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EN
In this article, a new reciprocal Rayleigh extension called the Xgamma reciprocal Rayleigh model is defined and studied. The relevant statistical properties are derived, and the useful results related to the convexity and concavity are addressed. We discussed the estimation of the parameters using different estimation methods such as the maximum likelihood estimation method, the ordinary least squares estimation method, the weighted least squares estimation method, the Cramer-Von-Mises estimation method, and the bootstrapping method. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performances of the proposed estimation methods are investigated through a simulation study. Many bivariate and multivariate type model have also been derived based on Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula, the Clayton copula, Renyi's entropy copula and the Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula. A modified Nikulin-Rao-Robson test for right-censored validation is applied to a censored real data set.
PL
W artykule rozważany jest problem wyboru optymalnej metody szacowania wartości zagrożonej. Na przykładzie portfela narażonego na ryzyko zmiany kursów USD/PLN i EUR/PLN pokazane jest, że średni poziom VaR w okresie testowym lub średnia z kwadratów odchyleń od rzeczywistych zysków i strat portfela w tym okresie mogą być użyte jako dodatkowe kryterium wyboru metody estymacji VaR. W badaniu porównywane były następujące metody estymacji VaR: metoda kowariancji, metoda historyczna oraz metody symulacyjne z wykorzystaniem kopuli Claytona, Franka i Ali-Mikhail-Haqa. Przy tym w metodach symulacyjnych w części przypadków użyto estymacji metodą minimalnej odległości Cramera von Mises równolegle z typowym sposobem estymacji parametru kopuli, tj. metodą największej wiarygodności.
EN
In the paper we investigate the problem of the optimal choice of the method for VaR estimation. On the basis of the portfolio exposed to the risk of fluctuations for USD/PLN and EUR/PLN fixed rates it is shown that the mean level of VaR or the mean squared error in the test period can be used as an additional criterion for choice of method for VaR estimation. The following VaR estimation methods were compared in the study: the covariance method, the historical method and the simulation methods based on the Clayton copula, the Frank copula and the Ali-Mikhail-Haq copula. Additionally, for the simulation methods in some cases the author uses the minimum distance estimation with Cramer von Mises distance function parallel to the standard way of the copula parameter estimation i.e. maximum likelihood estimation.
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