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Insecurity in the Middle East: Why Do the Reformist Movements Constantly Fail? Towards a New Conceptual Framework

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Bagheri Dolatabadi A., Shafie Seifabadi M.

Przegląd Strategiczny

2022

issue 15

169-186

W ciągu ostatnich trzech dekad kraje Bliskiego Wschodu często były świadkami powszechnych protestów przeciwko reżimom autorytarnym. Pytanie brzmi, dlaczego te protesty nigdy nie przynoszą pożądanego rezultatu? Niezależnie od roli, jaką odgrywają podmioty zagraniczne w utrwalaniu autorytarnych reżimów na Bliskim Wschodzie, wydaje się, że tym, co powoduje, że protesty nie są wszechobecne, a infrastruktury polityczne nie upadają, jest fakt, że protesty nie zostały poparte przez większość narodu. W niniejszym artykule dowodzimy, że taki brak poparcia związany jest z fundamentalną przyczyną, którą nazwaliśmy cyklem strachu. Cykl ten obejmuje strach mas przed reżimem, strach przed porażką ruchu i jej strasznymi konsekwencjami oraz strach przed systemem politycznym, który ma dojść do władzy po obaleniu urzędującego rządu. Ważną rolę w tworzeniu i utrwalaniu tego strachu oraz przekształcaniu go w panikę pełnią rządy.

Over the last three decades, the Middle East countries have frequently witnessed popular protests against the authoritarian regimes. The question is why these protests never come to a desirable end? Regardless of the role played by foreign actors in perpetuating the authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, it seems that what causes the protests not to be pervasive and the political infrastructures not to collapse is that the protests have not been supported by the people’s majority. The present article argues that such a dearth of support refers to a fundamental cause that we named the fear cycle. This cycle includes the masses’ fear of the regime, fear of the movement’s failure and its dire consequences, and fear of the political system that is supposed to come to power after the overthrow of the incumbent government. The governments have an important role in creating and perpetuating this fear and turning it into a panic.

East Asian Authoritarian Regimes in the Context of the Arab Spring

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Trojnar E.

2014

vol. 29

issue 3

103-121

The Arab Spring which swept through the Middle East and the situation of the authoritarian states of East Asia are an interesting phenomenon for political analysis, while the majority of Asians are still not governed freely. This study examines, in a descriptive way, the situation in North Korea, Burma, China, Vietnam, and Laos in their relation to the Arab Spring as a source of inspiration for social riots that lead to systemic changes. It is based on the Western classification of political regimes and the understanding of political changes. Since 2011, the probability of a mass emergence of pro-democratic transformations in authoritarian states of East Asia has remained at the level of supposition. The strong awareness of pragmatism which guides the authoritarian leaders additionally moves this perspective to the category of wishful thinking. The observed political thaw in Burma was not a result of the Arab Spring, but another example of junta’s rationality. The communist parties in the remaining countries insistently defend the order they are familiar with, knowing that the new order could bring about as much good as bad. The North Korean dictator, regardless of the example of Near East, invariably realizes the state’s vision. The transformations in the Arab World did not bring about political reforms in East Asia. On the contrary, the Arab Spring helped those in power control their citizens even closely, which sheds light on political changes in East Asia in the future.

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1 Hemispheres. Studies on Cultures and Societies

1 Przegląd Strategiczny

1 Bagheri Dolatabadi A.

1 Shafie Seifabadi M.

1 Trojnar E.

1 2022

1 2014

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Insecurity in the Middle East: Why Do the Reformist Movements Constantly Fail? Towards a New Conceptual Framework

East Asian Authoritarian Regimes in the Context of the Arab Spring