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1

HOG CYCLE COMPUTER SIMULATION MODELLING

100%
Kwasnicki W.
Studia Ekonomiczne (Economic Studies)
|
2007
|
issue 1-2(52-53)
69-84
EN
In the first section a preliminary model of well known hog cycle is presented. The model catches the main feature of the hog cycle, namely the natural delay between investment and production ('delayed response effects'). Intentionally the model was constructed in such a way that in the further stages of development it can be used as a metaphor for more general model of business cycles. In the second part of the paper a simulation study of the hog cycle model is presented. It is shown that a delayed response effect is important factor causing cyclical mode of development but it is hardly to say that it is the only necessary factor causing cycles emergence. Emergence of fluctuations requires a tuning of different factors, such as the investment delay, the price delay, sensitivity of producers (farmers) to react on signals flowing from the market, the growth rate of the market, price elasticity of demand. It is shown also that, contrary to common view, in the long term, the hog cycle causes higher average profit of farmers compare to the situation of forcing smooth (no cycle) mode of development.
2

SPECIFIKA HOSPODÁŘSKÝCH CYKLŮ JAPONSKA

100%
Stuchlíková Z.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2011
|
vol. 59
|
issue 3
279 – 295
EN
Business cycles in developed economies have changed in many ways in the second half of the 20th century (compared to the pre-war period). The Japanese business cycles have been unique or different in certain aspects (compared to the previous development and to other developed countries or the average indicators). These particular features have intensified since the 1990´s, when Japan was hit by many serious macroeconomic problems. This study analyses key features of the Japanese post-war business cycles (with special attention to the period of the 1990´s). It compares the Japanese post-war expansions and recessions and the business cycles development in Japan and selected developed countries.
3

INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL SHOCK - DEFINITION AND TAXONOMY

100%
Nowara W., Szarzec K.
Studia Ekonomiczne (Economic Studies)
|
2007
|
issue 3-4(54-55)
249-261
EN
Since the 80s of the 20th century, being the reasons of business cycles and economic growth, technological changes have become again a subject of great interest to economists. The development of Real Business Cycle Theory and Endogenous Growth Theory have contributed to a lot of research on the causes of the business cycles and on the incorporation of a technological factor into macro-econometrics models. The objective of this paper is to review definitions of an innovation and a technology shock and to analyze relations between these two concepts. The interpretation of innovation and its taxonomy on a microeconomic level is made with a respect to the analysis of a technological shock on a macroeconomic level. The authors argue that every new idea affecting the relation of factors of production in a given enterprise can be called, at best, an innovation or a change in technology but not a shock. Due to technology diffusion, only big innovations in one enterprise could spread on the entire economy and cause a technology shock possible to identify.
4

Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: irresponsibility is idiosyncratic.

100%
Darvas Z., Rose A. K., Szapary, Gy.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2005
|
vol. 52
|
issue 12
937-959
EN
Using panels of 115 countries of world - including 21 OECD countries - and 40 years of annual data, the authors find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. Thus fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more strongly synchronized business cycles. Evidence is also found that reduced fiscal deficits increase business-cycle synchronization. The Maastricht 'convergence criteria', used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. So they may, indirectly, have moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries' abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. The empirical results of the study are economically and statistically significant, and robust.
5

Econometric Analysis of Business Activity in the Euro-zone

100%
Grzeda L. R.
Ekonomista
|
2005
|
issue 5
621-643
EN
The article contains the results of an attempt to analyze the pattern of cyclic variations in capacity utilization in the countries of Euro-zone. Two sets of data (official statistics and survey returns) were used as inputs into two different formulae. When Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to calculate the deviation of the real GNP from the trend path then less intensive fluctuations in capacity utilization were observed than when survey data were employed in an index constructed by the author. It has been empirically verified that the official statistics of Euro-zone countries display lower, than the actual, levels of output in the service sector.
6
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Detecting and predicting turning points in growth cycle using business survey data

100%
Zochowski D.
Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych
|
2005
|
vol. 14
185-203
EN
The aim of this paper is to present the possibility of analyzing cyclical changes in economic activity using business tendency survey data collected by Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED). The delta cumulation concept was presented. It is a new method of aggregation of business survey data, which enables building new time series with inbuilt trends. Therefore they can be decomposed on cycle and trend component using Hodrick-Prescott filter. The cyclical components of these cumulated time series which were highly correlated with GDP cyclical component were used to estimate probit models. The aim of this part of the analysis was to find the probabilities of turning points in Polish economy. The two best models signalled all turning points in Polish growth cycle with an accuracy of two quarters. The out-of-sample turning point was signalled with two quarters lead.The research confirmed the usefulness of RIED business tendency survey data in analysis of waves in economic activity and in predicting turning points in growth cycle in Poland during transition period.
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