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The Capacity to Forecast Enterprise Insolvency on the Polish Market Using the Precursory Altman Z-Score Model (1968)

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Antonowicz P., Antonowicz A.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2022
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vol. 56
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issue 5
7-26
EN
Theoretical background: Many years have passed since the publication of the first multidimensional model (Z-score) of early bankruptcy warning by E.I. Altman in 1968. New models have since emerged in different countries. In this research stream, the share of econometric modelling based on the assumptions of discriminant analysis, i.e. MDA - Multiple Discriminant Analysis - one of the multidimensional classiifcation methods categorised as empirical-induction methods, plays a particularly important role. Purpose of the article: The article assesses the capacity of the Altman Z-Score to forecast (1 year ahead) insolvency of enterprises on the Polish market.
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Discriminatory Power of the Altman Z-Score Model

100%
Kateřina M.
Littera Scripta
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2013
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vol. 1
95-106
EN
This article aims to assess the discriminatory power of one of the most famous and most discussed corporate predictive models, the Altman ZScore. This model ranks among the bankruptcy models, whose main purpose is to detect the impending bankruptcy in good time. The research focuses on three main areas of assessing the discriminatory power of the model. The first part deals with the overall discriminatory power of the model; the second part is aimed at quantifying the impact of individual variables on misclassification of enterprises in bankruptcy. The last part quantifies the discriminatory power of individual variables of the model. The results are compared with the findings of the author of the model. The empirical research is based on the accounting data of Czech companies from the manufacturing industry. Both thriving and bankrupt companies are included in the research.
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