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Próba konstrukcji i modelowania wskaźnika koniunktury dla wybranych województw

100%
Kuszewski T.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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1997
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vol. 51
311-322
EN
The study presents the concept of a composite business indicator for Poland’s regions and an economic estimation of such an indicator for nine administrative regions (voivodeships), indl. an experimental forecast for the 3rd quarter of 1995.
2

FROM CRISP OPTIMIZATION TO FUZZY APPROACH AND MACHINE LEARNING - OPERATIONS RESEARCH EVOLUTION

63%
Wojewnik P., Kuszewski T.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
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2010
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issue 4 (48)
81-98
EN
In this paper we try to outline the mainstreams of operations research and to classify them as completed and underway in methods and applications. In particular, we consider the methods of decision support with subjective criteria evaluation in vaguely described situations. The aim of the paper is to articulate the current trends and challenges in operations research.
3
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EFEKTY SKALI PRODUKCJI ROLNICZEJ W REGIONACH FADN DLA POLSKI W LATACH 2004-2011

63%
Kuszewski T., Sielska A.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2015
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vol. 16
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issue 3
237-247
PL
Celem pracy jest zbadanie zmian efektów skali w regionach FADN w Polsce w latach 2004-2011. Wnioskowanie oparte jest na analizie profili technologicznych, które dla wyszczególnionych grup gospodarstw rolnych dane są zestawem oszacowanych parametrów funkcji CES w postaci zagnieżdżonej dla wyróżnionych czynników produkcji takich jak: kapitał, praca, ziemia. Dane pochodzą z bazy Farm Accountancy Data Network. Gospodarstwa rolne są grupowane również według regionów i przewa-żającego rodzaju działalności. Z badania wynika, że profile technologiczne są zmienne w czasie, z odmienną dla wyróżnionych grup producentów rolnych skłonnością do zmian profilu. Zaobserwowano tendencję do wyboru profili minimalizujących rolę ziemi jako czynnika produkcji.
EN
The purpose of this paper is to assess returns to scale in Polish FADN regions in the period 2004-2011. Our analysis is based on technological profiles which for each group of agricultural producers are given by parameters of three factor (capital, labour, agricultural area) nested CES functions. The data are obtained from the Farm Accountancy Data Network database. Farms are classified on the basis of specialization and region. The results show that technological profiles change in time, and the tendency to change the profile is different in analyzed groups. We observed the tendency to choose such profiles that minimize the agricultural area.
4

Uzyteczna sztuka rankingow spoleczno-ekonomicznych

63%
Kuszewski T., Sielska A.
Contemporary Economics
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2010
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issue 1(13)
143-162
EN
The purpose of the paper is to identify advantages and disadvantages of various methods of constructing rankings. The subject of our study is important due to the international debate on development and welfare measurement methods and ways of comparing results obtained for different countries. Because GDP per capita does not allow sufficient assessment, countries are compared on the basis of many criteria and results are usually presented in form of rankings. We discuss different outranking methods originating from multidimensional statistical analysis and multicriteria optimization and compare them taking into consideration the effect of each method and each set of criteria on the final result. Our remarks are illustrated by rankings of development and economic performance built for European Union countries. Our observations and results can be regarded also as an opinion in the discussion on the report of the International Commission onMeasurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress chaired by J.E. Stiglitz and A. Sen.
5

Prognozy kombinowane wskaznikow makroekonomicznych z uzyciem danych z testow koniunktury

51%
Bialowolski P., Kuszewski T., Witkowski B.
Contemporary Economics
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2010
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issue 4(16)
41-58
EN
Current economic crisis shed dark light on the possibilities of creating a valuable and reliable short and medium term forecasts with the use of the most commonly applied econometric models in the structural or autoregressive form (SVAR, VAR), but also models of the general equilibrium (CGE, DSGE). The models failed to forecast especially at the verge of the crisis when the information on upcoming peak in the business cycle would be of the highest value. This situation was a stimulus to undertake research oriented at creating a family of models that would react faster and with higher precision to dynamic changes in the economic environment. As a result it is expected that a family of models will be specified, identified and estimated. They should provide leading and more accurate information on basic macroeconomic variables - GDP, unemployment and inflation. Each of the specifications will be subject to two objectives: (1) the minimum ex-ante forecast error and (2) immediate and reliable accessibility of data. The database applied in the procedure will comprise of time series from the Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED) on sentiment in manufacturing industry, households, trade and construction. The series on economic activity in Poland cover the period of 1995-2009.
6
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Bayesowskie uśrednianie klasycznych oszacowań w prognozowaniu wskaźników makroekonomicznych z użyciem danych z testów koniunktury

51%
Białowolski P., Kuszewski T., Witkowski B.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
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2013
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vol. 91: Badania koniunktury - zwierciadło gospodarki. Część II
121-144
PL
W niniejszej pracy przedstawiono kolejną wersję modelu dla prognozowania podstawowych wskaźników makroekonomicznych z wykorzystaniem danych z testów koniunktury. W pracach Białowolskiego, Kuszewskiego i Witkowskiego (2010a, 2010b, 2011, 2012a, 2012b) rozwijano metodykę budowy modeli dla prognozowania tempa zmian produktu krajowego brutto, stopy bezrobocia i wskaźnika cen towarów konsumpcyjnych. W zbiorze regresorów tych modeli, oprócz opóźnionych w czasie zmiennych endogenicznych, uwzględnia się wyłącznie wyniki różnych testów koniunktury. Badanie dotyczy specyfikacji modelu prognostycznego metodą bayesowskiego uśredniania klasycznych oszacowań (Bayesian averaging of classical estimates, BACE). Przyjęte rozwiązanie umożliwia automatyzację proces doboru postaci modelu. W kolejnym etapie postępowania jest rozważany wpływ sezonowości deterministycznej i stochastycznej szeregów czasowych na wynik procesu prognozowania. Zaproponowano intuicyjną procedurę uwzględniania obu rodzajów sezonowości w procesie prognozowania. Po zakończeniu procesu estymacji i doboru modeli weryfikowano ich możliwości prognostyczne.
EN
This paper presents another version of model designed to forecast main macroeconomic indicators with the use of economic survey data. In previous papers (Białowolski, Kuszewski, Witkowski, 2010a, 2010b, 2011, 2012a, 2012b) methods for developing models used for forecasting GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and CPI were proposed. The set of regressors in those models included only lagged dependent variables and indices based on various survey data. In this paper the specification of the forecasting model is selected with the use of Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE). This algorithm enables an automatic process of selection of functional form of the model. Next the influence of deterministic and stochastic seasonality in time series on forecasting process is concerned. An intuitive procedure of applying and selecting among both types of seasonality in the forecasting process is discussed. Afterwards their forecasting capabilities are considered.
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