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The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

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Gomułka S.

Central European Economic Journal

2017

vol. 2

issue 49

This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main developments of the global economy in the 20th century. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Considering this theory, it is argued that the global economy rate of growth of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but decline significantly in the second half. This paper offers forecasts for the average growth rates during this century, and the levels by its end, of the per capita GDP for the technology frontier area (TFA) of the world, and for the countries outside the TFA. According to these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the 19th and 20th centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence between the TFA and the other countries during the 21st century.

„Postheroická“ společnost a „Nové války“

88%

Loewenstein B.

Český časopis historický (The Czech Historical Review)

2016

vol. 114

issue 4

1021-1026

This paper is a consideration of German political scientist and historian Herfried Münckler’s book, ‘Kriegssplitter. Die Evolution der Gewalt im 20. und 21. Jahrhundert’ (Berlin 2016). It discusses whether – despite a certain fragmentation of the concept – this could represent a new theoretical guidebook on war for politicians, historians and perhaps even soldiers. We can argue that particular passages in the book looked at can only be understood from their historic context, but analyses are also markedly important as a political guide in the present day

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1 Central European Economic Journal

1 Český časopis historický (The Czech Historical Review)

1 Gomułka S.

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1 2016

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The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

„Postheroická“ společnost a „Nové války“