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EN
The main purpose of this article is to apply the newest forecast methods of financial crashes based on fractal analysis. The article includes short review of log-periodicity formulas and the research which shows the forecasting efficiency of these formulas referring to extremely different (in the size, development etc.) financial markets. Considerations refer to following problem: share price trajectories contain certain log-periodicity patterns which indicate the lack of share market efficiency. This problem is also induced by specific investor’s behavior. This behavior in combination with speculators activities are the main reasons of creating bubbles and financial crashes.
PL
W niniejszym artykule zaprezentowane zostanie zastosowanie najnowszej metody prognozy wystąpienia krachów giełdowych w oparciu o analizę fraktalną. Zawarte w nim wnioski mają na celu wykazanie, że trajektorie cen akcji zawierają pewne wzorce log-periodyczne, które potwierdzają występowanie słabej hipotezy rynku efektywnego. Owe zjawiska mogą również wynikać ze specyficznych zachowań inwestorów. Teoria log-periodyczności może być zastosowana do prognozowania zmian trendów. W pracy zostanie zbadana skuteczność predykcji na jej podstawie w odniesieniu do skrajnie różnych (pod względem rozwoju) rynków akcji.
PL
The aim of this article is to describe the differences between the investors ofdifferent nationalities that have participated in an international competition. Thefollowing hypothesis was tested: do investors of different nationalities differ fromone another in their style of investing? The conducted analysis confirmed thatinvestors of different nationalities have different understanding and sense of risk.
EN
The goal of the paper was to present a case study of the preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship in Poland, and especially in Wrocław, in order to help the managers of similar multiproject undertakings in the future to manage more effectively the risk and to reduce to uncertainty linked to such projects. In the moment the paper is written, the preparations are on their way, and we already have had some difficult, but valuable experience. Several problems occurred which were threatening the success of the projects conducted in the framework of the preparations, several problems can still be expected in the basis of the experience. The problems from the past had to be solved somehow, the problems to be expected have to be managed also - all this may constitute valuable advice for similar projects in the future. To sum up the main problems that have been identified so far in the projects conducted in the framework of the preparations for the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship, we have to emphasize the legal problems. The law as it was formulated in the legal acts before the beginning of the preparations would have made them nearly impossible to be accomplished. Thus, several modifications had to be introduced. Also later the human nature which makes some people use the "holes" in legal acts for their personal advantage blocked the projects realization for a considerable period of time, which in case of projects which simply have to be finished in time, because otherwise we face a real disaster, is a very serious problem. The disputes concerned above all the land ownership and the bidding results. The long legal procedures of considering the appeals, the expropriation etc. were a real nuisance. Also it happened that a construction company which won the bidding did not accomplish what it was supposed to, thus we faced the necessity of changing a company, which made it necessary to deal with a an "empty" period where a new company had to be selected and the construction site had to be handed over. We hope that the present paper will allow other project managers to learn from the lesson our country and city has been going through at the moment and that the painful learning process we have been experiencing will be of use to someone else.
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