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1

ESTIMATION OF A RELATIVE MORTALITY RISK BY CAUSE OF DEATH: A COMPARISON OF A TRADITIONAL METHOD AND THE EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACH AS APPLIED TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC, THE NETHERLANDS AND POLAND, 1994-1996

100%
Bijak J.
Studia Demograficzne
|
2005
|
issue 1(147)
3-29
EN
This paper is devoted to the issue of estimation of cause-specific risk of death. The traditional methodology is compared with one based on the empirical Bayes approach to statistical inference. The presentation of both methods and the evaluation of their theoretical properties is illustrated by an empirical example of how they serve to assess the respective situations in the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Poland from 1994-1996. The results confirm earlier observations (e.g. Clayton and Kaldor, 1987) that the empirical Bayes estimates of the relative risk of death are less extreme and less dispersed than the traditional epidemiological measures (i.e. Standardized Mortality Ratios). Improvement of accuracy of estimation in the Bayesian approach results from including additional prior information on the phenomena under study. It is argued that due to the aforementioned features, the Bayesian methodology is suitable for the study of small-sample populations, insofar as it provides less extreme and more precise estimates, than the traditional methods. This is an important issue in studies of regional mortality profiles, where insufficient sample size is often a serious problem. At the same time, the philosophy of Bayesian statistics, and particularly the subjective definition of probability, is a natural premise of analysis in the case of mortality research, where the samples of events under study are not repeatable. Therefore, although the Bayesian approach is more complex (both philosophically and procedurally), it constitutes a valuable alternative method of cause-of-death mortality risk evaluation, especially at the regional level, where small samples are considered.
2

THE EFFECT OF THE SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION ON THE LEVEL OF RETIREMENT PENSIONS IN POLAND (Wplyw zmiany systemowej na wysokosc swiadczen emerytalnych w Polsce)

63%
Wieckowska B., Bijak J.
Problemy Polityki Społecznej. Studia i Dyskusje
|
2009
|
vol. 12
183-201
EN
The authors start with the presentation of two retirement systems: before and after the reform. They show how pensions are calculated in both systems. The article examines changes in the replacement ratio resulting from the 1999 reform of the Polish pension system. Retirement benefits are estimated for eight hypothetical individuals, men and women, with different levels of earnings. As retirement benefits are the function of, among others, the future life expectancy, the paper illustrates the differences in estimates resulting from the application of two different life table perspectives: period and cohort. The deficit of the state-controlled pay-as-you-go component (the 'first pillar') of the pension system is estimated under the assumption that the calculation of benefits involves the current period life tables of the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
3

EVALUATION OF THE 2003-BASED POPULATION FORECAST OF THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF THE WARSAW AGGLOMERATION

63%
Kupiszewski M., Bijak J.
Studia Demograficzne
|
2006
|
issue 1(149)
68-81
EN
Demographic forecasts constitute an important information input for economic and social policies, as well as for a spatial organisation, which areas are crucial from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration. The paper aims at evaluating the recent population forecast of the Central Statistical Office for the period 2003-2030 in the context of the expected population changes of the capital city. The analysis concentrates on three elements of a forecast: the demographic data, the model of population dynamics, and assumptions on particular components of population change. Regarding data, it is argued that the current system of population statistics in Poland does not provide credible information on population stocks and structures, which causes a bias in the estimation of intensity of demographic events. As the main problem comes from the incompatibility of definitions, appropriate changes in legislation seem to be necessary. With respect to the model, the forecast should be prepared using a multi-regional model rather than the cohort-component method. The assumptions underestimate the role of migration (especially internal immigration to and international emigration from Warsaw) in the demographic development of the city. Hence, authors are of the opinion that the forecasted decline of the Warsaw population from the (underestimated) 1,688 thousand in 2002 to 1,532 thousand in 2030 is not realistic. It is argued that a population forecast for Warsaw should consider the specificity of the capital city and the whole agglomeration, which is an important migration destination for labour force from other regions of Poland. According to international standards, such a forecast should be made for the resident population. The 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office does not meet these criteria and thus can be hardly used for socio-economic policy purposes, spatial organisation, and development plans for the city and the Warsaw agglomeration.
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