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Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states

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Darvas Z., Szapary G.

Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)

2004

vol. 51

issue 5

415-448

The study analyses the degree of similarity in the business cycles of the EMU members and eight new Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU members, for which EMU accession will be the next stage of integration. The coincidence of cycles is usually regarded as one of the most important optimal currency area properties. While the business cycles of Hungary, Poland and Slovenia greatly approximate to those of the EMU countries in GDP, industrial production and exports, the same cannot be said of consumption or services. The other CEE countries show little or no coincidence in their cycles. The EMU countries have managed to achieve increasing harmonization of their cycles, which could support the endogeneity of optimum currency areas.

Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates

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Darvas Z., Schepp Z.

Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)

2007

vol. 54

issue 6

501-528

This paper studies whether models that assume long-maturity forward exchange rates are stationary (which proved in earlier studies to provide superior forecasting ability when applied to exchange rates of major currencies) are capable of forecasting the Euro exchange rates of three Central-East European currencies (the Czech koruna, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty). The results for the three currencies differ from each other and are generally much worse than those obtained earlier for major currencies. These unfavourable results are attributed to the consequences of managed exchange-rate systems, to the short time series available, to uncertainties related to future Euro-zone entry, to the existence of a foreign exchange and term premium, and to the Balassa–Samuelson effect.

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2 Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)

1 2007

1 2004

2 Darvas Z.

1 Schepp Z.

1 Szapary G.

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Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states

Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates