Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

Results found: 4

first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last

Search results

Search:
in the keywords:  Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
help Sort By:

help Limit search:
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
1
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Badanie zmienności cyklicznej czułych wskaźników koniunktury

100%
Matkowski Z.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
|
vol. 64
93-120
EN
The paper presents the scope, methods and some results of the analysis of cyclical variability of morę than 100 economic variables pertinent to the cyclical movement of Poland’s economy over the period 1975-1998 (filled with monthly or ąuarterly data). The original database includes 107 individual variables and 17 composite reference indicators, all expressed as uniform volume indices (1992 avg. = 100). The research was accomplished in three phases: (a) decomposition of time series using X11-ARIMA, coupled with seasonal adjustment and MCD m.a. smoothing; (b) analysis of cyclical components isolated by PAT procedure (or altematively, by linear regression); (c) analysis of cross-correlation against the reference cycle and the determination of leads and lags. The number of variables was successively reduced, according to the adopted selection criteria. The finał set includes ca. 60 variables accepted for the construction of composite indicators of business activity. A subsidiary database including 60 variables from business surveys has been established in the last two years to be used in composite qualitative indicators reflecting the business climate.
2
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Analiza spektralna wahań aktywności gospodarczej w Polsce

100%
Łuczyński W., Matkowski Z.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
|
vol. 64
213-231
EN
The general indicator of business activity for Poland (GCI), developed by Z. Matkowski, and its component parts reflecting the production activity of five major sectors of economy (industry, construction, agriculture, transport and trade), filled with monthly data covering the period of 1975-1997, have been subject to spectral analysis in order to identify periodic fluctuations. The analysis included various kinds of data (raw data, seasonal components, trend-cycle, trend deviations, and data transformed by Fourier analysis). Unit root tests were applied to distinguish between trend stationary and difference stationary time series. Apart from the seasonal oscillations, the GCI time series reveal business cycles ranging between 7 and 11.5 years (average 9.5 years). These cycles are well reflected by the dynamics of industry and transport. Construction and agriculture seem to reveal even longer cycles while the retail trade reveals a shorter trade cycle. These findings are largely in line with the results of a parallel examination of the growth cycles seen in the deseasonalized, detrended and MCD-smoothed time series. However, due to a relatively short period covered by the analysis and the change in economic system, these findings may not hołd in the future.
3
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Syntetyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych IRG SGH (edycja 1999)

100%
Matkowski Z.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
|
vol. 64
263-302
EN
This is a follow-up study to an earlier analysis by the author, presented in 1998. Eight altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on survey data and resembling the EU concept of economic sentiment indicator, have been developed and tested in this study. All of them were filled with the RIED survey data for industry, construction and trade, supplemented by consumer sentiment indicator provided by RIED or Demoskop and by the Warsaw Stock Exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of generał indicator, covering the period ffom November 1993 till December 1998, have been analyzed, using XII-ARIMA and CCF procedures, in order to find the most adeąuate formula. Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZHG have been conffonted with the reference index of economic activity GCI, developed by the author. As the result, three variants of the generał indicator have been selected for further testing. The finał choice will be madę in the course of the forthcoming analysis.
4
Publication available in full text mode
Content available

Syntetyczne wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych GUS (edycja 1999)

100%
Matkowski Z.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
1999
|
vol. 64
235-261
EN
This is a follow-up study to an earlier analysis by the author. Five altemative formulas of a generał indicator of economic activity for Poland, based on survey data, have been developed and tested in this study. Ali of them were filled with the CSO survey data for manufacturing, construction and retail trade, supplemented with consumer sentiment indicator provided by Demoskop and by the Warsaw exchange share - price - index. The resulting time series of general indicator, covering the period from November 1993 till December 1998, have been analyzed, using XI1-ARIMA and CCF procedures, in order to find the most adequate formula. Cyclical components of the generał indicator ZGG have been confronted with the reference index of economic activity GCI, developed by the author. As the result, three variants of the generał indicator have been selected for further testing. The final choice will be made in the course of the forthcoming analysis.
first rewind previous Page / 1 next fast forward last
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.