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Thermal seasons in Warsaw during the period 1961-2013

100%

Majewski G., Przewoźniczuk W.

Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development

2014

vol. 18

issue 4

41-46

This study determines the approximate duration of the thermal seasons in Warsaw, and investigates their long-term variability. The measurement data come from the Ursynów meteorological station at the Warsaw University of Life Sciences (WULS) (λE 21°02’52’’, φN 52°09’38’’, 102.5 m a.s.l.), situated in the south of Warsaw, and comprise mean diurnal air temperatures for the years 1961-2013. In order to identify thermal seasons, the method of five-day rolling averages was applied, which revealed a substantial year-by-year variability. The achieved results were close to those found by other methods for stations situated within the same climatic region. Over the analysed period, winters and springs have become shorter, whereas the other two seasons have become longer. Nevertheless, the positive trend was only statistically significant for thermal summers. The increasing length of the thermal summer in Warsaw Ursynów may be due to the influence of urban heat islands in built-up areas.

Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010

75%

Boryczka J., Stopa-Boryczka M., Kossowska-Cezak U., Wawer J.

Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development

2012

vol. 16

issue 2

16-22

The air temperatures recorded at Warsaw-Okęcie in 1951-2010 were compared with forecasts for the period 1980-2010 and 1991-2010, i.e. 31 and 20 years ahead. Accurate predictions of air temperatures in Warsaw in 1980-2010 were calculated using the cycles identified by applying the sinusoidal regression method to a series of monitoring results obtained in Warsaw between 1779 and 1979. The high accuracy of these forecasts is the result of a similar progression of measured and forecast values over a number of years. The prediction of climate change in the Northern Hemisphere for example, caused by interference of long solar radiation cycles as well as variations in the concentrations of the δ18O oxygen isotope in the Arctic ice cores, requires a larger series of data points.

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2 Miscellanea Geographica. Regional Studies on Development

1 Boryczka J.

1 Kossowska-Cezak U.

1 Majewski G.

1 Przewoźniczuk W.

1 Stopa-Boryczka M.

1 Wawer J.

1 2014

1 2012

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Thermal seasons in Warsaw during the period 1961-2013

Verification of forecasts of periodic changes in the climate of Warsaw in the period 1779-2010