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EN
The paper aims at empirical evaluation of the impact of the market cycle on the performance of stock recommendations issued for the banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the period 2000–2016. The research methods involved analyses of correlation and regression. The accuracy of each recommendation was assessed over 180 days since the date of its issuance. The examined sample covered 2801 recommendations and 347 121 observations of stock prices for 14 listed banks. The results of the research indicate that market cycle exerts impact on both directions and accuracy of analysts’ recommendations. The recommendations issued in the examined period were generally counteracting the extreme market sentiments, serving for stabilisation of banks’ stock prices around the intrinsic values estimated by analysts. The accuracy of target prices increased in the periods of bull market, and decreased in the periods of downturns.
PL
Celem artykułu jest weryfikacja empiryczna wpływu wahań koniunkturalnych na trafność rekomendacji wydawanych przez analityków giełdowych dla akcji banków notowanych na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie w okresie 2000–2016. Badanie przeprowadzono metodami analizy korelacji i regresji. Dokładność każdej rekomendacji była oceniana w horyzoncie 180 dni od daty jej wydania. Badana próba objęła 2801 rekomendacji oraz 347 121 obserwacji kursów akcji dla 14 banków. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, że wahania koniunkturalne wywierają wpływ zarówno na kierunki, jak i dokładność rekomendacji analityków. Rekomendacje wydawane w analizowanym okresie były zazwyczaj formułowane przeciwnie do skrajnych trendów rynkowych, służąc stabilizowaniu kursów akcji banków wokół szacowanych przez analityków wartości wewnętrznych. Dokładność rekomendacji wzrastała na ogół w okresach dominacji pozytywnych nastrojów, a obniżała się w okresach bessy.
PL
The paper aims at empirical evaluation of the impact of household debt on the dynamics of consumption spending since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The research employed linear regression analysis of the rate of growth of household spending against the rate of growth of disposable income, the level of indebtedness and long-term interest rates in the OECD member states between 2008-2014. The results obtained indicate that household indebtedness was one of the factors influencing the dynamics of consumption demand and thus the processes of economic growth in the OECD states after the beginning of the global financial crisis. Variations in the relation of total debt to net disposable income and in the level of long-term interest rates were both negatively related to the changes in consumption spending. This impact turned out to be markedly stronger when total household debt of a given country was exceeding 85% of GDP, which is consistent with the results of previous investigations on the in&uence of the indebtedness of household sector on the dynamics of economic growth
PL
The paper compares the relevance of earnings and cash flows for market valuein the Polish banking sector. The study used linear regression analysis based onthe data from separate and consolidated financial statements of 18 domesticallybasedcommercial banks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange over the period1998–2013. The results indicate that net earnings reported by the examined banksare more value-relevant than both net cash flows and cash flows to equity.
EN
The consequences of the global financial crisis have significantly affected the situation of the banking sector all over the world. Clearly distinguished subsectors of commercial and cooperative banks in the Polish banking sector have responded to these circumstances in different ways, due to the specificity of the banking activities conducted by them. The paper compares and assesses the impact of the global financial crisis on the commercial and cooperative banks subsectors in Poland in the key aspects of their economic position. In order to demonstrate a broader context of the discussed phenomena, the analysis covered the period from 2003 to 2012. The obtained empirical results confirm a diverse impact of the crisis on the position of each subsector. The commercial banks, being more exposed to the risks associated with the situation in the global financial markets, were affected by the first stage of the crisis earlier and to much higher extent than the cooperative banks. As the trust between banks gradually eroded and the transmission of adverse phenomena to the real sector of the economy proceeded, the crisis has affected also the cooperative banks subsector.
EN
The paper attempts to quantify the impact of inequalities in regional economic development on disparities in spatial distribution of cashless payment infrastructure in Poland at the voivodeship (NUTS 2 region) level. Our findings reveal that general patterns of spatial distribution of GDP per person and the composite index of cashless payment infrastructure development are similar. The richest regions – mazowieckie voivodeship and the regions of Western Poland have the most developed infrastructure, while the poorer eastern voivodeships are clearly lagging behind. The obtained results indicate that the impact of economic development on spatial distribution of cashless payment infrastructure is statistically significant.
PL
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie ewolucji innowacyjnych rozwiązań w bankowości mobilnej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem kwestii bezpieczeństwa tego kanału dostępu do usług bankowych. Rozważania oparto na krajowych i zagranicznych raportach poświęconych problematyce rynku bankowości mobilnej. Przeprowadzone analizy wskazują, że wiązka innowacji produktowych i procesowych stanowiąca współczesną bankowość mobilną ma potencjał, aby na zawsze zmienić relacje pomiędzy bankami a klientami. Zmiany te dotyczą zarówno likwidacji czasowych i przestrzennych ograniczeń operacji bankowych, jak i wykorzystania przez banki osobistego charakteru urządzeń przenośnych do realizacji strategii marketingowych. Dzięki tym rozwiązaniom bankowość mobilna ma możliwość istotnego zmniejszenia dystansu dzielącego ją od innych kanałów dostępu do usług bankowych. Ryzyko wynikające z licznych zagrożeń, na jakie narażeni są użytkownicy bankowości mobilnej, może być natomiast skutecznie ograniczane dzięki stosowanym współcześnie rozwiązaniom technicznym oraz przestrzeganiu elementarnych zasad bezpieczeństwa.
XX
The aim of the paper is to present the evolution of innovations in mobile banking with a particular regard to the issue of security of this channel of access to banking services. The discussion was based on domestic and foreign reports on mobile banking market. The conducted analyses indicate that cluster of innovations forming the modern mobile banking has a potential to change the relations between banks and their clients forever. These changes regard not only elimination of time and space barriers of banking operations, but also the use of personal character of mobile devices for realisation of banks’ marketing strategies. Though these solutions mobile banking has an ability to decrease significantly its distance from the other channels of access to banking services. The risk resulting from numerous threats to the users of mobile banking can be effectively mitigated by modern technical solutions and obeying the elementary security rules.
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