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The Utility of Zero-Inflated Models in the Estimation of the Number of Accidents in the Automobile Insurance Industry

100%
Ordaz J. A., del Carmen Melgar M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2010
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vol. 5
|
issue 2
EN
The main purpose of the present paper is to provide an econometric model which estimates the number of automobile accidents that policyholders declare to their insurance companies, pointing out those variables that are significant in this process. Our empirical analysis is based on the data supplied by a private insurance company that operates in Spain, and on the zero-inflated count data models as methodology. We find a positive association between the levels of coverage and the accident rates, suggesting the existence of problems related to adverse selection and moral hazard. This result is one of the most important conclusions of our work and confirms the theoretical aspects pointed up by other empirical studies in the literature. Additionally, estimating the number of policyholders that suffered any accident but not declared, and how many these non-declared accidents are, could be very useful information for insurers to evaluate their risk planning. Our model attempts to reach this target as well.
2

Road Safety in Selected Cities — Reflections, Conclusions

88%
Tabaczniuk T.
Internal Security
|
2014
|
vol. 6(1)
177-192
EN
The opening of borders resulted in an increase in imports of vehicles. However, with the increase in the material standardof living — there was also an increase in threats, i.e. the number of road accidents and related casualties. It had to be redefined,changing legal standards in this area and the implementation of newer and newer techniques and preventive measures affectingroad safety. In the beginning it was assumed that the main cause of accidents is speeding vehicles. Thus, in the streets appearedunmarked vehicles, on the roadside — masts of speed cameras. Initially, all the preventive measures in this area belongedto the Police, other services and guards, such as the Road Transport Inspection, or city/municipal guards, have grown with powersover time. This paper is a continuation of the previous research of the author related to road safety and the impact of various typesof technical means used to improve the existing state. The article presents the main types of hazards occurring in traffic, i.e factorsof road vehicles including their traits, alcohol and drugs and their impact on traffic safety. Moreover, a part of the discussionis devoted to the development of the speed camera system in Poland. The essential part of the paper is the attempt to determinethe real impact of the use of speed cameras by municipal guards in selected cities/counties on the number of road accidents.The studies have been conducted in urban areas / districts of Swidnica and Wałbrzych.
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