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  1. 2 Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)

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  1. 1 2008

  2. 1 2007

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  1. 2 Erdos T.

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1

Exchange-rate policy and inflation targeting in Hungary

100%
Erdos T.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2007
|
vol. 54
|
issue 10
853-875
EN
The inflation targeting system applied in Hungary since 2001 relies on monetary policy to ensure that the consumer price level remains stable in the medium and long term, or at most rises very slowly, by which a rise of approximately 2 per cent a year is to be understood. Alternatively, if the monetary authority has to reckon with existing rapid inflation, the aim must be a considerable reduction in the inflation rate year by year. If monetary policy has already succeeded in bringing down inflation, the low rate must be permanently secured. However, it is not certain that preference in monetary policy should go to inflation targeting under all circumstances. Such a policy has a favorable effect only if two substantial preconditions apply: public finances are near equilibrium and nominal wages regularly adjusted to the GDP growth rate. If these preconditions are lacking, inflation targeting may have harmful effects too: currency overvaluation, excess of domestic utilization over GNP, increases in internal and external debt, decreasing rates of savings and investment, and lower economic growth potential. The author examines how to develop economic and within that monetary policy so that inflation targeting may be efficiently applied.
2

Critique of a critique. A response to Mihály András Kovács's article

100%
Erdos T.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2008
|
vol. 55
|
issue 3
233-242
EN
The author examines and takes issue with the arguments and contentions found in Mihály András Kovács's polemic. For it does not follow from the article Kovács criticizes that its author opposes the independence of the bank of issue. He did not state that economic growth might have been faster because of faster inflation or that the rate of inflation per se would fall without budgetary and monetary restriction. He shows that the costs of the inflationary target are significant under the conditions of an expansive income and budgetary policy and consequent political strife. He emphasizes the way that the real revaluation of currencies may initiate processes with radically different effects in different countries, and so that the same degree of revaluation may have very different effects on each.
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