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PL
Artykuł poświecony jest zagadnieniu możliwości oddziaływania na poziom cen mleka surowego poprzez ceny kluczowych artykułów pochodnych, będących powszechnym przedmiotem handlu międzynarodowego. W toku rozważań ustalono, że nie ceny mleka kształtują ceny podstawowych artykułów pochodnych takich jak ser twardy cheddar, odtłuszczone mleko w proszku i masło w blokach, lecz ceny tych produktów kształtują cenę mleka surowego. Może to mięć znaczenie w oddziaływaniu na poziom cen skupu mleka w Unii Europejskiej po zniesieniu kwot mlecznych.
EN
The paper presents the concept of econometric models for predicting the level of prices of raw milk in New Zealand, based on the prices of SMP, butter and cheddar cheese, as the products strongly correlated with the prices of raw milk. The article also states that the prices of basic products which are a commodity in international exchanges influence on the prices of raw milk and not vice versa.
EN
In this article were considered the probable scenarios of changes on the EU milk market after 2008 and their financial and organisational effects. Also presented were some of the more important elements of the milk market up to the moment of the adoption of decisions included in the Agenda 2000. The organisation of the milk market in the European Union after 2008 will require relevant decisions which are certain to have financial effects for the EU budget. It cannot be excluded that some favourable circumstances will arise that will help limit the budget expenditure and reform the Common Agricultural Policy also in respect of the milk market. However, it is probable that because of the economic considerations the European Commission will put the emphasis on a solution that is likely to generate less serious financial effects, i.e. on a two-range milk quota system or on the preservation of the status quo of Agenda 2000 after 2008
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