The aim of this paper is to evaluate the symmetry of demand and supply shocks affecting Polish voivodeships and to assess the risk of asymmetric shocks in the future. The study employs the SVAR-based Blanchard and Quah (1989) decomposition as modified by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1992), and uses a new method of estimating quarterly GDP by voivodeships. The results point to a relatively high symmetry of shocks and a rather low risk of their occurrence. Shock asymmetry does not appear to be strongly related to differences in production structures, which is claimed in most theoretical approaches, including the Optimum Currency Areas Theory.
The article looks at the problem of regional differences in monetary policy in Poland. The author seeks to identify key differences in the effects of monetary policy between the country’s eastern and western macroregions. The empirical exercise uses the standard vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX), expanded to include variables describing economic activity in the two macroregions. The results point to varying responses to a monetary shock – chiefly diverse adjustments following the shock as well as different reactions to monetary policy impulses, the author argues. While in the western macroregion a tighter monetary policy triggers a strong reaction on the part of industrial production, Gajewski says, the eastern macroregion is mostly affected via the labor market.
PL
Celem artykułu jest identyfikacja ogólnych różnic w efektach polityki pieniężnej między wschodnim i zachodnim makroregionem w Polsce. Artykuł jest w istocie pierwszym spojrzeniem na problem regionalnego zróżnicowania efektów polityki pieniężnej w Polsce. W celu zachowania przejrzystości, a także spójności z analizami prowadzonymi dla Polski jako całości, badanie empiryczne przeprowadzone zostało w oparciu o standardowy model VARX, rozszerzony o zmienne charakteryzujące aktywność gospodarczą w obu makroregionach. Uzyskane wyniki potwierdzają odmienność odpowiedzi tych zmiennych. W szczególności wyniki sugerują nie tyle zróżnicowaną siłę reakcji na impuls polityki pieniężnej, ile odmienny charakter dostosowań po impulsie. W makroregionie zachodnim zacieśnienie polityki pieniężnej powoduje relatywnie silną reakcję produkcji przemysłowej, natomiast w makroregionie wschodnim dostosowania przebiegają raczej na rynku pracy. Uzyskane rezultaty mogą stanowić przyczynek do dalszych badań, a także do dyskusji nad ich implikacjami dla polityki gospodarczej.
The article aims to estimate the current level of public finance sustainability in the European Union, taking into account the starting fiscal position, the possibility of withdrawing fiscal impulses, the future costs of population aging, and possible financial market responses. The author achieves this objective by using an indicator method similar to that used by the European Commission. However, this method has been modified by diversifying projected GDP growth rates and public debt interest rates, Gajewski says. The assumption is that the interest rate may vary depending on the response of financial markets to the debt-to-GDP ratio. The author demonstrates that almost all EU countries have lost their medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Greece and Ireland appear to be the worst off among the analyzed countries, Gajewski says. Both these economies suffer from a high structural budget deficit and potentially high costs of population aging. Most other countries will also be forced to make strong fiscal adjustments to achieve primary surpluses far exceeding those in the period before the financial crisis. The calculations also show that Sweden, Estonia and Bulgaria boast the highest levels of public finance sustainability in the European Union, the author concludes.
The author analyzes the experience of fiscal reforms carried out in the European Union after the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. The treaty provides for what are called convergence criteria for countries aspiring to join the eurozone. After the treaty was signed a period of fiscal adjustments began in Europe. In the following years, individual countries pursued different strategies and attained different results in the process. The article aspires to be a source of information for those seeking to develop an optimal reform strategy for Poland-now that the Polish government has clearly stated that Poland should become part of the euro zone in the future. Using statistical data, Gajewski discusses how the convergence criteria adopted in the Maastricht Treaty (reference values for the deficit and public debt) influence fiscal policy in terms of the effectiveness of the strategy for adjusting government revenue and expenditure. It turns out that the fiscal convergence criterion could increase the pro-cyclical aspect of fiscal policy in the period directly preceding the launch of the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union and in the first few years of the system’s functioning, Gajewski says. His research confirms earlier findings that effectively bringing down the deficit below the reference level requires focusing one’s efforts on the expenditure rather than revenue side of the budget. This may be because limiting expenditure calls for more comprehensive reforms covering structural changes and increased effectiveness of available resources. According to Gajewski, countries that have met the fiscal criterion by limiting expenditure generally took longer to meet this criterion and had a higher budget balance on average, during the period of the eurozone’s functioning, than countries that focused their strategies on the revenue side of the budget and stopgap measures. The author concludesthat the adopted strategy for public finance consolidation had far-reaching consequences for the competitiveness of individual countries and may have been one of the main causes behind the crisis, which hit the eurozone in 2008.
The author analyses the relationship between regional disparities and economic efficiency. He also examines the efficiency of regional policy tools in the context of regional disproportions and economic efficiency. In the first part of the paper, the author discusses the main areas of controversy concerned with the regional distribution of business activity and its influence on economic growth. Then, using a graphic model to present the theory of endogenous growth and the New Economic Geography-and additionally considering social capital-Gajewski analyzes the economic effects of interregional transfers, subsidies for enterprises, investment in transport infrastructure and innovation policy. The author concludes that regional policy measures designed to support the regional diffusion of innovation and reduce its costs are the most effective instrument of regional policy, from the perspective of economic efficiency and the need to level out regional differences. Subsidies to enterprises seem to be the least beneficial, if not harmful, regional policy tool, Gajewski says. His research findings indicate that the use of various other regional policy instruments leads to an “equity-efficiency tradeoff,” or a conflict between economic and social objectives.
The paper compares the most closely watched sentiment indicators with respect to their ability to nowcast quarterly GDP dynamics in the Euro Area and its biggest economies. We analyse cross-correlations and out-of-sample forecast errors generated from equations estimated by rolling regressions in fixed-length window. The results show that models employing PMI Composite perform best in the cases of the Euro Area, Germany, France and Italy, whilst Spanish GDP dynamics is best nowcasted using ESI-based models. PMI-based models generate the most accurate nowcasts at the beginning of the quarter, as well as during periods of high volatility of GDP growth rates
PL
W artykule porównane zostały zdolności najpilniej obserwowanych wskaźników obrazujących nastroje gospodarcze do bieżącego prognozowania kwartalnej dynamiki PKB w strefie euro i jej największych państwach członkowskich. Analizowane są korelacje krzyżowe oraz błędy prognoz poza próbę, wygenerowane z równań szacowanych w oparciu o regresję kroczącą w oknie stałej długości. Wyniki wskazują, że modele wykorzystujące wskaźnik PMI Composite dają na ogół najlepsze wyniki w strefie euro, Niemczech, Francji i Włoszech, podczas gdy bieżąca dynamika hiszpańskiego PKB jest najprecyzyjniej prognozowana przez modele oparte na wskaźniku ESI. Modele oparte na PMI generują relatywnie najlepsze prognozy na początku kwartału, a także w okresach wysokiej zmienności stóp wzrostu PKB.
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