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Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility

100%
Hegerty S. W.
Journal of Economics and Management
|
2022
|
vol. 44
EN
Aim/purpose – In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been “priced into” exchange rates or increased these rates’ volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach – Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai–Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify “break points” that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings – Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia-Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia-Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations – These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution – This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner.
2
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Housing loans and domestic credit in the Baltic States and Poland: Structural breaks and macroeconomic determinants

88%
Hegerty S. W.
Journal of Economics and Management
|
2020
|
vol. 42
48-69
EN
Aim/purpose – This study examines the time-series properties of home loans and do-mestic credit in Poland and the three Baltic countries, first in the univariate sense by identifying structural breaks in the series, and then using a multivariate model to identify the key drivers of loan growth.Design/methodology/approach – Structural break tests are conducted using the method of Bai & Perron (1998), while orthgonalised VARs are used for the macroeconomic model.Findings – The Estonian and Lithuanian home lending growth series have structural breaks in 2007, preceding the onset of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Estonian home lending has two additional structural breaks in 2009 and 2013. Neither of the two Polish lending series has any break after the sample begins in 2009, indicating more stability in the country’s markets. In the macroeconomic model, consumer price inflation and real effective exchange-rate appreciations have the largest influence on lending and credit growth, and Poland more affected than the Baltic countries.Research implications/limitations – This study opens the door to future research be-hind the specific causes of structural breaks in these series. While there is some evidence of an ‘early warning’ before the 2008 crisis, longer data series are needed for Poland and especially in the case of Latvia.Originality/value/contribution – This study offers insight into the lending markets in an area of the world that was significantly impacted by the 2008 crisis. Understanding the behaviour and causes of lending growth will help avoid future problems.
3
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Explaining The Prevalence Of The Informal Economy In The Baltics: An Institutional Asymmetry Perspective1

88%
Williams C. C., Horodnic I. A., Williams C. C. C. C. W., Horodnic I. A. I. A. H., Williams C. C. C. C. W. s. a. u., Horodnic I. A. u. i. a. y. c.
European Spatial Research and Policy
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2015
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vol. 22
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issue 2
EN
Reporting a 2013 Eurobarometer survey of participation in the informal economy across eight Baltic countries, this paper tentatively explains the informal economy from an institutional perspective as associated with the asymmetry between the codified laws and regulations of the formal institutions (state morality) and the norms, values and beliefs of citizens (civic morality). Identifying that this non-alignment of civic morality with the formal rules is more acute when there is greater poverty and inequality, less effective redistribution and lower levels of state intervention in the labour market and welfare, the implications for theorising and tackling the informal economy are then discussed.
4
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Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: Peacekeeping, Peacemaking or Imperial Outreach?

63%
Rakowska-Harmstone T.
Securitologia
|
2014
|
issue 1(19)
7-45
EN
The article discusses the important changes in the Russian foreign policy doctrines that occurred in the beginnings of the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Author argues that the officially claimed devotion to peacemaking and peacekeeping are in fact manifestations of the Russian imperial outreach. The model of international relations promoted by Moscow in fact resembles the American 19th century Monroe Doctrine. Thus, the foreign policy doctrine and the potential national conflicts in the post-Soviet territory may become triggers for Russian actions aiming at restoring the Russian Empire.
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