The theoretical foundations of the deterrence concept were developed during the Cold War and used by the U.S. and NATO to reduce the risk of military confrontation with the USSR. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the 11 September terrorist attacks, the U.S changed its deterrence policy. Although Russia’s aggressive policy forced NATO to reinstate deterrence, it will be supported by other forms of influence to limit the risk of confrontation in Europe.
The theoretical foundations of the deterrence concept were developed during the Cold War and used by the U.S. and NATO to reduce the risk of military confrontation with the USSR. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West transformed its strategy, but Russia’s aggressive policy forced NATO to reinstate deterrence policy. The aim of the article is to present the main aspects of deterrence theory, describe the nature of the conflict situation in post-Cold War Europe and suggest the force elements which NATO can credibly apply to limit the risk of confrontation with Russia.
To deal with challenges, NATO needs a strategic vision that translates into political and military credibility of the Article 5 guarantee but at the same time makes the Alliance more relevant for its members that do not feel threatened by Russia. There are a number of areas where NATO will have to overcome the lowest common denominator to deliver tangible results.