatywnych źródeł danych o cenach w celu unowocześnienia statystyki cen konsumpcyjnych, a w rezultacie – zwiększenia dokładności i rzetelności danych o inflacji. Trudności w zbieraniu danych metodą tradycyjną spowodowane przez COVID-19 (obostrzenia dotyczące utrzymywania dystansu, które ograniczyły wyjścia ankieterów w teren, i zamykanie punktów sprzedaży) wpłynęły na zintensyfikowanie prac nad alternatywnymi źródłami danych. W artykule przedstawiono wyniki badania eksperymentalnego, w którym wykorzystano dane o cenach uzyskane metodą tradycyjną (przez ankieterów) oraz dane skanowane i skrapowane, pochodzące z sieci handlowej działającej w Polsce. Głównym celem badania było określenie występowania i oszacowanie wielkości różnic w poziomie cen i wartościach wskaźnika cen wybranych produktów spożywczych obliczonych metodą tradycyjną oraz z wykorzystaniem alternatywnych źródeł danych, czyli danych skanowanych i skrapowanych. Za dodatkowy cel postawiono sobie zidentyfikowanie przyczyn tych różnic w odniesieniu do specyfiki źródeł danych. Badaniem empirycznym objęto luty i marzec 2021 r. Wyniki otrzymane na podstawie danych z różnych źródeł porównano za pomocą metod graficznych (histogramy, wykresy pudełkowe) oraz wyznaczenia elementarnych indeksów według formuł Dutota, Carliego i Jevonsa. Wyniki wskazały na rozbieżności – niekiedy znaczne – w rozkładach cen uzyskanych z różnych źródeł danych, co skłania do wniosku, że zastosowanie danych skanowanych i skrapowanych może prowadzić do zawyżania lub zaniżania wskaźników cen uzyskanych metodą tradycyjną. W artykule omówiono również podstawowe aspekty metodologiczne dotyczące uzyskiwania i wykorzystywania danych ze źródeł alternatywnych oraz wskazano prawdopodobne przyczyny różnic, jakie zaobserwowano zarówno w rozkładach cen produktów, jak i w wartościach miesięcznego wskaźnika cen obliczonego przy wykorzystaniu danych z różnych źródeł.
11
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Zmiany w infrastrukturze transportowej w Polsce w ujęciu regionalnym.

26%
Białek J., Oleksiuk A.
Ekonomista
|
2011
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issue 4
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