The contemporary security environment indicates non-conventional, asymmetric and hybrid security threats as potentially the most accurate threats to global and regional security. Conflict risks in the regional frame strongly depend on strategically aimed non-military, but hybrid acts. The great powers mostly attempt to achieve their own interests’ goals in fulfi llment of self-orientated strategic dominance. The Balkan region is a crossroads of strongly exposed interest spheres of regional as well as global powers. The article aims to determine areas of infl uence in the Balkan States that could become targets of predominantly non-military but hybrid infl uences. Multi-Value Quality Comparative Analyses (mvQCA) of state power, stability and resilience capacities were used in the research. The methodology used was based on the approach with multi-valued sets of variables and conditions. A theoretical framework was based on contemporary theories of state power and hybrid warfare concept. Used databases were brought together from generated open source databases of approved international academic or think-tank organisations. Based on a hypothesis regarding hybrid security threats, a theoretical framework of understanding of power and analysing a wide spectra of databases, the article aims to contribute a rational and objective understanding of two main indicators: the potential to become a target and the resilience capacities of countries in the face of hybrid security threats. Its findings indicate that most countries in the Balkan region are potentially under unarmed influences and have very low resilience capabilities against possible hybrid infl uences. The conclusions reached help to clarify that the Balkan States are vulnerable to hybrid security threats.
Globalisation is a phenomenon which influences every aspect of contemporary life. Neo- liberal ideas lead to the multifunctional interdependence of geopolitics, the political economy, international relations, security, and defence issues. In the globalised world, many issues can be raised: Where are the roots of modern conflict? Who are the stakeholders in international relations? What are the dominant forms of contemporary conflicts? Do the forms of collective security fulfill the legitimacy of objectivity? What are the new challenges for modern defence science? Through the multidisciplinary approach, based on academic literature, as well scholars research papers, this work aims to contribute to the clarifying a rational approach to modern defence science in the contemporary, global security environment.
National security determines the degree to which endangering national interests that sublimate national values is absent. With a review of the genesis and framework of the modern interpretation of national security, the paper discusses its approaches to endangerment. A retrospective of the ideas of endangerment in the paradigm of the changed physiognomy of contemporary conflicts and dynamic geopolitical movements creates the need for an innovative approach and prediction in national security strategic assessments. The paper provides an overview of the internal and external political aspects of national security and a framework for the actions of prominent entities according to the perceived foreign policy interests of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security. By analysing common and conflicting interests of Serbia and forces that have geopolitical interests in the Western Balkans, it is possible to establish the most objective framework for predicting the trend of relationship development and the vector of influence. The paper analyses Serbia’s interactions with Russia, the United States, and the EU. The findings point to a complex situation regarding Serbia’s national security, where Russia seeks to maintain its strong soft power presence, the United States wants close cooperation and insistence on recognising Kosovo’s independence, and the EU does not vigorously stimulate or promote Serbia’s European integration. In that way, a concrete contribution is made to the developing of strategic assessments of possible trends of importance for the Republic of Serbia’s security, as well as to the achievement of declared national goals.
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