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The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security

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Kozicki B., Zelkowski J., Mitkow S., Gontarczyk M.
Polish Political Science Yearbook
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2021
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issue 4 (50)
149-158
EN
The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.
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The Forecasting of Military Expenditure in Saudi Arabia in Terms of Military Security

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Kozicki B., Zelkowski J., Mitkow S., Gontarczyk M.
Polish Political Science Yearbook
|
2022
|
issue 2 (51)
61-68
EN
The study attempts to forecast military expenditure in Saudi Arabia for 2020. The research began with a comparative analysis of military expenditure in Saudi Arabia and Russia between 2000–2019. For this purpose, bar charts were used on which the calculated values of the dynamics indices with a fixed (2000) and movable (previous year) base of the considered primary data were outlined. The study was preceded by constructing a multiple regression model to evaluate the impact of the increase in military expenditure in Russia on Saudi Arabia. This model shows that as military spending in Russia increases by one million dollars, military spending in Saudi Arabia increases by $ 0.085 million. Then, data on the expenditure incurred by both analyzed countries in 2020, obtained from various internet sources, was outlined. Their analysis made it possible to select only qualitative methods in the form of expert opinions for the forecast. Saudi Arabia's military expenditure forecast was $ 57 500 million.
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